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Bolton crestBolton
v
Bradford crestBradford

League One | Sat 09 May, 20:00

Bolton v Bradford Stats

Data last updated: Wed 10 Jun 2026, 19:34 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bolton face Bradford in League One on Sat 09 May, 20:00. How do I track Bolton’s transition threat? Bolton come in with 5 recent points and 2.2 goals per match, while Bradford have 6 points and 1.2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Bradford Win

  • At 4.5, Bradford Win implies roughly 22%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 42%.
  • Bradford’s home numbers are the foundation of the bet.
  • Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Bolton.
  • Bradford have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Bradford Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Bolton sit 5 in the table, while Bradford sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 42% for Bradford Win sits against roughly 22% implied by the current price. Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Bolton. Bradford’s home numbers are the foundation of the bet.

Model chance vs price42% model chance against roughly 22% implied
Strong positive
Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points.Visible data support
Positive
Bradford have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Bradford’s home numbers are the foundation of the bet.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Bradford Win is the preferred angle because bradford’s home numbers are the foundation of the bet. Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Bolton. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Bradford Win evidence

Bradford’s home numbers are the foundation of the bet.

Bradford have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 5 for Bolton.

Bradford have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.2 conceded per match, which helps the Bradford Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Bolton sit 5 in the table, while Bradford sit 4, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Bradford Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Bolton5
    Avg corners for
    Bradford5.8
    Bolton9.8
    Avg total corners
    Bradford9.8
    Bolton2
    Avg yellow cards
    Bradford1.8
    Bolton19
    Avg shots
    Bradford12.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 68% vs implied 58% · edge +10.5 pts
    1.73
    Check odds @ 1.73
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    Over 4.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 56%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Bolton2.2
    Avg goals scored
    Bradford1.2
    Bolton2
    Avg goals conceded
    Bradford1.2
    Bolton80%
    BTTS rate
    Bradford80%
    Bolton60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Bradford40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 76% vs implied 56% · edge +20.4 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 57%
    1.85
    Check odds @ 1.85
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 66%
    1.28
    Check odds @ 1.28
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 30%
    3.4
    Check odds @ 3.4
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

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    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickBradford to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 22% · edge +19.5 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Bradford Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    Bradford to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Bolton

    LDDWL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 102W 5D 3L
    02 May 2026H Luton2-3
    25 Apr 2026A Bradford1-1
    18 Apr 2026H Huddersfield3-3
    14 Apr 2026H Stevenage5-1
    11 Apr 2026A Cardiff0-2

    Bradford

    WDDDL
    Last 51W 3D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 4D 3L
    02 May 2026A Exeter City2-1
    25 Apr 2026H Bolton1-1
    21 Apr 2026H Plymouth1-1
    18 Apr 2026A Barnsley2-2
    11 Apr 2026H Stevenage0-1
    Market aligned with main pickBradford to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 22% · edge +19.5 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 72%
    1.97
    Check odds @ 1.97
    Bradford Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    2Bolton wins
    6Draws
    1Bradford wins
    25 Apr 2026Bradford v Bolton1-1
    02 Dec 2025Bolton v Bradford3-0
    22 Nov 2025Bolton v Bradford0-0
    06 Mar 2021Bradford v Bolton1-1
    27 Oct 2020Bolton v Bradford1-0
    05 Sep 2020Bolton v Bradford1-2
    Market aligned with main pickBradford to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 22% · edge +19.5 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 48%
    1.95
    Check odds @ 1.95
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Bradford to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    League One

    Bolton49
    Played
    Bradford48
    Bolton1.6
    Avg goals for
    Bradford1.2
    Bolton1.1
    Avg goals against
    Bradford1.1
    Bolton13
    Clean sheets
    Bradford14
    Market aligned with main pickBradford to WinBet365 guide price · Model 42% vs implied 22% · edge +19.5 pts
    4.5
    Check odds @ 4.5
    Load more odds for this section
    Bradford Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 52%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Season data supports Bradford to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    4Bradford77462211137
    5Bolton75461918918
    Bolton sit in position 5, while Bradford sit in position 4, so table pressure belongs in the Bradford Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Bolton Over 2.5
    40%Bradford Over 2.5
    1.89H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Bolton sit at 60% and Bradford sit at 40% with the H2H average at 1.89 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

    Bolton v Bradford prediction

    Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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    Next step

    Betting context

    Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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