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Atletico Nacional crestAtletico Nacional
v
Deportivo Cali crestDeportivo Cali

Primera A | Thu 27 Aug, 02:30

Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Cali Stats

Data last updated: Wed 26 Aug 2026, 08:12 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Atletico Nacional hosts Deportivo Cali in a Primera A clash where both teams show contrasting attacking and defensive profiles. Atletico Nacional ranks 11th with a recent points tally of 9, while Deportivo Cali sits slightly higher at 8th with 8 points. Atletico Nacional's playstyle involves sustained wing pressure and frequent wide deliveries, contributing to their higher corner averages. Deportivo Cali, though less prolific in corners, maintains a solid defensive shape with fewer goals conceded. This match promises territorial battles and set-piece opportunities, setting the stage for a corner-rich encounter under the floodlights.

BT4Y best bet

Over 9.5 Corners

  • Atletico Nacional averages 8.25 corners per game, significantly higher than Deportivo Cali's 3.33.
  • Both teams have recent form suggesting attacking intent, with Atletico Nacional's over 2.5 goals rate at 60%.
  • The model estimates a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support.
  • The fixture features players like J. Morelos who generate frequent attacking plays and fouls, increasing corner potential.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Over 9.5 Corners with a 69% probability, well above the implied market chance of 52.1%, reflecting clear value. Atletico Nacional's aggressive wing play and high corner count combine with Deportivo Cali's defensive resilience to create numerous set-piece scenarios. The statistical edge is supported by Atletico Nacional's 8.25 average corners per game and the presence of dynamic attackers like J. Rosa who win fouls and create attacking pressure. This data-driven angle aligns with the tactical expectation of sustained wide attacks and territorial control.

Model Chance69%
Strong positive
Market Implied Chance52.1%
Strong positive
Atletico Nacional Avg Corners8.25 per game
Strong positive
Deportivo Cali Avg Corners3.33 per game
Positive
Player InfluenceJ. Rosa wins 5.81 fouls/90, aiding corner creation
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect a match where Atletico Nacional's aggressive wing play forces multiple corners, supported by their strong average and attacking momentum. Deportivo Cali's defensive approach may reduce some opportunities but is unlikely to suppress the overall corner count below 10. The data and tactical context suggest Over 9.5 Corners is a well-founded selection for this fixture.

Main risk

Corner volume can be sterile if territory does not become shots, crosses or repeat box entries.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Corners market

“Atletico Nacional's high corner averages and attacking patterns combined with Deportivo Cali's defensive style create a fertile environment for numerous corners, making Over 9.5 Corners a compelling market to consider.”

Key Data Signals

Over 9.5 Corners evidence

Atletico Nacional averages 8.25 corners per game, significantly higher than Deportivo Cali's 3.33.

Both teams have recent form suggesting attacking intent, with Atletico Nacional's over 2.5 goals rate at 60%.

The model estimates a 69% chance for over 9.5 corners, indicating strong statistical support.

The fixture features players like J. Morelos who generate frequent attacking plays and fouls, increasing corner potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 9.5 Corners notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals stand at 2.8, indicating moderately open games.
  • Although this panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the moderate scoring tempo suggests balanced attacking and defensive phases, which often correlate with sustained wing play and set-piece situations, indirectly supporting a higher corner count in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Atletico Nacional1.2
Avg goals scored
Deportivo Cali1.4
Atletico Nacional1
Avg goals conceded
Deportivo Cali0.8
Atletico Nacional20%
BTTS rate
Deportivo Cali40%
Atletico Nacional60%
Over 2.5 goals
Deportivo Cali20%
Best odds for this sectionUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 56% · edge +1.9 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 29%
3.5
Check odds @ 3.5
Both teams show moderate attacking output, with Atletico Nacional's over 2.5 goals rate at 60% contrasting Deportivo Cali's 20%. BTTS rates are lower, indicating defensive solidity. This mix suggests that while goals may be limited, attacking pressure and set-piece opportunities, including corners, remain high, supporting a corner-focused market rather than goal-heavy bets.
Season team stats

Primera A

Atletico Nacional28
Played
Deportivo Cali23
Atletico Nacional1.9
Avg goals for
Deportivo Cali1.1
Atletico Nacional0.8
Avg goals against
Deportivo Cali0.8
Atletico Nacional10
Clean sheets
Deportivo Cali9
Best odds for this sectionDeportivo Cali Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Deportivo Cali to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Atletico Nacional Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Atletico Nacional to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Season-long data confirms Atletico Nacional's aggressive wing play resulting in an average of 8.25 corners per game, a key driver for the corner market. Deportivo Cali's 3.33 average corners per game are lower but consistent, suggesting the combined total can surpass 9.5 when factoring Atletico Nacional's control and match tempo.

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Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Atletico Nacional

WLWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 107W 0D 3L
23 Aug 2026A Fortaleza FC2-1
10 Aug 2026A America de Cali0-1
02 Aug 2026A Jaguares3-0
08 Jun 2026H Junior1-0
03 Jun 2026A Junior0-3

Deportivo Cali

DWLWD
Last 52W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 3D 2L
24 Aug 2026H Internacional de Bogota2-2
09 Aug 2026A Deportivo Pasto2-0
02 Aug 2026A Independiente Medellin0-1
25 Jul 2026H Jaguares2-0
03 May 2026A Deportes Tolima1-1
Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 59% vs implied 44% · edge +15 pts
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Load more odds for this section
Deportivo Cali Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Deportivo Cali to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 74%
1.17
Check odds @ 1.17
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Atletico Nacional Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Atletico Nacional to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Recent form data shows Atletico Nacional with a 60% over 2.5 goals rate and a strong corner average, reflecting attacking momentum. Deportivo Cali's lower over 2.5 goals rate but decent points tally indicates a more balanced approach. The corner stats align with Atletico Nacional's recent matches featuring high corner counts, reinforcing in the Over 9.5 Corners market.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionDeportivo Cali Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 30% · edge +15 pts
3.3
Check odds @ 3.3
Load more odds for this section
Deportivo Cali to WinBetfred guide price · model 34%
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Atletico Nacional Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 55%
1.32
Check odds @ 1.32
Atletico Nacional to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The Over 9.5 Corners market is priced attractively with around 1.92, reflecting a 52.1% implied chance. However, the model's 69% probability indicates significant value, suggesting the market underestimates the likelihood of a corner-heavy game. This price-value gap makes the selection a positive-value bet with strong .
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Atletico Nacional9.25
Avg corners for
Deportivo Cali4
Atletico Nacional13.75
Avg total corners
Deportivo Cali8.67
Atletico Nacional2.75
Avg yellow cards
Deportivo Cali3.67
Atletico Nacional19.25
Avg shots
Deportivo Cali15.33
Market aligned with main pickOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 52% · edge +15 pts
1.92
Check odds @ 1.92
Atletico Nacional's average of 8.25 corners per game is driven by sustained wing play and frequent attacking transitions. Deportivo Cali's lower corner average is offset by their fouling tendency and defensive pressure, which can lead to more set pieces. Both teams maintain moderate card counts, reflecting a competitive but not overly aggressive match environment conducive to corner accumulation.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Atletico Nacional wins
4Draws
4Deportivo Cali wins
15 Feb 2026Deportivo Cali v Atletico Nacional1-0
15 Oct 2025Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Cali2-1
21 Apr 2025Deportivo Cali v Atletico Nacional1-0
10 Oct 2024Atletico Nacional v Deportivo Cali1-1
17 Feb 2024Deportivo Cali v Atletico Nacional3-2
07 Aug 2023Deportivo Cali v Atletico Nacional1-1
Best odds for this sectionDeportivo Cali to WinBetfred guide price · Model 34% vs implied 19% · edge +15 pts
5.25
Check odds @ 5.25
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 53%
2
Check odds @ 2
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 30%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Atletico Nacional to WinBetfred guide price · model 45%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The ten previous meetings between Atletico Nacional and Deportivo Cali average 2.8 goals per game, showing moderately open contests. While goal trends are balanced, the matches often feature sustained attacks and defensive resilience, which typically generate numerous corners. The head-to-head data moderately supports expectations of a corner-rich game without guaranteeing high goal totals.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Atletico Nacional4019131520
9Deportivo Cali27197664
8Deportivo Cali742113
11Atletico Nacional632013
While Atletico Nacional sits 11th and Deportivo Cali 8th in the standings, the table positions have limited direct impact on corner counts. However, both teams' mid-table status suggests a competitive fixture where Atletico Nacional may push for territorial control, increasing corner opportunities. The standings provide background but are secondary to tactical and statistical corner indicators.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Atletico Nacional Over 2.5
20%Deportivo Cali Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals stand at 2.8, indicating moderately open games. Although this panel focuses on Over 2.5 Goals trends, the moderate scoring tempo suggests balanced attacking and defensive phases, which often correlate with sustained wing play and set-piece situations, indirectly supporting a higher corner count in this fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

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More stats pages

Chico v Fortaleza FCPrimera A · Wed 26 Aug 22:00America de Cali v JuniorPrimera A · Thu 27 Aug 00:20

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