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Bohemians crestBohemians
v
St Patrick's Athl. crestSt Patrick's Athl.

Premier Division | Fri 26 Jun, 20:00

Bohemians v St Patrick's Athl. Stats

Data last updated: Thu 25 Jun 2026, 05:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Bohemians host St Patrick's Athletic in a tightly poised Premier Division clash at Dalymount Park, with just two points separating the sides. Bohemians come off a confident 3-0 home win but have shown defensive vulnerabilities recently, conceding 11 goals in their last six games. St Patrick's Athletic boast a strong defensive record, conceding only three goals in their last six matches, yet have struggled to win away in their last four league outings. Both teams are expected to engage in a tactical midfield battle, with Bohemians seeking to balance attacking intent and defensive solidity, while St Patrick's aim to maintain their disciplined shape and exploit transition opportunities. This matchup promises a tense, low-scoring contest where neither side can afford to lose ground in the title race.

BT4Y match pick

Draw

  • Bohemians and St Patrick's Athletic separated by just two points in the league standings.
  • Bohemians scored 3-0 in their last home game but have conceded 11 goals in their past six matches.
  • St Patrick's Athletic have conceded only 3 goals in their last six games, showing defensive resilience.
  • St Patrick's Athletic are winless in their last four away league matches, indicating potential road struggles.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 1.67 goals, suggesting a low-scoring, tight encounter.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors a draw given the narrow two-point gap and recent form trends. Bohemians' attacking threat is offset by defensive fragility, while St Patrick's defensive discipline and away difficulties balance the contest. The average goals per game between these teams is low, supporting a stalemate outcome. Although the are slightly short, the tactical balance and defensive solidity on both sides justify a cautious backing of the draw. Reduced stakes are advised due to the price sensitivity and the potential for an early goal to shift momentum.

Model Chance vs Implied ChanceModel chance 28.9% vs implied 30.3%
Neutral
Recent Defensive FormBohemians conceded 11 goals last 6 games; St Patrick's conceded 3
Positive
Away FormSt Patrick's winless in last 4 away matches
Positive
Head-to-Head Goal Average1.67 goals per game in recent meetings
Positive
Price SensitivitySlightly short odds suggest cautious staking
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

The draw is a logical outcome given the tactical discipline and defensive strengths of St Patrick's Athletic combined with Bohemians' home attacking threat tempered by recent defensive lapses. Both teams' recent form and narrow league gap suggest a cautious, tightly contested match likely to end level.

Main risk

An early goal by Bohemians could disrupt the expected tactical balance, forcing St Patrick's Athletic to open up and increasing the chance of a decisive result.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“This fixture is a chess match where defensive organization and midfield control will dictate the outcome. The draw reflects the balance of attacking promise and defensive caution on both sides.”

Key Data Signals

Draw evidence

Bohemians and St Patrick's Athletic separated by just two points in the league standings.

Bohemians scored 3-0 in their last home game but have conceded 11 goals in their past six matches.

St Patrick's Athletic have conceded only 3 goals in their last six games, showing defensive resilience.

St Patrick's Athletic are winless in their last four away league matches, indicating potential road struggles.

What To Watch In The Data

Draw notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.9, indicating low-scoring encounters.
  • This trend, combined with recent defensive form, suggests a match tempo favoring tight defensive control and limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with an Over 2.5 Goals trend panel that signals caution for high-scoring outcomes.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Bohemians7
Avg corners for
St Patrick's Athl.6.5
Bohemians10.67
Avg total corners
St Patrick's Athl.12
Bohemians2.33
Avg yellow cards
St Patrick's Athl.2.5
Bohemians17.67
Avg shots
St Patrick's Athl.13.25
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetUK guide price · Model 69% vs implied 60% · edge +9.1 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Bohemians average slightly more shots and corners per game, reflecting their attacking intent, while St Patrick's maintain disciplined defensive positioning, resulting in fewer shots conceded. Both teams have similar yellow card averages, indicating a balanced physical contest with moderate fouling and set-piece opportunities.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Bohemians1.8
Avg goals scored
St Patrick's Athl.0.8
Bohemians1.8
Avg goals conceded
St Patrick's Athl.0.4
Bohemians80%
BTTS rate
St Patrick's Athl.0%
Bohemians100%
Over 2.5 goals
St Patrick's Athl.0%
Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 53% vs implied 49% · edge +4 pts
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Load more odds for this section
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 71%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%
3.75
Check odds @ 3.75
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 47%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Both teams exhibit contrasting goal profiles: Bohemians have a high over 2.5 goals rate but recent defensive frailties, while St Patrick's maintain a strong defensive record with no BTTS in recent matches. This suggests a low-scoring game with limited goal exchanges, favoring BTTS No and under 3.5 goals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickDrawBetUK guide price · Model 29% vs implied 32% · edge -3.4 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
St Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Bohemians to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The draw market is priced slightly short compared to the model's probability, indicating a cautious value scenario. The reflect the tight league standings and recent form balance, but reduced stakes are recommended due to limited upside at current pricing.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Bohemians

WLLWL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 2D 3L
22 Jun 2026A Shelbourne3-0
19 Jun 2026H Dundalk1-2
12 Jun 2026A Derry City1-4
29 May 2026A Sligo Rovers3-1
25 May 2026H Shamrock Rovers1-2

St Patrick's Athl.

WWLDL
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
19 Jun 2026H Sligo Rovers2-0
12 Jun 2026H Drogheda United2-0
29 May 2026A Shamrock Rovers0-1
22 May 2026A Derry City0-0
15 May 2026H Shelbourne0-1
Market aligned with main pickDrawBetUK guide price · Model 29% vs implied 32% · edge -3.4 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 74%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 68%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
St Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Bohemians to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Bohemians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Recent form data shows Bohemians with a mixed record, scoring 1.8 goals and conceding 1.8 per game, reflecting attacking potency but defensive vulnerability. St Patrick's Athletic display stronger defensive form, conceding only 0.4 goals per game while scoring 0.8, indicating a more cautious but effective approach. This contrast supports a tight contest likely to end in a draw.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Bohemians wins
5Draws
3St Patrick's Athl. wins
24 Apr 2026St Patrick's Athl. v Bohemians3-1
08 Feb 2026Bohemians v St Patrick's Athl.0-0
20 Oct 2025Bohemians v St Patrick's Athl.0-0
04 Jul 2025St Patrick's Athl. v Bohemians0-0
25 Apr 2025Bohemians v St Patrick's Athl.2-1
14 Mar 2025St Patrick's Athl. v Bohemians3-0
Market aligned with main pickDrawBetUK guide price · Model 29% vs implied 32% · edge -3.4 pts
3.1
Check odds @ 3.1
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 57%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Bohemians to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
The head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athletic shows a tight rivalry with an average of 1.9 goals per game over ten matches. Recent meetings have been low-scoring and competitive, providing moderate support for a draw outcome but emphasizing the defensive resilience of both sides rather than attacking control.
Season team stats

Premier Division

Bohemians23
Played
St Patrick's Athl.21
Bohemians1.6
Avg goals for
St Patrick's Athl.1.7
Bohemians1.2
Avg goals against
St Patrick's Athl.0.8
Bohemians8
Clean sheets
St Patrick's Athl.8
Best odds for this sectionSt Patrick's Athl. Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 55% vs implied 51% · edge +4.3 pts
1.98
Check odds @ 1.98
Load more odds for this section
St Patrick's Athl. to WinBetMGM guide price · model 45%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Bohemians to WinBet365 guide price · model 39%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Bohemians Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Season-long statistics reveal Bohemians have scored 33 goals but conceded 27, highlighting attacking strength offset by defensive issues. St Patrick's Athletic have a superior defensive record with just 17 goals conceded and 34 scored, underpinning their high league position. These profiles support a balanced match where defensive solidity meets attacking ambition, favoring a draw.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2St Patrick's Athl.3821115518
3Bohemians372310769
The narrow two-point gap between third-placed Bohemians and second-placed St Patrick's Athletic intensifies the stakes, encouraging both teams to avoid defeat. This pressure promotes cautious tactics and risk management, reinforcing the likelihood of a draw in this pivotal fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Bohemians Over 2.5
0%St Patrick's Athl. Over 2.5
1.9H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 1.9, indicating low-scoring encounters. This trend, combined with recent defensive form, suggests a match tempo favoring tight defensive control and limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with an Over 2.5 Goals trend panel that signals caution for high-scoring outcomes.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Bohemians v St Patrick's Athl. prediction

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