bet365
BetMGM
Betfred
BetVictor
BetUK
LiveScoreBet
10Bet
Virgin Bet
EasyBet
Ajax vs Willem II: Ajax’s attacking weight meets a fragile visitors’ defence. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Ajax’s high attacking volume and scoring depth support a win against a vulnerable Willem II defence conceding 14 goals in five matches. Despite Ajax’s poor home record, their frequent early goals and Willem II’s ability to score in most matches make both teams scoring likely alongside an Ajax victory. The selection hinges on Willem II scoring and Ajax breaking their home drought.
A 3-1 score fits Ajax’s 2.8 goals per game and Willem II’s 7.2 shots conceded per match. Willem II’s ability to score despite low possession supports them netting once. The exact score is vulnerable to small changes but reflects the attacking and defensive trends.
Unlock the BT4Y Betting Brain pick for Ajax v Willem II
Get one extra match-specific tip generated before kick-off by our proprietary BT4Y Betting Brain Engine and proprietary betting algorithm.
Register FREE to reveal this exclusive extra tip now.No payment required · Unlock instantly · Return straight to this article.
REGISTER FREE & UNLOCK TIP →Already registered? Log in18+ · Historical results only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Betting involves risk.Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Ajax v Willem II.
Ajax return to the Johan Cruijff Arena against Willem II with a curious problem to solve.
Ajax vs Willem II — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Ajax look stronger on recent form, while Willem II remain vulnerable after weaker results.
Willem II hold the stronger winning edge, while Ajax still offer enough threat for BTTS.
Ajax carry the stronger defensive profile, while Willem II remain vulnerable in the likely scoreline.
Ajax create more chances, leaving Willem II under pressure to match their attacking tempo.
Three Punchy Stats
- Ajax have scored 14 goals in five Eredivisie matches, giving them an average of 2.8 per game and underlining the attacking challenge facing Willem II.
- Willem II are conceding 7.2 shots on target per league game, a dangerous figure against an Ajax side averaging 6.5 on target across their last 10.
- Devin Haen has scored three of Willem II’s five league goals, meaning 60% of their Eredivisie output has come from one player.
Scoring Consistency
Recent attacking records for Ajax and Willem II are shown below.
Defensive Solidity
Recent defensive records for Ajax and Willem II are shown below.
Their broader league numbers are strong, their latest result was emphatic and their attack is producing heavily, yet their home record remains awkward: five league matches without a win in Amsterdam stretching back to last season.
Willem II arrive with the opposite issue. Their 1-1 draw away to AZ Alkmaar showed resistance, but they remain winless after five Eredivisie matches and have conceded 14 goals. The central question is whether that improved resilience can survive against an Ajax side averaging 2.4 goals across their last 10 league games.
Ajax have volume and finishing power
The 5-1 win at Fortuna Sittard was more than a routine response to defeat against PSV Eindhoven. Ajax were still level at 1-1 entering the final half-hour before pulling away decisively, with five different scorers contributing.
That spread matters. Tolu Arokodare’s scoring run ended, yet Ajax did not become dependent on one forward to rescue them. Davy Klaassen, meanwhile, has scored four times in five matches, while Julian Brandt, Arokodare and Jorthy Mokio have two league goals apiece across the longer statistical sample.
Ajax have averaged 19 attempts and 6.5 shots on target over their last 10 league matches, scoring 2.4 goals per game. Those are substantial attacking numbers, and they become particularly relevant against opponents conceding both chances and goals at a high rate.
Willem II are allowing too much pressure
Willem II’s opening five league games have produced only two points, with five goals scored and 14 conceded. More concerning than the raw goals-against figure is what sits beneath it.
They have faced 16.8 attempts and 7.2 shots on target per game while averaging only 38.8% possession. That suggests their defensive burden has been persistent rather than the product of a couple of freak scorelines.
The 1-1 draw against AZ offered a better template. Willem II had just 33% possession and three shots on goal, but Devin Haen’s late equaliser secured a point against a side that began the day 16 places above them. It showed they can remain competitive without controlling the ball.
Doing so again will require even greater discipline. Ajax are averaging 562.8 passes and 58.3% possession across their last 10 league matches, so Willem II may again have to withstand long periods without much territorial control.
Haen gives the visitors a route into the game
Willem II’s attacking output has been modest, but Haen provides a clear threat within it. He has scored three of their five Eredivisie goals this season, including the equaliser at AZ.
That concentration of output makes him especially important because Willem II are averaging only 10.6 attempts and 2.4 shots on target. They are not producing enough chances to waste many.
Ajax’s defensive record is hardly impenetrable. They have conceded an average of 1.4 goals across their last 10 league matches, and both teams have scored in seven of Ajax’s last 10 home league games. Willem II have also found the net in four of their five matches this season.
Amsterdam remains the awkward detail
Ajax’s strongest numbers point towards territorial and attacking superiority, but their home sequence cannot simply be dismissed. Two points from the last 15 available at the Johan Cruijff Arena is a striking return for a side currently fifth with 10 points from five matches.
An early goal would help settle that issue. Ajax have opened the scoring in eight of their last 10 matches, while Willem II have conceded first in five of the last six meetings between these sides.
Ajax have also won the last five head-to-head encounters and seven of the previous nine, but the more immediate evidence is arguably more revealing: one side is creating at a high rate, while the other is routinely absorbing significant pressure.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Ajax to win and Both Teams To Score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Ajax vs Willem II 3-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Ajax to win and Both Teams To Score @ 6/5
Ajax enter this match creating high volume in attack, averaging 19 attempts and 6.5 shots on target while scoring 2.4 goals per game across their last 10 league fixtures. Their recent 5-1 win at Fortuna Sittard showcased that depth, featuring five different scorers after being tied entering the final half-hour. Davy Klaassen has produced four goals in five matches, while Julian Brandt, Tolu Arokodare, and Jorthy Mokio have all added two league goals. Facing a Willem II team that has conceded 14 goals in five league matches and allows 7.2 shots on target per game, Ajax have clear statistical support to secure a victory.
The case for Willem II scoring rests on their efficiency relative to modest output alongside Ajax’s persistent defensive gaps. Ajax average 58.3% possession and 562.8 passes per match, but they concede 1.4 goals per game over their last 10 league outings. Furthermore, both teams have scored in seven of Ajax’s last 10 home league games. Willem II produce only 10.6 attempts and 2.4 shots on target per game, yet they have found the net in four of their five matches this season. Devin Haen has provided three of their five league goals, including a late equaliser in a 1-1 draw at AZ Alkmaar, giving the visitors a direct route to contribute to the scoreline.
The main counterpoint is Ajax’s recent home form, having gone five home league matches without a win, earning just two points from the last 15 available in Amsterdam. However, Ajax have opened the scoring in eight of their last 10 games and won the last five head-to-head meetings against Willem II. With Willem II conceding first in five of the last six meetings, Ajax’s attacking volume combined with both teams’ recent scoring trends makes Ajax to win and Both Teams To Score a coherent selection.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Ajax average 2.4 goals, 19.0 attempts, and 6.5 shots on target per match across their last 10 league games.
- Willem II concede 7.2 shots on target per game and have allowed 14 goals in five Eredivisie fixtures this season.
- Both teams have scored in seven of Ajax's last 10 home league games, while Willem II scored in four of five league matches.
Risk Factor: If Willem II fail to score from their low shot volume or Ajax’s home winless streak continues, the main tip will lose.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Averaging 19.0 attempts and 6.5 shots on target per game, yielding 2.8 goals per match in the Eredivisie this season.
Facing 16.8 attempts and 7.2 shots on target per match with 38.8% possession, conceding 14 goals in five league games.
⚔️ Pick 2: Ajax vs Willem II 3-1 @ 8/1
A 3-1 scoreline for Ajax aligns directly with the goal averages and defensive metrics of both sides. Ajax have scored 14 goals in five Eredivisie fixtures this season, averaging 2.8 goals per match, and generate 19 attempts with 6.5 shots on target per game. Willem II’s backline faces 16.8 attempts and 7.2 shots on target per match, having allowed 14 goals across their opening five fixtures. This defensive exposure leaves the visitors vulnerable to conceding multiple goals against an Ajax attack that recently put five past Fortuna Sittard with five distinct goalscorers.
Willem II scoring exactly one goal is supported by their consistent ability to convert limited chances and Ajax’s defensive vulnerability. Ajax concede an average of 1.4 goals per match across their last 10 league games, with both teams scoring in seven of their last 10 home league fixtures. Willem II have scored in four of their five Eredivisie matches despite averaging just 38.8% possession and 2.4 shots on target per game. Striker Devin Haen has accounted for 60% of their league goals, demonstrating that the visitors can capitalise even when territory is limited.
The primary risk to a 3-1 scoreline is its precision. A clean sheet for Ajax—supported by Willem II averaging only 2.4 shots on target—or a fourth Ajax goal given Willem II’s 7.2 shots on target conceded per game would defeat the bet. Nevertheless, 3-1 provides a plausible outcome reflecting Ajax’s scoring output and Willem II’s ability to grab a goal.
Risk Factor: A single goal difference or clean sheet for Ajax would cause the exact 3-1 score prediction to fail.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does "Ajax to win and Both Teams To Score" mean?
Ajax must win and Willem II must score at least one goal for the bet to win.
Why is Ajax tipped to win despite their winless home sequence?
Ajax's strong attack faces a Willem II defence conceding 14 goals in five matches.
How can Willem II score if they average only 38.8% possession?
Willem II have scored in four of five matches despite low possession and shots.
What happens to the Pick 1 bet if Ajax win 3-0?
The bet loses because Willem II failed to score, failing the Both Teams To Score condition.
Why is 3-1 selected for the Pick 2 correct score market?
It reflects Ajax’s scoring average and Willem II’s defensive and scoring records.
Does extra time count for these betting selections?
No, bets settle on the score at the end of normal time only.
