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Atletico Paranaense crestAtletico Paranaense
v
Bahia crestBahia

Serie A | Sun 20 Sep, 23:30

Atletico Paranaense v Bahia Stats

Data last updated: Sat 19 Sep 2026, 08:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Paranaense host Bahia in a Serie A clash where both teams bring contrasting rhythms and tactical challenges. Atletico return after a long break with a reorganized defense and strong home resilience, having lost just once at Arena MRV this season. Bahia arrive sharper, riding momentum from consecutive league wins and boasting high possession and shot volumes. The midfield battle will be pivotal, with Atletico aiming to disrupt Bahia's build-up while Bahia look to exploit spaces and convert possession into clear chances. Both sides possess attacking threats and defensive vulnerabilities, setting the stage for a competitive encounter with goals likely at both ends.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

  • Bahia averages 14.4 attempts and 5.7 shots on target per match, indicating sustained attacking pressure.
  • Atletico Paranaense have conceded 42 goals in 37 competitive matches, showing defensive vulnerability.
  • Atletico have lost only one home league match this season, highlighting strong home form.
  • Both teams have a high BTTS rate recently: Atletico 100%, Bahia 80%.
  • Recent meetings between the teams are balanced, with both sides capable of scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, supported by Bahia's consistent attacking volume and Atletico Paranaense's defensive reshaping that has introduced vulnerabilities. Both teams have shown recent scoring form and high shot volumes, with Atletico's home defensive record less dominant than usual due to squad changes. The price at 1.67 offers positive value with a 16.1% edge. While Atletico's recent clean sheets are promising, Bahia's possession control and attacking efficiency suggest goals at both ends are likely in this fixture.

Model Chance76% probability for BTTS Yes
Strong positive
Implied Odds1.67 decimal (59.9% implied chance)
Positive
Value Edge16.1% positive value
Strong positive
Recent FormAtletico BTTS rate 100%, Bahia BTTS rate 80%
Strong positive
Defensive VulnerabilityAtletico conceded 42 goals in 37 matches
Positive
Main risk

Higher-risk approaches target specific outcomes like Correct Score, which carry lower probability but higher potential returns.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Both Teams to Score

“This fixture features two teams with clear attacking intent but defensive adjustments that leave gaps. The balance of home advantage and Bahia's momentum points to a match where both sides are likely to score.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Bahia averages 14.4 attempts and 5.7 shots on target per match, indicating sustained attacking pressure.

Atletico Paranaense have conceded 42 goals in 37 competitive matches, showing defensive vulnerability.

Atletico have lost only one home league match this season, highlighting strong home form.

Both teams have a high BTTS rate recently: Atletico 100%, Bahia 80%.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.5, reflecting a moderately open scoring trend.
  • Both teams have an 80% rate for Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating a tempo and attacking style conducive to multiple goals.
  • This trend suggests the fixture will feature offensive opportunities and goal-scoring chances, complementing the BTTS Yes market with a likelihood of goals at both ends.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atletico Paranaense2.2
Avg goals scored
Bahia2.6
Atletico Paranaense2.4
Avg goals conceded
Bahia1.6
Atletico Paranaense100%
BTTS rate
Bahia80%
Atletico Paranaense80%
Over 2.5 goals
Bahia80%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 78%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Both teams have shown strong attacking tendencies recently, with Atletico Paranaense scoring 2.2 goals per game and Bahia 2.6. Both sides have high BTTS rates—100% for Atletico and 80% for Bahia—highlighting their propensity to both score and concede. Bahia's possession control and shot volume suggest sustained pressure, while Atletico's defensive vulnerabilities increase the likelihood of goals at both ends.

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Serie A hubrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Load more odds for this section
Bahia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Bahia to WinBetUK guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 19%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
The Both Teams to Score market is priced at 1.67 with an implied chance of 59.9%, while the model estimates a 76% probability, indicating a positive value opportunity. This price reflects market in goals from both sides, supported by Bahia's attacking volume and Atletico's defensive reshaping. The offer a good balance between risk and reward, making the BTTS Yes selection attractive without being overly short-priced.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Atletico Paranaense5.25
Avg corners for
Bahia5.75
Atletico Paranaense11
Avg total corners
Bahia11.25
Atletico Paranaense2
Avg yellow cards
Bahia2.5
Atletico Paranaense17
Avg shots
Bahia15
Best odds for this sectionOver 4.5 CardsBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 58% · edge +2.5 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Load more odds for this section
Over 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · model 69%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Over 5.5 CardsBetfred guide price
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 10.5 CornersBetfred guide price
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
The match features active attacking play from both teams, with Bahia averaging 6 corners per game and Atletico 4.6, indicating frequent wide attacks and set-piece opportunities. Both teams average 1.8 to 2.6 yellow cards per match, reflecting a competitive and physical contest. Shot volumes are high and balanced, with both sides averaging 6.6 shots on target, supporting an open game with multiple goal attempts.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atletico Paranaense

DLDWD
Last 51W 3D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 4D 1L
12 Sep 2026A Coritiba3-3
06 Sep 2026A Cruzeiro1-3
30 Aug 2026H Fluminense3-3
25 Aug 2026A Botafogo3-2
15 Aug 2026H RB Bragantino1-1

Bahia

WWWWD
Last 54W 1D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 5D 0L
15 Sep 2026H Remo2-1
05 Sep 2026A RB Bragantino3-2
30 Aug 2026H Internacional3-2
23 Aug 2026A Vitoria2-0
16 Aug 2026A Chapecoense-sc3-3
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 75% vs implied 60% · edge +15 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Load more odds for this section
Bahia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Bahia to WinBetUK guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 19%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 48%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Recent form data shows Atletico Paranaense with a perfect 100% BTTS rate and Bahia with 80%, indicating both teams have consistently scored and conceded in recent matches. Atletico's 2.2 goals for and 2.4 against per game reflect an open style, while Bahia's 2.6 goals for and 1.6 against suggest effective attacking with relatively better defense. This form supports expectations of goals at both ends in the upcoming fixture.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

3Atletico Paranaense wins
2Draws
5Bahia wins
02 Apr 2026Bahia v Atletico Paranaense3-0
24 Nov 2024Bahia v Atletico Paranaense1-1
10 Jul 2024Atletico Paranaense v Bahia1-3
12 Nov 2023Bahia v Atletico Paranaense1-1
16 Jul 2023Atletico Paranaense v Bahia2-0
13 Jul 2022Atletico Paranaense v Bahia2-1
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 46% vs implied 31% · edge +15 pts
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Load more odds for this section
Bahia to WinBetUK guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 60%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 19%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The head-to-head record over the last ten matches is balanced, with five wins for Atletico Paranaense, four for Bahia, and one draw. The average goals per game in these encounters is 2.5, indicating neither side dominates defensively. This parity supports the expectation that both teams can score, as previous meetings have regularly seen goals from both sides, reinforcing the BTTS Yes pick.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

Atletico Paranaense27
Played
Bahia0
Atletico Paranaense1.5
Avg goals for
Bahia-
Atletico Paranaense1.1
Avg goals against
Bahia-
Atletico Paranaense8
Clean sheets
Bahia-
Best odds for this sectionBahia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Bahia to WinBetUK guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Atletico Paranaense Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Atletico Paranaense to WinBetMGM guide price · model 27%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Season-long statistics reveal Atletico Paranaense's defensive challenges, conceding 42 goals in 37 matches, while maintaining a strong home record. Bahia's attacking numbers are robust, with 14.4 attempts and 5.7 shots on target per match, translating into 1.5 goals per game. Both teams' offensive and defensive profiles align with a match likely to feature goals from both sides, reinforcing the BTTS Yes market.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
3Atletico Paranaense4627137710
4Bahia4627121059
Atletico Paranaense and Bahia sit closely in the Serie A standings, ranked third and fourth respectively with equal points. This proximity adds competitive tension, as both teams seek to consolidate top positions. The stakes encourage attacking play and risk-taking, increasing the likelihood of goals and supporting the BTTS Yes selection as both sides aim to secure vital points.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Atletico Paranaense Over 2.5
80%Bahia Over 2.5
2.5H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.5, reflecting a moderately open scoring trend. Both teams have an 80% rate for Over 2.5 goals in recent matches, indicating a tempo and attacking style conducive to multiple goals. This trend suggests the fixture will feature offensive opportunities and goal-scoring chances, complementing the BTTS Yes market with a likelihood of goals at both ends.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Atletico Paranaense v Bahia prediction

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