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Alaves crestAlaves
v
Valencia crestValencia

La Liga | Tue 15 Sep, 19:00

Alaves v Valencia Stats

Data last updated: Wed 07 Oct 2026, 19:25 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alaves face Valencia in La Liga on Tue 15 Sep, 19:00. Alavés have won all three home league matches this season, scoring nine goals and generating 5.1 shots on target per game despite limited possession. The hosts’ unbeaten home record against Valencia adds further .

BT4Y best bet

Alaves to Win

  • At 9/10, Alaves to Win implies roughly 53%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 68%.
  • Alavés vs Valencia: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching for Answers.
  • Alaves have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Valencia.
  • Alaves have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Alaves to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Alaves sit 6 in the table, while Valencia sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 68% for Alaves to Win sits against roughly 53% implied by the current price. Alaves have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Valencia. Alavés vs Valencia: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching for Answers.

Model chance vs price68% model chance against roughly 53% implied
Strong positive
Alaves have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points.Visible data support
Positive
Alaves have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive
Alavés vs Valencia: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Alaves Win is the preferred angle because alavés vs Valencia: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching for Answers. Alaves have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Valencia. The defeat at Sevilla sharpened that concern.

Main risk

The defeat at Sevilla sharpened that concern.

Key Data Signals

Alaves to Win evidence

Alavés vs Valencia: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching for Answers.

Alaves have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 1 for Valencia.

Alaves have the cleaner defensive sample at 1 conceded per match, which helps the Alaves Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Alaves sit 6 in the table, while Valencia sit 19, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Alaves to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Alaves2.2
    Avg goals scored
    Valencia0.2
    Alaves1
    Avg goals conceded
    Valencia2
    Alaves60%
    BTTS rate
    Valencia20%
    Alaves60%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Valencia40%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBet365 guide price · Model 57% vs implied 50% · edge +6.7 pts
    2
    Check odds @ 2
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    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 67%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 31%
    4
    Check odds @ 4
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 55%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 47%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 60% for Alaves and 20% for Valencia, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.

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    Useful next reads

    La Liga hubfull betting preview for Alaves v Valenciacorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting angleslatest football statsmain football hubtoday's predictionsbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickAlaves to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Alaves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
    2
    Check odds @ 2
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 49%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 62%
    1.53
    Check odds @ 1.53
    Alaves to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Alaves

    LWWDW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 1D 1L
    12 Sep 2026A Racing Santander1-2
    06 Sep 2026H Osasuna5-2
    28 Aug 2026H Villarreal1-0
    20 Aug 2026A Rayo Vallecano1-1
    15 Aug 2026H Getafe3-0

    Valencia

    LLLLD
    Last 50W 1D 4L
    Last 5 record
    Last 100W 1D 4L
    11 Sep 2026A Sevilla0-1
    06 Sep 2026H Barcelona0-5
    30 Aug 2026A Deportivo La Coruna1-3
    25 Aug 2026H Real Betis0-1
    22 Aug 2026H Celta Vigo0-0
    Market aligned with main pickAlaves to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 72% vs implied 57% · edge +15 pts
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Load more odds for this section
    Alaves Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 63%
    2.08
    Check odds @ 2.08
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.17
    Check odds @ 1.17
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    60%Alaves Over 2.5
    40%Valencia Over 2.5
    2.1H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Alaves sit at 60% and Valencia sit at 40% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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