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Altrincham crestAltrincham
v
Hartlepool crestHartlepool

National League | Wed 16 Sep, 19:45

Altrincham v Hartlepool Stats

Data last updated: Tue 15 Sep 2026, 07:54 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Altrincham hosts Hartlepool in a National League clash where both teams sit mid-table with identical points, but Altrincham's recent form shows greater attacking promise and resilience. Altrincham has accumulated 9 points with a more potent offense, averaging 1.4 goals per game, compared to Hartlepool's 0.4. The home side's tactical approach emphasizes pressing and creating chances, while Hartlepool has struggled to convert opportunities. This match presents a chance for Altrincham to capitalize on home advantage and recent momentum to secure a vital win in a tightly contested league.

BT4Y best bet

Altrincham to Win

  • Altrincham holds a strong 72.7% to win, indicating clear statistical superiority.
  • Recent form shows Altrincham scoring 1.4 goals per game versus Hartlepool's 0.4, highlighting attacking edge.
  • Altrincham's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting open play and scoring chances.
  • Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.63, supporting potential for a competitive match.
  • Both teams are close in league standings, but Altrincham's home form and goal stats favor a win.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Altrincham to win with a 72.7% chance, driven by their superior recent scoring output and home advantage. Altrincham's ability to create and convert chances contrasts with Hartlepool's lower offensive productivity. The high Over 2.5 Goals rate in Altrincham's games indicates an attacking tempo that could overwhelm Hartlepool's defense. This combination of form, attacking metrics, and home conditions creates a strong football read for backing Altrincham's victory. No price warnings apply, making this a solid value bet based on current data.

Model Win Probability72.7%
Strong positive
Recent Goals Scored (Altrincham)1.4 per game
Positive
Recent Goals Scored (Hartlepool)0.4 per game
Negative
Over 2.5 Goals Rate (Altrincham)80%
Positive
League Position ProximityMid-table, close points
Neutral

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Altrincham's recent attacking form and home advantage make them the clear favorite to secure victory against Hartlepool. Their ability to generate chances and convert them contrasts with Hartlepool's struggles upfront, suggesting a tactical edge and momentum that should translate into a win.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Match outcome

“Altrincham's offensive consistency and home presence set the stage for a strong performance, while Hartlepool's limited goal threat reduces their chances of an upset in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Altrincham to Win evidence

Altrincham holds a strong 72.7% to win, indicating clear statistical superiority.

Recent form shows Altrincham scoring 1.4 goals per game versus Hartlepool's 0.4, highlighting attacking edge.

Altrincham's matches have an 80% Over 2.5 Goals rate, suggesting open play and scoring chances.

Head-to-head average goals stand at 2.63, supporting potential for a competitive match.

What To Watch In The Data

Altrincham to Win notes

  • Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.63, suggesting a moderately open match environment.
  • Altrincham's recent matches have a high Over 2.5 Goals rate, reinforcing the likelihood of an attacking contest with multiple scoring chances.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Altrincham1.4
Avg goals scored
Hartlepool0.4
Altrincham1.8
Avg goals conceded
Hartlepool1.2
Altrincham80%
BTTS rate
Hartlepool20%
Altrincham80%
Over 2.5 goals
Hartlepool20%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 67% vs implied 60% · edge +6.8 pts
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 54%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 68%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 32%
3
Check odds @ 3
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 37%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Altrincham's matches have featured an 80% rate of Over 2.5 Goals and BTTS occurrences, indicating open, attacking games with both teams finding the net frequently. Hartlepool's lower scoring rate suggests they may concede more, supporting expectations for goals and both teams scoring in this fixture.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAltrincham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Altrincham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The current for Altrincham to win reflect a significant value opportunity, with the model assigning a 72.7% chance compared to an implied market chance of 45.5%. This discrepancy highlights the market underestimating Altrincham's home form and attacking potential, making the bet price-sensitive and attractive for standard stakes.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Altrincham

LWWWL
Last 53W 0D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 4L
12 Sep 2026A Woking1-5
04 Sep 2026H Eastleigh2-1
31 Aug 2026A Forest Green2-1
28 Aug 2026H FC Halifax Town2-1
22 Aug 2026A Boston United0-1

Hartlepool

LWLLL
Last 51W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 4L
11 Sep 2026A Kidderminster Harriers0-2
05 Sep 2026H Woking1-0
01 Sep 2026A FC Halifax Town0-1
28 Aug 2026H Eastleigh0-1
22 Aug 2026A Sutton Utd1-2
Market aligned with main pickAltrincham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Altrincham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Altrincham's recent form is stronger, with 9 points and a higher goals-per-game average compared to Hartlepool's 3 points and lower scoring output. This momentum suggests Altrincham is better positioned to control the match tempo and capitalize on scoring opportunities at home.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

1Altrincham wins
4Draws
3Hartlepool wins
17 Jan 2026Hartlepool v Altrincham1-0
19 Aug 2025Altrincham v Hartlepool0-2
18 Feb 2025Hartlepool v Altrincham1-2
23 Oct 2024Altrincham v Hartlepool1-1
20 Feb 2024Hartlepool v Altrincham3-2
19 Sep 2023Altrincham v Hartlepool2-2
Market aligned with main pickAltrincham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 67%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 50%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head record between Altrincham and Hartlepool over eight matches shows an average of 2.63 goals per game, indicating competitive encounters with a reasonable goal flow. While the sample is moderate, it supports expectations of a lively match rather than a defensive stalemate.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

National League

Altrincham7
Played
Hartlepool7
Altrincham1.1
Avg goals for
Hartlepool0.7
Altrincham1.9
Avg goals against
Hartlepool0.9
Altrincham0
Clean sheets
Hartlepool3
Market aligned with main pickAltrincham to WinBetUK guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Load more odds for this section
Altrincham Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 73%
1.72
Check odds @ 1.72
Season-long statistics show Altrincham with a more potent attack but a slightly leaky defense, averaging 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded per game. Hartlepool's lower scoring and better defensive numbers indicate a more cautious approach, but their offensive limitations may hinder their ability to challenge Altrincham effectively.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
15Hartlepool97304-1
16Altrincham97304-5
Both teams occupy mid-table positions with equal points, reflecting a balanced competition. However, Altrincham's home advantage and recent scoring trends provide them with a slight edge in this fixture, as league position alone does not capture form nuances.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Altrincham Over 2.5
20%Hartlepool Over 2.5
2.63H2H avg goals
Over the last eight head-to-head meetings, the average goals per game stand at 2.63, suggesting a moderately open match environment. Altrincham's recent matches have a high Over 2.5 Goals rate, reinforcing the likelihood of an attacking contest with multiple scoring chances.

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