Benfica

Heart Of Midlothian

UEFA Europa League | Thu 06 Aug, 20:00

Benfica v Heart Of Midlothian Stats

Data last updated: Wed 05 Aug 2026, 03:45 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Benfica hosts Heart Of Midlothian in a high-stakes Europa League qualifier where Benfica's recent offensive surge contrasts sharply with Hearts' defensive struggles. Benfica have scored 17 goals in their last six matches, including a dominant 5-0 European victory, while Hearts have conceded 12 goals in six games and face pressure to stabilize after four straight defeats. Benfica's attacking momentum and Hearts' vulnerabilities set the stage for an open, high-scoring encounter with tactical battles around possession control, defensive compactness, and transition threats.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

Benfica have averaged over 4 goals per game in their last six matches, showing prolific scoring form.
Hearts have conceded 12 goals in six matches, highlighting defensive fragility.
Benfica's recent 5-0 European win featured four goals from Vangelis Pavlidis, their key attacking threat.
Hearts' late-game collapses and defensive lapses increase the likelihood of multiple goals.
The tactical contrast between Benfica's possession and Hearts' counter-attacking urgency suggests an open game with scoring chances.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model rates Over 3.5 Goals at a 58% chance, slightly above the implied market probability of 55.6%, indicating modest value. Benfica's recent matches average over 4 goals per game, supported by their ability to convert territorial control into goals quickly. Hearts' defensive record, including 12 goals conceded in six matches and a heavy European exit, suggests susceptibility to conceding multiple goals. The attacking roles of players like Pavlidis and Hearts' need to push forward for chances further support a high-scoring game. Thinner data for Hearts means tactical and form context remain crucial.

Benfica scoring rate4.17 goals per game (last 6 matches)

Strong positive

Hearts defensive record12 goals conceded in last 6 matches

Strong positive

Market implied chance55.6%

Neutral

Model chance58%

Positive

Data qualityLimited Hearts data increases uncertainty

Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect Benfica to leverage their attacking momentum and home advantage to create numerous scoring opportunities against a vulnerable Hearts defense. The data and tactical context point to a match with multiple goals, as Benfica's offensive firepower meets Hearts' defensive frailties and need to respond offensively. This combination makes Over 3.5 Goals a compelling selection for this Europa League qualifier.

Main risk

Defending well may keep the first leg close, but Hearts still need enough attacking presence to stop Benfica committing players forward without hesitation.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Attacking momentum and defensive vulnerabilities

“Benfica's recent goal-scoring spree and Hearts' defensive lapses set the stage for a high-scoring encounter. Containing Pavlidis and managing transitions will be key, but the attacking momentum suggests goals are likely throughout the match.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

Benfica have averaged over 4 goals per game in their last six matches, showing prolific scoring form.

Hearts have conceded 12 goals in six matches, highlighting defensive fragility.

Benfica's recent 5-0 European win featured four goals from Vangelis Pavlidis, their key attacking threat.

Hearts' late-game collapses and defensive lapses increase the likelihood of multiple goals.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

Recent matches involving Benfica have produced an average of 4.17 goals over the last six games, indicating a trend toward high-tempo, open play with frequent scoring.
Hearts' defensive record complements this trend, suggesting the fixture is likely to follow suit.
The Over 2.5 Goals trend panel supports the likelihood of multiple goals through sustained attacking pressure and defensive gaps on both sides.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Load more odds for this section

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 30%

6.6

Check odds @ 6.6

Heart Of Midlothian to WinBetfred guide price · model 21%

Check odds @ 17

Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

DrawBetfred guide price · model 21%

9.5

Check odds @ 9.5

Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

The Over 3.5 Goals market is priced at 1.8 with an implied probability of 55.6%, slightly below the model's 58% chance, indicating a small positive . This pricing reflects bookmaker in a high-scoring game given Benfica's prolific scoring and Hearts' defensive issues. The market is not overly short-priced, making this a reasonable value bet without requiring drift.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Benfica3

Avg goals scored

Heart Of Midlothian-

Benfica1

Avg goals conceded

Heart Of Midlothian-

Benfica50%

BTTS rate

Heart Of Midlothian-

Benfica100%

Over 2.5 goals

Heart Of Midlothian-

Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 58% · edge +0.2 pts

1.73

Check odds @ 1.73

Load more odds for this section

BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 59%

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%

1.08

Check odds @ 1.08

Under 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 26%

3.4

Check odds @ 3.4

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Benfica's matches have averaged over 4 goals recently, with a 50% BTTS rate, showing frequent scoring from both sides. Hearts' defensive struggles and occasional goals scored through set-pieces suggest multiple goals are likely. The attacking styles and tactical openness forecast a game where Over 2.5 Goals is a baseline expectation, supporting the Over 3.5 selection.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Benfica

Last 51W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 1L

30 Jul 2026H FC ST. Gallen5-0

23 Jul 2026A FC ST. Gallen1-2

Heart Of Midlothian

Last 50W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 0L

No recent match sample is available for Heart Of Midlothian yet.

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 6

Load more odds for this section

Heart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 30%

6.6

Check odds @ 6.6

Heart Of Midlothian to WinBetfred guide price · model 21%

Check odds @ 17

Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

DrawBetfred guide price · model 21%

9.5

Check odds @ 9.5

Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

Benfica's recent form is characterized by high-scoring wins, including a 5-0 European victory, demonstrating strong offensive output and . Hearts have suffered four consecutive defeats, conceding multiple goals and showing late-game defensive lapses. This form contrast suggests Benfica will control the tempo and create scoring chances, while Hearts may struggle to maintain defensive stability throughout the match.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Benfica0

Avg corners for

Heart Of Midlothian-

Benfica0

Avg total corners

Heart Of Midlothian-

Benfica0

Avg yellow cards

Heart Of Midlothian-

Benfica0

Avg shots

Heart Of Midlothian-

Best odds for this sectionOver 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Highlighted because this is the strongest available price in this section.

1.98

Check odds @ 1.98

Load more odds for this section

Over 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 29%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 35%

1.33

Check odds @ 1.33

While specific corner and card data is limited, Benfica's attacking control and territorial control imply sustained pressure and repeated deliveries into the box. Hearts' defensive frailty and fouling profile suggest a contested match with set-piece opportunities. The shot volume and pressure dynamics favor a game rich in attacking actions and potential disciplinary incidents.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Benfica wins

0Draws

0Heart Of Midlothian wins

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts

2.25

Check odds @ 2.25

Load more odds for this section

Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Heart Of Midlothian to WinBetfred guide price · model 21%

Check odds @ 17

DrawBetfred guide price · model 21%

9.5

Check odds @ 9.5

Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

There is no recent head-to-head data between Benfica and Heart Of Midlothian to provide direct historical context. Therefore, the focus shifts to current form, tactical matchups, and recent performance trends to assess the likely outcome and goal-scoring potential in this fixture.

Season team stats

UEFA Europa League

Benfica2

Played

Heart Of Midlothian0

Benfica3

Avg goals for

Heart Of Midlothian0

Benfica1

Avg goals against

Heart Of Midlothian0

Benfica1

Clean sheets

Heart Of Midlothian0

Best odds for this sectionHeart Of Midlothian Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · Model 30% vs implied 15% · edge +15 pts

6.6

Check odds @ 6.6

Load more odds for this section

Heart Of Midlothian to WinBetfred guide price · model 21%

Check odds @ 17

Benfica Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 78%

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

Benfica to WinBet365 guide price · model 73%

1.11

Check odds @ 1.11

Benfica's season stats reveal a potent attack averaging over 4 goals per game in recent fixtures, supported by a relatively solid defense conceding fewer goals. Hearts' season shows defensive vulnerabilities with 12 goals conceded in six matches and limited scoring. These season-long trends underpin the expectation of a high-scoring game favoring Benfica's offensive strengths against Hearts' defensive weaknesses.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Benfica Over 2.5

-Heart Of Midlothian Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

Recent matches involving Benfica have produced an average of 4.17 goals over the last six games, indicating a trend toward high-tempo, open play with frequent scoring. Hearts' defensive record complements this trend, suggesting the fixture is likely to follow suit. The Over 2.5 Goals trend panel supports the likelihood of multiple goals through sustained attacking pressure and defensive gaps on both sides.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

Benfica v Heart Of Midlothian Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Benfica

Heart Of Midlothian

Next step

Your privacy choices

Football Stats Hub

Benfica v Heart Of Midlothian Stats

Match Report

Over 3.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Benfica

Heart Of Midlothian

Related football research

Prediction context

More stats pages

Competition and hubs

Next step