Football Stats Hub

Avellino crestAvellino
v
Palermo crestPalermo

Serie B | Sun 13 Sep, 16:15

Avellino v Palermo Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:10 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Avellino and Palermo meet in a Serie B clash where both teams have shown competitive intensity early in the season. Palermo leads the table with nine points, while Avellino sits in sixth with six points. Both sides have demonstrated attacking intent, but their physical approach and midfield battles suggest a potentially heated encounter. The match could see tactical fouling and aggressive challenges as both teams seek control, setting the stage for a contest with disciplinary action likely to be a significant factor.

BT4Y best bet

Over 4.5 Cards

  • Both teams average 2.67 yellow cards per game, indicating a physical style of play.
  • Palermo ranks first in Serie B, often engaging in intense matches with high card counts.
  • Recent form shows both teams involved in games with multiple cards, supporting the Over 4.5 Cards pick.
  • Player data highlights several midfielders and defenders with high foul and card risk, increasing card potential.
  • The model estimates a 65.7% chance for Over 4.5 Cards, showing strong statistical backing.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies Over 4.5 Cards as a strong value bet with a 65.7% chance, well above the implied 50% chance from . Both Avellino and Palermo average nearly three yellow cards per match, reflecting a combative playing style. Key players like N. Faticanti have high card risk, while midfield battles and tactical fouling are likely. The level is high at 83%, making this a statistically supported pick with solid football reasoning.

Model Chance65.7%
Strong positive
Implied Chance50%
Positive
Value Edge15.7%
Strong positive
Confidence83%
Strong positive
Player Card RiskHigh for key midfielders
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a tightly contested Serie B fixture where physicality and tactical fouling will be prominent. Both teams have shown a propensity for aggressive play, and the statistical data supports a high likelihood of multiple cards. This bet aligns well with the match dynamics and player disciplinary profiles, making Over 4.5 Cards a sensible selection.

Main risk

The card line needs match pressure and repeated duels; a controlled game state would weaken the booking angle.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · cards market

“This fixture features two combative teams with several players prone to fouling and bookings, making Over 4.5 Cards a compelling market to watch.”

Key Data Signals

Over 4.5 Cards evidence

Both teams average 2.67 yellow cards per game, indicating a physical style of play.

Palermo ranks first in Serie B, often engaging in intense matches with high card counts.

Recent form shows both teams involved in games with multiple cards, supporting the Over 4.5 Cards pick.

Player data highlights several midfielders and defenders with high foul and card risk, increasing card potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 4.5 Cards notes

  • In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating moderately open games.
  • While the trend panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals, the physicality and tactical fouling in these encounters also correlate with higher card counts, reinforcing the disciplinary market angle.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Avellino2.67
Avg corners for
Palermo4
Avellino9.67
Avg total corners
Palermo9.5
Avellino2.67
Avg yellow cards
Palermo3
Avellino9
Avg shots
Palermo15
Market aligned with main pickOver 4.5 CardsBetfred guide price · Model 65% vs implied 50% · edge +15 pts
2
Check odds @ 2
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
2.75
Check odds @ 2.75
The average of 2.67 yellow cards per team per game, combined with moderate corner counts and high shot volumes from Palermo, indicates sustained pressure and contested possession. This environment fosters fouls and cards, especially in midfield and defensive zones.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Avellino1.67
Avg goals scored
Palermo2.33
Avellino0.67
Avg goals conceded
Palermo1
Avellino33%
BTTS rate
Palermo67%
Avellino67%
Over 2.5 goals
Palermo67%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 42%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Both teams have a 67% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating open play and attacking intent. However, the focus on physical midfield battles and fouling suggests that while goals may flow, disciplinary actions will be a key feature of this encounter.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Palermo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 63%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Palermo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Avellino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
The Over 4.5 Cards market offers clear value with implying a 50% chance, while the model estimates a 65.7% probability. This significant is supported by both teams' aggressive playing styles and high average card counts, making the price attractive for standard stakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Avellino

WWL
Last 52W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 1L
06 Sep 2026A Modena1-0
29 Aug 2026H Vicenza Virtus3-0
22 Aug 2026H Arezzo1-2

Palermo

WWW
Last 53W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 0L
07 Sep 2026H Sampdoria3-1
30 Aug 2026A Arezzo3-2
23 Aug 2026H Juve Stabia1-0
Best odds for this sectionPalermo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.4 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 82%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Palermo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 52%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Avellino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Recent matches for both teams have featured multiple cards, with Avellino and Palermo averaging close to three yellows each per game. This trend underlines the likelihood of disciplinary action continuing, supporting the Over 4.5 Cards selection in this fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Avellino wins
2Draws
5Palermo wins
05 Apr 2026Palermo v Avellino2-0
20 Dec 2025Avellino v Palermo2-2
13 Mar 2022Avellino v Palermo1-2
31 Oct 2021Palermo v Avellino1-1
26 May 2021Avellino v Palermo1-0
23 May 2021Palermo v Avellino1-0
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +14.3 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 62%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Palermo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Avellino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
DrawBet365 guide price · model 25%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
The ten previous meetings between Avellino and Palermo have averaged 2.3 goals per game, showing balanced contests. While goal trends are moderate, the matches have often been competitive and physical, suggesting that disciplinary actions have been a notable feature, lending some support to the Over 4.5 Cards pick.
Season team stats

Serie B

Avellino3
Played
Palermo3
Avellino1.7
Avg goals for
Palermo2.3
Avellino0.7
Avg goals against
Palermo1
Avellino2
Clean sheets
Palermo1
Best odds for this sectionPalermo Draw No BetBetfred guide price · Model 66% vs implied 51% · edge +14.4 pts
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Load more odds for this section
Palermo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 57%
2
Check odds @ 2
Avellino to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Avellino Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 45%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Season-long data shows both teams maintain a high average of yellow cards per match, reflecting a consistent pattern of physical play. This sustained disciplinary profile supports expectations for a card-heavy game in this Serie B fixture.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Palermo933004
10Avellino632013
Palermo's position at the top of the table and Avellino's competitive standing suggest both teams are motivated to play assertively. The stakes of maintaining or improving league positions may increase match intensity and fouling, contributing to a higher card count.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

67%Avellino Over 2.5
67%Palermo Over 2.5
2.3H2H avg goals
In the last ten meetings, the average goals scored is 2.3, indicating moderately open games. While the trend panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals, the physicality and tactical fouling in these encounters also correlate with higher card counts, reinforcing the disciplinary market angle.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Football predictions hub

Find the latest football previews and betting angles from the main predictions hub.

More stats pages

Mantova v SampdoriaSerie B · Sun 13 Sep 16:15

Competition and hubs

corners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hub

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

View match centre