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Alianza Valledupar crestAlianza Valledupar
v
Santa Fe crestSanta Fe

Primera A | Sat 19 Sep, 22:05

Alianza Valledupar v Santa Fe Stats

Data last updated: Sun 20 Sep 2026, 21:08 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Primera A fixture features Santa Fe visiting Alianza Valledupar, with Santa Fe currently seventh in the standings and showing stronger recent form and offensive output. Santa Fe's tactical approach emphasizes quick transitions and efficient finishing, led by key attackers who have been consistent goal threats. Alianza Valledupar, sitting lower in the table, have struggled defensively and face a tough challenge containing Santa Fe's dynamic frontline. The match carries importance for Santa Fe to maintain momentum and push higher in the table, while Valledupar seek to halt their defensive woes at home.

BT4Y best bet

Santa Fe to Win

  • Santa Fe ranks 7th with 13 points, Alianza Valledupar 15th with 8 points
  • Santa Fe averages 1.4 goals per game versus Valledupar's 0.8
  • Santa Fe's attack generates 14.25 shots per game, double Valledupar's 8.8
  • Valledupar concedes 2 goals per game, Santa Fe concedes only 1
  • Rodallega has 13 goals and 1.52 shots on target per 90 minutes

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Santa Fe's 63.2% to win reflects their superior offensive and defensive metrics compared to Alianza Valledupar. Their higher shot volume and goal conversion, combined with Valledupar's defensive vulnerabilities, underpin this . The model sees clear value at the current of 2.6, given Santa Fe's consistent form and key attacking players like H. Rodallega driving goal threat. No data limitations affect this assessment, supporting a standard stake recommendation.

Model Win Probability63.2%
Strong positive
Santa Fe Goals For per Game1.4
Positive
Alianza Valledupar Goals Against per Game2.0
Negative
Shot Volume Advantage14.25 vs 8.8
Strong positive
Key Player Impact (H. Rodallega)13 goals, 1.52 SOT/90
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Santa Fe's tactical edge and superior recent form make them the likely winners in this matchup. Their ability to generate more shots and goals, led by prolific forwards, contrasts with Alianza Valledupar's defensive struggles, suggesting Santa Fe can secure victory.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and form advantage for Santa Fe

“Santa Fe's attacking efficiency and defensive solidity provide a clear tactical advantage over Alianza Valledupar, whose defensive lapses have been costly this season. This match should favor Santa Fe's well-organized approach and key goal threats.”

Key Data Signals

Santa Fe to Win evidence

Santa Fe ranks 7th with 13 points, Alianza Valledupar 15th with 8 points

Santa Fe averages 1.4 goals per game versus Valledupar's 0.8

Santa Fe's attack generates 14.25 shots per game, double Valledupar's 8.8

Valledupar concedes 2 goals per game, Santa Fe concedes only 1

What To Watch In The Data

Santa Fe to Win notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals per game, indicating a moderately open game with scoring opportunities for both sides.
  • Santa Fe's lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Valledupar's (60%) suggests Santa Fe's matches may be more controlled, but the combined goal average supports a trend toward multiple goals in this encounter.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Alianza Valledupar3.2
Avg corners for
Santa Fe6
Alianza Valledupar9
Avg total corners
Santa Fe10.8
Alianza Valledupar3.2
Avg yellow cards
Santa Fe1.6
Alianza Valledupar8.8
Avg shots
Santa Fe14.6
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
Santa Fe's higher average corners (6.5) and shots (14.25) indicate sustained attacking pressure and territorial control. Alianza Valledupar's higher yellow card average (3.2) compared to Santa Fe (1.75) suggests a more aggressive or pressured defensive approach, increasing the chance of set-piece opportunities and fouls in dangerous areas.

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Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alianza Valledupar0.8
Avg goals scored
Santa Fe1.4
Alianza Valledupar2
Avg goals conceded
Santa Fe1
Alianza Valledupar40%
BTTS rate
Santa Fe60%
Alianza Valledupar60%
Over 2.5 goals
Santa Fe40%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 63% vs implied 55% · edge +8.7 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 72%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 36%
4
Check odds @ 4
Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 41%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Santa Fe averages 1.4 goals per game with a 60% BTTS rate, while Alianza Valledupar scores less but concedes more, leading to a combined average of 2.9 goals in their last 10 meetings. This suggests a moderate likelihood of goals with both teams potentially scoring, driven by Santa Fe's offensive pressure and Valledupar's defensive gaps.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickSanta Fe to WinBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Santa Fe Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 65%
1.85
Check odds @ 1.85
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The for Santa Fe to win at 2.6 offer good value given the model's 63.2% win probability. This pricing reflects an underestimation of Santa Fe's attacking strengths and defensive stability compared to Alianza Valledupar's vulnerabilities, making this a positive value bet without price sensitivity concerns.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alianza Valledupar

WWLLL
Last 52W 0D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 3D 5L
16 Sep 2026A Chico2-1
13 Sep 2026H Junior1-0
03 Sep 2026A America de Cali0-3
30 Aug 2026H Atletico Nacional1-5
26 Aug 2026A Cucuta0-1

Santa Fe

WDWDD
Last 52W 3D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 6D 1L
12 Sep 2026H Deportes Tolima1-0
06 Sep 2026H Fortaleza FC2-2
03 Sep 2026H Millonarios3-2
30 Aug 2026A Junior1-1
23 Aug 2026H America de Cali0-0
Market aligned with main pickSanta Fe to WinBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 84%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Santa Fe Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Santa Fe's recent form shows 9 points gained with an average of 1.4 goals scored and 1 conceded per game, reflecting balanced and effective performances. Alianza Valledupar has earned 6 points but struggles defensively, conceding 2 goals per game, which undermines their ability to secure positive results against stronger opponents like Santa Fe.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4Alianza Valledupar wins
2Draws
4Santa Fe wins
15 Mar 2026Santa Fe v Alianza Valledupar1-1
14 Nov 2025Santa Fe v Alianza Valledupar1-0
10 Sep 2025Santa Fe v Alianza Valledupar4-1
28 Aug 2025Alianza Valledupar v Santa Fe1-1
25 May 2025Alianza Valledupar v Santa Fe6-1
27 Sep 2024Santa Fe v Alianza Valledupar2-0
Market aligned with main pickSanta Fe to WinBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
Load more odds for this section
BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 63%
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
The 10 previous meetings between these teams have produced an average of 2.9 goals per game, reflecting a relatively open and competitive fixture history. While this supports the potential for goals, the sample does not strongly favor either side, placing more emphasis on current form and tactical factors for this match.
Season team stats

Primera A

Alianza Valledupar29
Played
Santa Fe32
Alianza Valledupar0.8
Avg goals for
Santa Fe1.6
Alianza Valledupar1.6
Avg goals against
Santa Fe1.1
Alianza Valledupar6
Clean sheets
Santa Fe7
Market aligned with main pickSanta Fe to WinBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 39% · edge +15 pts
2.6
Check odds @ 2.6
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Santa Fe Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 70%
1.82
Check odds @ 1.82
Over the season, Santa Fe demonstrates a stronger attack and more resilient defense compared to Alianza Valledupar, who have a lower goal-scoring rate and higher goals conceded. This statistical profile supports Santa Fe's likelihood to control the match tempo and convert chances into goals, reinforcing the win prediction.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
7Santa Fe29197847
17Alianza Valledupar1719388-14
4Santa Fe1694416
16Alianza Valledupar810226-11
Santa Fe's 7th place standing with 13 points places them in a more competitive position than Alianza Valledupar, who sit 15th with 8 points. While the league table alone is not decisive, the points gap and relative form pressure favor Santa Fe to maintain their upward trajectory and secure victory in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

60%Alianza Valledupar Over 2.5
40%Santa Fe Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals per game, indicating a moderately open game with scoring opportunities for both sides. Santa Fe's lower over 2.5 goals rate (40%) compared to Valledupar's (60%) suggests Santa Fe's matches may be more controlled, but the combined goal average supports a trend toward multiple goals in this encounter.

Related football research

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Prediction context

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