Ajax

Willem II

Eredivisie | Tue 15 Sep, 19:00

Ajax v Willem II Stats

Data last updated: Mon 14 Sep 2026, 07:49 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Ajax hosts Willem II in an Eredivisie clash where attacking intent and defensive vulnerabilities shape expectations. Ajax, fifth in the table with 10 points, boasts a potent offense averaging 2.8 goals per game but concedes 1.2 goals on average. Willem II, struggling near the bottom with just 2 points, scores less but concedes heavily at 2.8 goals per match. Both sides have shown a tendency for open games, with Willem II's defensive frailties likely to be tested by Ajax's dynamic attackers. The fixture promises goal-scoring opportunities at both ends, reflecting contrasting tactical approaches and current form.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

Ajax averages 2.8 goals scored and concedes 1.2 per game, indicating offensive strength and some defensive openness.
Willem II concedes 2.8 goals per match but still manages to score, supporting BTTS potential.
Both teams have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, highlighting attacking openness.
Ajax averages 21.4 shots per game with 7 on target, while Willem II averages 11 shots with 2.67 on target, showing active offenses.
Recent form shows Ajax with 10 points and Willem II with 2, but both have contributed goals in recent matches.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 76% chance for both teams to score, supported by Ajax's strong attacking output and Willem II's defensive vulnerabilities. Both teams have high BTTS rates (Ajax 60%, Willem II 80%) and an 80% over 2.5 goals rate, indicating open games with goals at both ends. Ajax's volume of shots and key attacking players like J. Arokodare increase scoring likelihood, while Willem II's attackers, including T. Verheydt, pose a genuine threat despite defensive struggles. The price offers positive value with a 14.3% edge and no price warnings. This pick fits the tactical and statistical profile of the fixture.

Model BTTS Chance76%

Strong positive

Ajax BTTS Rate60%

Positive

Willem II BTTS Rate80%

Strong positive

Over 2.5 Goals Rate Both Teams80%

Strong positive

Value Edge14.3%

Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Both teams have shown a willingness to attack and concede, making both teams to score a tactically sound choice. Ajax's offensive firepower combined with Willem II's defensive struggles suggests goals at both ends, supported by recent form and shot volume data.

Main risk

Clean-sheet strength on one side can quickly weaken the shared-scoring case.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“Ajax's attacking depth and Willem II's defensive issues set the stage for a match where both sides find the net. The data highlights strong shooting and scoring patterns on both sides, making BTTS a compelling angle.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

Ajax averages 2.8 goals scored and concedes 1.2 per game, indicating offensive strength and some defensive openness.

Willem II concedes 2.8 goals per match but still manages to score, supporting BTTS potential.

Both teams have an 80% rate of matches going over 2.5 goals, highlighting attacking openness.

Ajax averages 21.4 shots per game with 7 on target, while Willem II averages 11 shots with 2.67 on target, showing active offenses.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, with a strong trend towards over 2.5 goals in 80% of recent matches for both teams.
This suggests a fast tempo and open play style conducive to multiple goals and supports the BTTS and over 2.5 goals narratives.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

Ajax6.6

Avg corners for

Willem II4.2

Ajax9.2

Avg total corners

Willem II10.6

Ajax2.6

Avg yellow cards

Willem II1

Ajax21.4

Avg shots

Willem II11.6

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 64% vs implied 58% · edge +5.8 pts

1.73

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Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.3

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Over 10.5 CornersBet365 guide price

1.9

Check odds @ 1.9

Ajax averages 6.6 corners and 21.4 shots per game with 7 on target, reflecting sustained attacking pressure. Willem II's 4.33 corners and 11 shots with 2.67 on target show they create chances despite defensive struggles. Ajax's higher yellow card average (2.6) versus Willem II's 0.67 suggests a more aggressive defensive style, influencing match tempo and set-piece opportunities.

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Useful next reads

Eredivisie fixtures and predictions Ajax v Willem II prediction corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Ajax2.8

Avg goals scored

Willem II1

Ajax1.2

Avg goals conceded

Willem II2.8

Ajax60%

BTTS rate

Willem II80%

Ajax80%

Over 2.5 goals

Willem II80%

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts

1.8

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Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%

1.05

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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.22

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Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 29%

4.2

Check odds @ 4.2

Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 57%

1.53

Check odds @ 1.53

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 28%

1.95

Check odds @ 1.95

Both Ajax and Willem II have high BTTS rates, 60% and 80% respectively, and an 80% rate of matches exceeding 2.5 goals. Ajax's average 2.8 goals per game and Willem II's 1 goal per game, despite defensive frailty, point to open matches with goals at both ends.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts

1.8

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Willem II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 30%

6.8

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Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 21%

Check odds @ 17

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 70%

1.3

Check odds @ 1.3

Ajax Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.1

Check odds @ 1.1

Ajax to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%

1.12

Check odds @ 1.12

The Both Teams to Score market is priced attractively with implying a 61.7% chance, while the model estimates a 76% probability, indicating clear value. This positive suggests the market underestimates the likelihood of both teams scoring, supported by strong attacking stats and defensive vulnerabilities.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Ajax

WLWDW

Last 53W 1D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 103W 1D 1L

12 Sep 2026A Fortuna Sittard5-1

05 Sep 2026H PSV Eindhoven1-3

30 Aug 2026A Telstar4-0

16 Aug 2026H Heerenveen2-2

09 Aug 2026A PEC Zwolle2-0

Willem II

DLDLL

Last 50W 2D 3L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 2D 3L

11 Sep 2026A AZ Alkmaar1-1

05 Sep 2026H Excelsior0-3

30 Aug 2026H Heerenveen2-2

15 Aug 2026H NEC Nijmegen1-4

08 Aug 2026A GO Ahead Eagles1-4

Best odds for this sectionAway / DrawBet365 guide price · Model 32% vs implied 17% · edge +15 pts

Check odds @ 6

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Willem II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 30%

6.8

Check odds @ 6.8

Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 21%

Check odds @ 17

Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 86%

1.02

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Ajax Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.1

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Ajax to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%

1.12

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DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%

8.5

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Ajax has collected 10 points recently, scoring 2.8 goals per game while conceding 1.2, showing strong offensive form with some defensive lapses. Willem II's 2 points and 1 goal per game reflect struggles but their 2.8 goals conceded per match suggest defensive weaknesses that can be exploited, supporting the BTTS outlook.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

8Ajax wins

1Draws

1Willem II wins

13 Apr 2025Willem II v Ajax1-2

27 Oct 2024Ajax v Willem II1-0

19 Feb 2022Willem II v Ajax0-1

02 Dec 2021Ajax v Willem II5-0

28 Jan 2021Ajax v Willem II3-1

23 Dec 2020Willem II v Ajax1-1

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 71% vs implied 56% · edge +15 pts

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

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Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 21%

Check odds @ 17

Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 75%

1.22

Check odds @ 1.22

Ajax to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%

1.12

Check odds @ 1.12

DrawBetfred guide price · model 18%

8.5

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The recent 10 meetings between Ajax and Willem II average 2.9 goals per game, indicating a history of open contests. While Ajax generally dominates, Willem II has consistently contributed goals, providing historical backing for both teams to score in this fixture.

Season team stats

Eredivisie

Ajax5

Played

Willem II5

Ajax2.8

Avg goals for

Willem II1

Ajax1.2

Avg goals against

Willem II2.8

Ajax2

Clean sheets

Willem II0

Best odds for this sectionWillem II Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 30% vs implied 15% · edge +15 pts

6.8

Check odds @ 6.8

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Willem II to WinBet365 guide price · model 21%

Check odds @ 17

Ajax Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.1

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Ajax to WinBetMGM guide price · model 74%

1.12

Check odds @ 1.12

Season-long data shows Ajax as a high-scoring team with 2.8 goals per game and a moderate defense conceding 1.2 goals. Willem II's defense is porous, conceding 2.8 goals per match, but they maintain an attacking presence with 1 goal per game. These profiles align with a match featuring goals from both sides.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
5	Ajax	10	5	3	1	1	8
17	Willem II	2	5	0	2	3	-9

Ajax sits 5th with 10 points, reflecting solid form and offensive capability, while Willem II is 17th with 2 points, under pressure to improve results. The standings highlight Ajax's attacking consistency and Willem II's need to score despite defensive frailties, reinforcing the BTTS scenario.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

80%Ajax Over 2.5

80%Willem II Over 2.5

2.9H2H avg goals

In the last 10 head-to-head matches, the average goals scored is 2.9, with a strong trend towards over 2.5 goals in 80% of recent matches for both teams. This suggests a fast tempo and open play style conducive to multiple goals and supports the BTTS and over 2.5 goals narratives.

Next step

Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

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Football Stats Hub

Ajax v Willem II Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Ajax

Willem II

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Football Stats Hub

Ajax v Willem II Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Verdict

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

Ajax

Willem II

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