bet365
BetMGM
Betfred
BetVictor
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
EasyBet
Alavés vs Valencia: Home Strength Meets a Side Searching for Answers. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Alavés have won all three home league matches this season, scoring nine goals and generating 5.1 shots on target per game despite limited possession. Valencia have scored only once in five matches and struggle to convert possession into shots on target, making Alavés the stronger side to secure victory here. The hosts’ unbeaten home record against Valencia adds further confidence.
Alavés have scored nine goals in three home games, showing strong attacking threat, while Valencia have scored only once in five matches and have kept no clean sheets in recent away games. Alavés' recent clean sheets against Valencia support a 2-0 correct score prediction.
Unlock the BT4Y Betting Brain pick for Alaves v Valencia
Get one extra match-specific tip generated before kick-off by our proprietary BT4Y Betting Brain Engine and proprietary betting algorithm.
Register FREE to reveal this exclusive extra tip now.No payment required · Unlock instantly · Return straight to this article.
REGISTER FREE & UNLOCK TIP →Already registered? Log in18+ · Historical results only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Betting involves risk.Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Alaves v Valencia.
Alavés welcome Valencia to Mendizorroza on Tuesday with the early-season gap between the clubs already substantial.
Alaves vs Valencia — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Alaves look stronger on recent form, while Valencia remain vulnerable after weaker results.
Alaves carry the sharper attack, while Valencia must improve to keep pace.
Alaves carry the stronger defensive profile, while Valencia remain vulnerable in the likely scoreline.
Alaves hold the stronger overall profile, leaving Valencia needing a sharper performance.
Three Punchy Stats
- Alavés have won all three of their La Liga home matches this season, scoring nine goals in the process. Their strongest early-season work has consistently come at Mendizorroza.
- Valencia have scored only once in five league games. That lack of cutting edge becomes more concerning against opponents who have kept clean sheets in the last three home meetings between these sides.
- Alavés average 5.1 shots on target from 12.4 attempts across their last 10 league matches, compared with Valencia’s 2.9 from 10.4. The gap is less about how often the teams shoot than how frequently those attempts genuinely trouble the goalkeeper.
Scoring in Last 5 Matches
Recent attacking records for Alaves and Valencia are shown below.
Clean Sheets in Last 5 Matches
Recent defensive records for Alaves and Valencia are shown below.
The hosts have taken 10 points from five La Liga matches and won all three of their home games, while Valencia sit bottom with a single point and just one goal scored.
The most revealing contrast is not simply third against 20th. Alavés have been turning home pressure into results, whereas Valencia are struggling to turn possession and attacking volume into meaningful threat. For an interim Valencia side facing injuries and a change of leadership, that is an awkward combination.
Mendizorroza Has Become Alavés’ Strongest Argument
All three of Alavés’ league victories this season have come at home, including a 3-0 win over Getafe, a 1-0 success against Villarreal and a 5-2 victory over Osasuna. That gives them nine goals across those three matches while maintaining a 100% home record.
There is useful longer-term support behind that start. Alavés have won four of their last five home league games and three consecutively, while Valencia have lost 11 of their previous 20 away league fixtures.
Recent meetings at Mendizorroza strengthen the pattern. Alavés are unbeaten in their last seven home matches against Valencia, winning four, and have kept clean sheets in the previous three meetings there.
The wider 10-game numbers are less dominant than those home results might suggest. Alavés have averaged only 40.5% possession and 305.1 passes, yet they have still produced 12.4 attempts and 5.1 shots on target per match. They do not need large amounts of the ball to generate a respectable attacking return.
Valencia’s Possession Is Producing Too Little
Valencia’s attacking problem is difficult to ignore. They have scored once in five league games and lost four in succession after opening with a goalless draw against Celta Vigo.
Their last 10 league matches offer further context: 10.4 attempts per game have produced only 2.9 shots on target and an average of one goal. That conversion from general attacking activity into genuine threat looks particularly weak beside Alavés’ 5.1 shots on target from 12.4 attempts.
The defeat at Sevilla sharpened that concern. Valencia had 54% possession but failed to register a shot on target. Having more of the ball therefore offers little reassurance unless Oscar Sanchez can coax greater penetration from a team now operating under an interim coach.
Defensively, the picture is hardly kinder. Valencia have conceded 1.7 goals per game across their last 10 league outings while allowing 13.3 attempts and 4.4 shots on target. Alavés are not overwhelming opponents through possession, but Valencia appear capable of giving them enough opportunities to make that irrelevant.
Boye Gives the Hosts a Clearer Cutting Edge
Lucas Boye’s four goals make him Alavés’ leading scorer across the recent league sample, while Antonio Martinez has three and Angel Perez has supplied four assists. Those contributions help explain why Alavés’ attacking efficiency has been stronger than their possession figures imply.
Valencia have individual output too, with Javier Guerra on three goals and Umar Sadiq and Guido Rodriguez on two, but Sadiq is injured and Rodriguez faces a fitness question before Tuesday. Luis Rioja is available again, although Valencia also have several other absentees and Cesar Tarrega requires assessment after a hamstring problem.
Alavés have their own concerns. Facundo Garces and Mikel Rodriguez remain out with anterior cruciate ligament injuries, while Aitor Manas is unavailable under concussion protocols.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result Market
Selection: Alaves to Win. Choose the home win, draw or away win after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are excluded from settlement.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Alaves vs Valencia 2-0. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Alaves to Win @ 9/10
Alavés enter this fixture with three consecutive home victories at Mendizorroza, scoring nine goals across successes against Getafe, Villarreal, and Osasuna to collect 10 points from their opening five league matches. That strong home platform provides the central logic for backing the host victory at 9/10. While Eduardo Coudet’s side average only 40.5% possession over their last 10 league outings, they remain direct and purposeful, generating 12.4 attempts and 5.1 shots on target per match.
Valencia arrive at Mendizorroza bottom of La Liga with a single point and four consecutive defeats. Their possession average of 54% in a recent defeat to Sevilla produced zero shots on target, exposing an inability to convert territory into danger. Across their past 10 league fixtures, Valencia average just 2.9 shots on target from 10.4 total attempts, while conceding 1.7 goals per match. Facing an Alavés attack led by Lucas Boyé, who has four goals, and Antonio Martínez with three, Valencia’s defensive record of losing 11 of their last 20 away league matches leaves them vulnerable to high-efficiency pressure.
Alavés must manage missing personnel, as Facundo Garcés and Mikel Rodríguez are out with knee injuries, alongside Aitor Mañas. However, Valencia face their own absences, with striker Umar Sadiq injured and interim coach Óscar Sánchez overseeing a squad that has scored just once in five matches. Given Alavés’ unbeaten run in seven home games against Valencia, the hosts hold the clearer path to securing three points.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Alavés have won all three La Liga home matches this season, scoring nine goals at Mendizorroza.
- Valencia have scored only one goal in five league matches and lost 11 of their last 20 away league fixtures.
- Alavés average 5.1 shots on target per match across their last 10 league games despite averaging 40.5% possession.
Risk Factor: If Valencia secure a draw or away win, or if Alavés fail to lead at full-time, this selection loses.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Averaging 5.1 shots on target per game and scoring nine goals across three home victories.
Averaging 2.9 shots on target per match with only one goal scored in five league fixtures.
⚔️ Pick 2: Alaves vs Valencia 2-0 @ 7/1
Supporting a 2-0 home victory requires distinct evidence for both sides of the scoreline. Alavés have shown consistent goalscoring capability at Mendizorroza, scoring nine times across their three home fixtures this season, including three against Getafe and five against Osasuna. Their average of 5.1 shots on target per match demonstrates how effectively they test opposing goalkeepers despite having under 41% of the ball. Facing a Valencia side that concedes 1.7 goals per game and allows 13.3 total attempts per match, Alavés possess sufficient threat to score twice.
The clean-sheet component is supported by Valencia’s severe shortage of goalscoring production. Valencia have scored only once across five La Liga fixtures this term and failed to record a single shot on target in their recent outing against Sevilla. Furthermore, Alavés have kept clean sheets in each of their last three home meetings against Valencia at Mendizorroza. With key forward Umar Sadiq unavailable through injury and Guido Rodríguez undergoing a late fitness test, Valencia’s current attack lacks the precision required to breach a home defence that shut out Villarreal earlier this season.
Historical precedent offers secondary context, as Alavés are unbeaten in seven home meetings with Valencia, winning four. However, correct-score selections remain fragile, as a single late defensive slip or unexpected goal would defeat the bet. Nevertheless, combining Alavés’ home scoring output with Valencia’s scoring troubles leaves 2-0 as a defensible selection at 7/1.
Risk Factor: This selection fails if Valencia score, if Alavés score fewer or more than two goals, or if the match ends in a draw or away win.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does backing Alavés to Win in the Match Result market mean?
Alavés must lead after 90 minutes plus stoppage time for the bet to win.
How does a Correct Score 2-0 bet settle?
The match must finish exactly 2-0 to Alavés at the end of normal time.
Why is Alavés' home form significant for this matchup?
Alavés have won all three of their home league games this season, scoring nine goals.
What attacking statistics support Alavés scoring two goals?
Alavés average 5.1 shots on target per match and scored nine goals across three home games.
Why is Valencia struggling to generate goalscoring chances?
Valencia average only 2.9 shots on target per game and have scored once in five league matches.
Does possession share guarantee control in this game?
No, possession share does not guarantee chances or control in this match.
