Arzignano Valchiampo

Desenzano Calvina

Serie C - Girone A | Sun 13 Sep, 20:00

Arzignano Valchiampo v Desenzano Calvina Stats

Data last updated: Sat 12 Sep 2026, 08:11 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Arzignano Valchiampo and Desenzano Calvina meet in Serie C - Girone A with both sides showing cautious attacking output so far this season. Arzignano Valchiampo has collected 4 points with a modest goals scored rate of 0.67 per game, while Desenzano Calvina has managed 2 points and an even lower scoring average of 0.33. Defensive solidity appears to be a feature, with both teams conceding less than or around one goal per match. This fixture is likely to be a tactical battle with limited goal-scoring opportunities, reflecting the early-season form and the teams' pragmatic approaches.

BT4Y match pick

Under 2.5 Goals

Both teams average less than one goal scored per match this season.
Arzignano Valchiampo concedes on average 1 goal per game, Desenzano Calvina 0.67.
Over 2.5 goals occurred in only 33% of Arzignano Valchiampo's matches and none for Desenzano Calvina.
Both teams have a 33% rate of both teams to score, indicating defensive caution.
No previous head-to-head data, adding uncertainty but recent form suggests low scoring.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model estimates a 66% chance for under 2.5 goals, reflecting both teams' low scoring and defensive records this season. Arzignano Valchiampo's 0.67 goals per game and Desenzano Calvina's 0.33, combined with their conceding rates, support a tight game with limited goal opportunities. The at 1.6 offer a small positive , making this a sensible selection given the cautious tactical setups and early-season form. No data limitations affect in this pick.

Model chance66%

Strong positive

Goals scored per gameArzignano 0.67, Desenzano 0.33

Strong positive

Goals conceded per gameArzignano 1.0, Desenzano 0.67

Positive

Over 2.5 goals rate33% Arzignano, 0% Desenzano

Strong positive

Implied chance vs modelImplied 62.5%, model 66%

Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

This Under 2.5 Goals pick aligns with the tactical caution and low scoring trends both teams have shown so far. Arzignano Valchiampo's slightly higher scoring is balanced by Desenzano Calvina's defensive resilience, suggesting a tight match with few clear chances. The data supports a low-scoring game, making this a logical selection for bettors seeking a controlled, tactical contest.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Under 2.5 Goals rationale

“Both sides have demonstrated defensive discipline and limited attacking threat early in the season, making Under 2.5 Goals a prudent choice. The tactical setups and low scoring averages point to a match where goals will be at a premium.”

Key Data Signals

Under 2.5 Goals evidence

Both teams average less than one goal scored per match this season.

Arzignano Valchiampo concedes on average 1 goal per game, Desenzano Calvina 0.67.

What To Watch In The Data

Under 2.5 Goals notes

No head-to-head history exists between these teams, but recent form trends show low scoring rates and a low frequency of over 2.5 goals matches.
This trend over the current season sample suggests a match tempo favoring defensive control and limited goal opportunities, consistent with an under 2.5 goals outcome.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Arzignano Valchiampo0.67

Avg goals scored

Desenzano Calvina0.33

Arzignano Valchiampo1

Avg goals conceded

Desenzano Calvina0.67

Arzignano Valchiampo33%

BTTS rate

Desenzano Calvina33%

Arzignano Valchiampo33%

Over 2.5 goals

Desenzano Calvina0%

Market aligned with main pickUnder 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 67% · edge -0.7 pts

1.5

Check odds @ 1.5

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BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 60%

1.67

Check odds @ 1.67

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 22%

4.5

Check odds @ 4.5

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 52%

1.44

Check odds @ 1.44

Both teams have low goals scored and conceded averages, with Arzignano Valchiampo scoring 0.67 and conceding 1.0 per game, and Desenzano Calvina scoring 0.33 and conceding 0.67. Both have a 33% rate for both teams to score, suggesting cautious attacking and defensive setups that favor fewer goals and limited BTTS occurrences.

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Season team stats

Serie C - Girone A

Arzignano Valchiampo3

Played

Desenzano Calvina3

Arzignano Valchiampo0.7

Avg goals for

Desenzano Calvina0.3

Arzignano Valchiampo1

Avg goals against

Desenzano Calvina0.7

Arzignano Valchiampo2

Clean sheets

Desenzano Calvina1

Best odds for this sectionArzignano Valchiampo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 47% · edge +5.8 pts

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

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Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Desenzano Calvina to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Season-long statistics reveal both teams have struggled to produce high-scoring games, with Arzignano Valchiampo averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, and Desenzano Calvina averaging 0.33 scored and 0.67 conceded. These figures underline a defensive orientation and limited attacking output, reinforcing the under 2.5 goals expectation.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Arzignano Valchiampo

LWD

Last 51W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 1D 1L

06 Sep 2026A Ospitaletto1-3

30 Aug 2026H PRO Vercelli1-0

22 Aug 2026A Lecco0-0

Desenzano Calvina

LDD

Last 50W 2D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 2D 1L

06 Sep 2026A Union Brescia0-1

31 Aug 2026H Trento0-0

23 Aug 2026A PRO Vercelli1-1

Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 79% vs implied 78% · edge +1.3 pts

1.28

Check odds @ 1.28

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Arzignano Valchiampo to WinBetMGM guide price · model 52%

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 59%

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

Desenzano Calvina to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%

2.88

Check odds @ 2.88

Recent form data shows Arzignano Valchiampo with 4 points and a 33% over 2.5 goals rate, while Desenzano Calvina has 2 points and no over 2.5 goals matches. Both teams' low scoring and conceding rates reflect cautious approaches and defensive focus, supporting the likelihood of a low-scoring game under 2.5 goals.

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionArzignano Valchiampo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 47% · edge +5.8 pts

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

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Arzignano Valchiampo Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 62%

1.65

Check odds @ 1.65

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price

1.57

Check odds @ 1.57

BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Desenzano Calvina to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Desenzano Calvina Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%

2.2

Check odds @ 2.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

The Under 2.5 Goals market is priced at 1.6 with an implied chance of 62.5%, slightly below the model's 66% probability, indicating a small positive . This pricing reflects the market's recognition of the teams' low scoring rates and defensive solidity, making the bet a reasonable option without strong price sensitivity.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

0Arzignano Valchiampo wins

0Draws

0Desenzano Calvina wins

Best odds for this sectionArzignano Valchiampo to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 52% vs implied 47% · edge +5.8 pts

2.15

Check odds @ 2.15

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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 44%

2.1

Check odds @ 2.1

Desenzano Calvina to WinBetfred guide price · model 32%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 34%

2.5

Check odds @ 2.5

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 27%

2.88

Check odds @ 2.88

There are no previous meetings between Arzignano Valchiampo and Desenzano Calvina, so head-to-head data cannot inform this bet. The focus must remain on current season form and tactical approaches, which both indicate a low-scoring match with defensive caution.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
13	Arzignano Valchiampo	4	3	1	1	1	-1
15	Desenzano Calvina	2	3	0	2	1	-1

Arzignano Valchiampo sits 13th and Desenzano Calvina 15th in Serie C - Girone A, reflecting modest starts with 4 and 2 points respectively. The mid-lower table positions and early season stage suggest both teams prioritize defensive stability over attacking risk, which aligns with a low-scoring match scenario.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

33%Arzignano Valchiampo Over 2.5

0%Desenzano Calvina Over 2.5

-H2H avg goals

No head-to-head history exists between these teams, but recent form trends show low scoring rates and a low frequency of over 2.5 goals matches. This trend over the current season sample suggests a match tempo favoring defensive control and limited goal opportunities, consistent with an under 2.5 goals outcome.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Arzignano Valchiampo v Desenzano Calvina Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

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Arzignano Valchiampo

Desenzano Calvina

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Arzignano Valchiampo v Desenzano Calvina Stats

Match Report

Under 2.5 Goals

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Arzignano Valchiampo

Desenzano Calvina

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