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Al-Nassr crestAl-Nassr
v
Al Taawon crestAl Taawon

Pro League | Fri 28 Aug, 19:00

Al-Nassr v Al Taawon Stats

Data last updated: Thu 27 Aug 2026, 08:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al-Nassr leads the Pro League with a perfect start, boasting three wins and a strong goal difference, while Al Taawon struggles near the bottom with just two points from four matches. Al-Nassr's attacking prowess is evident, but Al Taawon’s defensive resilience and tactical discipline could frustrate the hosts. This clash tests Al Taawon’s ability to contain a dominant side and seek points, with the away team likely to focus on structured defense and counter-attacks, making the match outcome uncertain despite the league positions.

BT4Y best bet

Al Taawon Draw No Bet

  • Al Taawon offers strong value in Draw No Bet at 4.5 with a 42% versus 22% implied chance.
  • Al-Nassr averages over 3 goals per game but Al Taawon concedes only 1 goal per match, indicating defensive solidity.
  • Both teams have a low BTTS rate of 33%, suggesting a tight game with limited scoring from Al Taawon.
  • Al Taawon ranks 12th with 2 points, while Al-Nassr tops the table with 9 points, highlighting the gap but also the underdog potential.
  • Al Taawon’s recent form and defensive stats support a cautious approach, making Draw No Bet a prudent selection.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model identifies significant value in Al Taawon Draw No Bet at 4.5 , reflecting a 42% chance of avoiding defeat against the league leaders. Despite Al-Nassr’s strong attack, Al Taawon’s defensive discipline and ability to limit goals conceded underpin this . The low BTTS rates for both teams and Al Taawon’s capacity to frustrate opponents suggest the away side can at least secure a draw, making this bet a solid option with a positive and standard staking guidance.

Model Chance42%
Strong positive
Implied Chance22.2%
Strong positive
Value Edge19.8%
Strong positive
Recent Defensive FormAl Taawon concedes 1 goal per game
Positive
BTTS Rate33% both teams
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Al Taawon’s defensive resilience and tactical discipline make the Draw No Bet selection a smart choice against the league leaders. While Al-Nassr’s firepower is impressive, the away team’s ability to limit goals and frustrate opponents offers a solid foundation for avoiding defeat. This bet balances the risk of Al-Nassr’s control with Al Taawon’s underdog potential and defensive strengths.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Defensive resilience and value in Draw No Bet

“Al Taawon’s disciplined defensive setup and recent form suggest they can withstand Al-Nassr’s attacking threats, making the Draw No Bet market a compelling value play in this matchup.”

Key Data Signals

Al Taawon Draw No Bet evidence

Al Taawon offers strong value in Draw No Bet at 4.5 with a 42% versus 22% implied chance.

Al-Nassr averages over 3 goals per game but Al Taawon concedes only 1 goal per match, indicating defensive solidity.

Both teams have a low BTTS rate of 33%, suggesting a tight game with limited scoring from Al Taawon.

Al Taawon ranks 12th with 2 points, while Al-Nassr tops the table with 9 points, highlighting the gap but also the underdog potential.

What To Watch In The Data

Al Taawon Draw No Bet notes

  • Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 2.4, suggesting moderately open games.
  • However, recent trends show Al Taawon’s matches have fewer goals and lower BTTS rates, indicating a slower tempo and defensive focus.
  • This trend supports a controlled game with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the cautious betting angle on Draw No Bet.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Al-Nassr7.5
Avg corners for
Al Taawon5
Al-Nassr11
Avg total corners
Al Taawon8.5
Al-Nassr0.5
Avg yellow cards
Al Taawon0.5
Al-Nassr17.5
Avg shots
Al Taawon12.5
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 66% vs implied 58% · edge +7.8 pts
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Both teams average around 7 corners per game, reflecting balanced territorial play. Al-Nassr’s higher shot volume and shots on target contrast with Al Taawon’s fewer but more disciplined attempts. Yellow card averages are low and equal, indicating a controlled match with limited disciplinary disruptions, likely reflecting tactical caution from Al Taawon.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Nassr3.33
Avg goals scored
Al Taawon0.67
Al-Nassr0.67
Avg goals conceded
Al Taawon1
Al-Nassr33%
BTTS rate
Al Taawon33%
Al-Nassr100%
Over 2.5 goals
Al Taawon33%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS NoBetMGM guide price · Model 60% vs implied 52% · edge +7.4 pts
1.91
Check odds @ 1.91
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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 42%
2.88
Check odds @ 2.88
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 80%
1.11
Check odds @ 1.11
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
Over 3.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 44%
2
Check odds @ 2
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Both teams have a low BTTS rate of 33%, indicating matches tend to be tight with limited scoring from Al Taawon. Al-Nassr’s high scoring is tempered by Al Taawon’s solid defense, suggesting a controlled goals environment where both teams scoring is less likely, supporting a cautious game with few goal exchanges.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAl Taawon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Al Taawon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The Al Taawon Draw No Bet market is priced attractively at 4.5, reflecting a significant as the model estimates a 42% chance of avoiding defeat compared to the 22% implied by . This discrepancy highlights the market’s underestimation of Al Taawon’s defensive capabilities and potential to frustrate Al-Nassr, making this a price-sensitive but positive value selection.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Nassr

WWW
Last 53W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 0D 0L
25 Aug 2026A Al-Ettifaq3-2
21 Aug 2026A Al Riyadh4-0
15 Aug 2026H Al-Fateh3-0

Al Taawon

DLD
Last 50W 2D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 1L
25 Aug 2026H Al-Fayha0-0
22 Aug 2026A Al Kholood2-3
15 Aug 2026H Al Khaleej Saihat0-0
Market aligned with main pickAl Taawon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 45%
3.25
Check odds @ 3.25
Al Taawon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
Al-Nassr’s perfect start with 9 points and over 3 goals per game contrasts with Al Taawon’s 2 points and lower scoring rate. However, Al Taawon’s ability to concede only 1 goal per match and maintain a low BTTS rate shows defensive resilience. This form data supports the Draw No Bet selection as Al Taawon can likely avoid defeat despite recent struggles.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

5Al-Nassr wins
2Draws
3Al Taawon wins
26 Jan 2026Al-Nassr v Al Taawon1-0
29 Aug 2025Al Taawon v Al-Nassr0-5
16 May 2025Al-Nassr v Al Taawon1-1
17 Jan 2025Al Taawon v Al-Nassr1-1
29 Oct 2024Al-Nassr v Al Taawon0-1
14 Aug 2024Al Taawon v Al-Nassr0-2
Market aligned with main pickAl Taawon to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 23% vs implied 13% · edge +10.5 pts
8
Check odds @ 8
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 62%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 44%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.4 goals per game, indicating moderately competitive encounters. While Al-Nassr has historically been stronger, Al Taawon’s defensive improvements and tactical discipline in recent fixtures weaken the direct predictive power of H2H, suggesting current form and defensive stats are more relevant for this bet.
Season team stats

Pro League

Al-Nassr3
Played
Al Taawon3
Al-Nassr3.3
Avg goals for
Al Taawon0.7
Al-Nassr0.7
Avg goals against
Al Taawon1
Al-Nassr2
Clean sheets
Al Taawon2
Market aligned with main pickAl Taawon Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 37% vs implied 22% · edge +15 pts
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
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Al Taawon to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%
8
Check odds @ 8
Al-Nassr’s season stats highlight a prolific attack averaging over 3 goals per game and a strong defense conceding less than 1 goal per match. Al Taawon’s stats show a modest attack and a defense that concedes around 1 goal per game, indicating a team built on defensive solidity rather than scoring prowess. These profiles reinforce the likelihood of a tight contest favoring Al Taawon’s ability to avoid defeat.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
1Al-Nassr933008
12Al Taawon23021-1
Al-Nassr leads the Pro League with 9 points from 3 matches, while Al Taawon sits 12th with 2 points from 4 games. The standings reflect a gap in quality and form but also underline Al Taawon’s underdog status, which can motivate a disciplined defensive approach to secure at least a draw, making the Draw No Bet market relevant in this context.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Al-Nassr Over 2.5
33%Al Taawon Over 2.5
2.4H2H avg goals
Over the last ten meetings, the average goals per match is 2.4, suggesting moderately open games. However, recent trends show Al Taawon’s matches have fewer goals and lower BTTS rates, indicating a slower tempo and defensive focus. This trend supports a controlled game with limited goal-scoring opportunities, aligning with the cautious betting angle on Draw No Bet.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.