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Al-Ettifaq crestAl-Ettifaq
v
Al-Nassr crestAl-Nassr

Pro League | Tue 25 Aug, 19:00

Al-Ettifaq v Al-Nassr Stats

Data last updated: Mon 24 Aug 2026, 07:40 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Al-Nassr enter this Pro League fixture at Al-Awwal Park with strong momentum, having won five consecutive league matches and holding a commanding five-point lead atop the standings. Their attacking prowess is led by Cristiano Ronaldo and João Félix, combining for 40 league goals, while their home form is formidable with 36 points from 13 matches. Al-Ettifaq arrive struggling defensively, conceding 16 goals in their last six games, but retain offensive threats in Wijnaldum and Dembélé. The tactical battle will likely see Al-Nassr pressing high to control possession and tempo, aiming to exploit Al-Ettifaq's defensive vulnerabilities in a match with high stakes for the title race.

BT4Y lean · price warning

Al-Nassr Win & Over 2.5 Goals

  • Price warning: current odds imply about 50%, above the 38% model chance, so this is a football-led pick rather than a clear value bet; reduce stake or wait for a better price.
  • Al-Nassr have scored 78 league goals this season, averaging nearly three goals per home game.
  • Al-Ettifaq have conceded 16 goals in their last six matches, showing defensive fragility.
  • Al-Nassr are on a five-match winning streak, carrying strong momentum into this game.
  • Cristiano Ronaldo and João Félix combine for 40 league goals, providing elite attacking firepower.
Price warning

Al-Nassr Win & Over 2.5 Goals is still the main football pick, but the current price is short: the market implies about 50% while the model sits nearer 38% (-11.9 pts). Keep staking reduced or wait for a better price unless final team news strengthens the selection. Better value alternative: Over 9.5 Corners shows a +14.4 pts edge at 1.83.

Why This Pick Is Price-Sensitive

Football case vs market price

The model recognizes Al-Nassr's dominant home scoring record and Al-Ettifaq's recent defensive struggles as key factors supporting a high-scoring home win. Al-Nassr's average of 2.7 goals per home game and their ability to maintain a tight defense underpin the chance of a multi-goal victory. However, the current market price is shorter than the model's estimated chance, indicating a price-sensitive situation rather than clear value. Reduced staking or waiting for to drift is advisable unless team news or line-ups shift to strengthen the case.

Al-Nassr home goal average2.7 goals per game
Strong positive
Al-Ettifaq goals conceded recently16 goals in last 6 matches
Strong positive
Model chance vs market implied38.1% vs 50% implied chance
Negative
Momentum5 consecutive wins for Al-Nassr
Positive
Price sensitivityCurrent odds shorter than model chance
Negative

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Al-Nassr's superior attacking quality and home control make them strong favorites to win with multiple goals scored. Their ability to control possession and press high should exploit Al-Ettifaq's defensive weaknesses, who have struggled to contain opponents recently. This combination of tactical control and offensive firepower supports the expectation of a high-scoring home victory.

Main risk

Al Ettifaq can carry menace on the break, especially if Wijnaldum arrives late into the box or Dembélé can pin centre-backs, but they are likely to spend too much of the match.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Tactical and attacking superiority

“Al-Nassr's blend of prolific scorers and tactical discipline at home creates a compelling case for a decisive win with goals flowing. Their pressure and movement around the box should overwhelm Al-Ettifaq's fragile defense.”

Key Data Signals

Al-Nassr Win & Over 2.5 Goals evidence

Al-Nassr have scored 78 league goals this season, averaging nearly three goals per home game.

Al-Ettifaq have conceded 16 goals in their last six matches, showing defensive fragility.

Al-Nassr are on a five-match winning streak, carrying strong momentum into this game.

Cristiano Ronaldo and João Félix combine for 40 league goals, providing elite attacking firepower.

What To Watch In The Data

Al-Nassr Win & Over 2.5 Goals notes

  • In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating a tendency toward moderately high-scoring games.
  • Al-Nassr's recent matches show a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Al-Ettifaq's defensive lapses contribute to this trend.
  • The tempo and attacking intent from both sides suggest the continuation of this scoring pattern in the upcoming fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Al-Ettifaq2.5
Avg goals scored
Al-Nassr3.5
Al-Ettifaq1
Avg goals conceded
Al-Nassr0
Al-Ettifaq50%
BTTS rate
Al-Nassr0%
Al-Ettifaq50%
Over 2.5 goals
Al-Nassr100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 88% vs implied 93% · edge -4.6 pts
1.08
Check odds @ 1.08
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BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 54%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 53%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 33%
3.4
Check odds @ 3.4
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Al-Nassr's prolific scoring, with 78 goals this season and nearly three per home game, contrasts with Al-Ettifaq's defensive frailty, conceding 16 goals in six matches. This dynamic supports a high-scoring game with over 2.5 goals likely. Al-Ettifaq's ability to score through players like Wijnaldum adds to the goal potential, though Al-Nassr's defense is generally solid.
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAl-Nassr Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 85% · edge -22 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Al-Nassr to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
The market price for Al-Nassr Win & Over 2.5 Goals is shorter than the model's estimated chance, reflecting strong public in Al-Nassr's control. While the football read is robust, the current imply a 50% chance versus the model's 38.1%, making this a price-sensitive selection where reduced stakes or waiting for better is prudent.
Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Al-Ettifaq9
Avg corners for
Al-Nassr9
Al-Ettifaq12
Avg total corners
Al-Nassr12
Al-Ettifaq1
Avg yellow cards
Al-Nassr0
Al-Ettifaq17
Avg shots
Al-Nassr17
Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 69% vs implied 55% · edge +14.4 pts
1.83
Check odds @ 1.83
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
Over 10.5 CornersBetMGM guide price
2.38
Check odds @ 2.38
Both teams generate significant attacking pressure, with Al-Ettifaq averaging 9 corners and Al-Nassr 7.5 per game, indicating sustained wide play and set-piece opportunities. Discipline is relatively controlled, with Al-Ettifaq averaging one yellow card and Al-Nassr 0.5, suggesting fouls and cards are unlikely to disrupt flow. Shot volumes are high and balanced, with both sides averaging around 17 shots per game, supporting an open contest.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Al-Ettifaq

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
22 Aug 2026A Al-Fateh1-0
14 Aug 2026H Al Riyadh4-2

Al-Nassr

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
21 Aug 2026A Al Riyadh4-0
15 Aug 2026H Al-Fateh3-0
Market aligned with main pickAway / DrawBetfred guide price · Model 80% vs implied 94% · edge -13.8 pts
1.07
Check odds @ 1.07
Load more odds for this section
Al-Nassr Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 63%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Al-Nassr to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Al-Nassr's recent form is excellent, with six points from their last two matches and a 100% over 2.5 goals rate, reflecting their attacking consistency. Al-Ettifaq have managed six points as well but with a 50% over 2.5 goals rate and a 50% BTTS rate, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities and occasional scoring. This form data aligns with expectations of a high-scoring Al-Nassr win.
Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

2Al-Ettifaq wins
3Draws
5Al-Nassr wins
15 Apr 2026Al-Nassr v Al-Ettifaq1-0
30 Dec 2025Al-Ettifaq v Al-Nassr2-2
21 Feb 2025Al-Nassr v Al-Ettifaq2-3
20 Sep 2024Al-Ettifaq v Al-Nassr0-3
22 Dec 2023Al-Nassr v Al-Ettifaq3-1
31 Oct 2023Al-Nassr v Al-Ettifaq1-0
Market aligned with main pickAl-Nassr to WinBetUK guide price · Model 54% vs implied 80% · edge -26.4 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Load more odds for this section
Over 2.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.33
Check odds @ 1.33
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 50%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
The head-to-head sample of ten matches shows an average of 2.8 goals per game, indicating a history of relatively open contests. While past meetings provide some context, current form and tactical setups are more decisive here, with Al-Nassr's home control and Al-Ettifaq's defensive issues carrying greater weight for this match.
Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Pro League

Al-Ettifaq2
Played
Al-Nassr2
Al-Ettifaq2.5
Avg goals for
Al-Nassr3.5
Al-Ettifaq1
Avg goals against
Al-Nassr0
Al-Ettifaq1
Clean sheets
Al-Nassr2
Market aligned with main pickAl-Nassr Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 63% vs implied 85% · edge -22 pts
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Load more odds for this section
Al-Nassr to WinBetUK guide price · model 54%
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
Al-Nassr's season stats show a dominant attack with 78 goals and a strong defense conceding 21, particularly impressive at home with a +28 goal difference. Al-Ettifaq's season reflects defensive struggles, conceding heavily in recent matches, which supports the likelihood of multiple goals for Al-Nassr. These season-long trends reinforce the bet on a high-scoring home victory.
League standings snapshot

Current table context.

PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
2Al-Nassr622007
5Al-Ettifaq622003
Al-Nassr lead the Pro League with a five-point cushion, underscoring their status as title favorites and their motivation to maintain control. Al-Ettifaq sit fourth, but their recent form and defensive issues reduce their competitiveness in this fixture. The standings context highlights the pressure on Al-Nassr to secure a commanding win at home.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

50%Al-Ettifaq Over 2.5
100%Al-Nassr Over 2.5
2.8H2H avg goals
In the last ten head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.8, indicating a tendency toward moderately high-scoring games. Al-Nassr's recent matches show a 100% rate of over 2.5 goals, while Al-Ettifaq's defensive lapses contribute to this trend. The tempo and attacking intent from both sides suggest the continuation of this scoring pattern in the upcoming fixture.

Related football research

Fixture links

Prediction context

Al-Ettifaq v Al-Nassr prediction

Open the full betting preview for the editorial pick, odds context and final selection.

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