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Ajax crestAjax
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Willem II crestWillem II

Eredivisie | Tue 15 Sep, 19:00

Ajax v Willem II Stats

Data last updated: Tue 06 Oct 2026, 13:26 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ajax face Willem II in Eredivisie on Tue 15 Sep, 19:00. Willem II are conceding 7.2 shots on target per league game, a dangerous figure against an Ajax side averaging 6.5 on target across their last 10. Ajax look stronger on recent form, while Willem II remain vulnerable after weaker results.

BT4Y best bet

Hinges on Willem II scoring and Ajax breaking their home drought

  • At 6/5, Hinges on Willem II scoring and Ajax breaking their home drought implies roughly 46%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 48%.
  • Ajax vs Willem II: Ajax’s attacking weight meets a fragile visitors’ defence.
  • Ajax need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Ajax on 10 and Willem II on 2.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Ajax and 80% for Willem II.
  • Hinges on Willem II scoring and Ajax breaking their home drought needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 2.8 for Ajax and 1 for Willem II are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 48% for Hinges on Willem II scoring and Ajax breaking their home drought sits against roughly 46% implied by the current price. Ajax need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Ajax on 10 and Willem II on 2. Ajax vs Willem II: Ajax’s attacking weight meets a fragile visitors’ defence.

Model chance vs price48% model chance against roughly 46% implied
Neutral
Ajax need the result edge to pair with scoring at.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Ajax vs Willem II: Ajax’s attacking weight meets a.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Ajax Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because ajax vs Willem II: Ajax’s attacking weight meets a fragile visitors’ defence. Ajax need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Ajax on 10 and Willem II on 2. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Hinges on Willem II scoring and Ajax breaking their home drought evidence

Ajax vs Willem II: Ajax’s attacking weight meets a fragile visitors’ defence.

Ajax need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Ajax on 10 and Willem II on 2.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 60% for Ajax and 80% for Willem II.

Ajax Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 2.8 for Ajax and 1 for Willem II are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Hinges on Willem II scoring and Ajax breaking their home drought notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ajax2.8
Avg goals scored
Willem II1
Ajax1.2
Avg goals conceded
Willem II2.8
Ajax60%
BTTS rate
Willem II80%
Ajax80%
Over 2.5 goals
Willem II80%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.05
Check odds @ 1.05
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%
4.2
Check odds @ 4.2
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.53
Check odds @ 1.53
BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95

Continue the research

Useful next reads

Eredivisie fixtures and predictionsAjax v Willem II predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAjax Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 78% vs implied 91% · edge -12.9 pts
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
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BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%
1.3
Check odds @ 1.3
Ajax to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Ajax Draw No Bet is price-sensitive at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ajax

WLWDW
Last 53W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 1D 1L
12 Sep 2026A Fortuna Sittard5-1
05 Sep 2026H PSV Eindhoven1-3
30 Aug 2026A Telstar4-0
16 Aug 2026H Heerenveen2-2
09 Aug 2026A PEC Zwolle2-0

Willem II

DLDLL
Last 50W 2D 3L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 2D 3L
11 Sep 2026A AZ Alkmaar1-1
05 Sep 2026H Excelsior0-3
30 Aug 2026H Heerenveen2-2
15 Aug 2026H NEC Nijmegen1-4
08 Aug 2026A GO Ahead Eagles1-4
Market aligned with main pickHome / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 86% vs implied 98% · edge -12 pts
1.02
Check odds @ 1.02
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Ajax Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%
1.1
Check odds @ 1.1
Ajax to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%
1.12
Check odds @ 1.12
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Ajax Over 2.5
80%Willem II Over 2.5
2.9H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Ajax sit at 80% and Willem II sit at 80% with the H2H average at 2.9 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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