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Eldense crestEldense
v
Eibar crestEibar

Segunda División | Sat 19 Sep, 17:30

Eldense v Eibar Stats

Data last updated: Fri 18 Sep 2026, 07:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Eldense face Eibar in Segunda División on Sat 19 Sep, 17:30. Eldense come in with 5 recent points and 0.6 goals per match, while Eibar have 12 points and 2 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

Eibar to Win

  • At 2.38, Eibar to Win implies roughly 42%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 57%.
  • Eibar have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Eldense.
  • Eibar have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Eibar to Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • Eldense sit 16 in the table, while Eibar sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 57% for Eibar to Win sits against roughly 42% implied by the current price. Eibar have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Eldense.

Model chance vs price57% model chance against roughly 42% implied
Strong positive
Eibar have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points.Visible data support
Positive
Eibar have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Eibar Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers Eibar have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Eldense. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

Eibar to Win evidence

Eibar have the stronger recent points return, taking 12 points from the sample compared with 5 for Eldense.

Eibar have the cleaner defensive sample at 0.6 conceded per match, which helps the Eibar Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

Eldense sit 16 in the table, while Eibar sit 2, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

Eibar to Win notes

    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    Eldense0.6
    Avg goals scored
    Eibar2
    Eldense1.2
    Avg goals conceded
    Eibar0.6
    Eldense20%
    BTTS rate
    Eibar20%
    Eldense40%
    Over 2.5 goals
    Eibar60%
    Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 58% vs implied 47% · edge +11.6 pts
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 76%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 61%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 40%
    3.75
    Check odds @ 3.75
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 43%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Under 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 46%
    1.67
    Check odds @ 1.67
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    Eldense

    WDLDL
    Last 51W 2D 2L
    Last 5 record
    Last 101W 2D 2L
    13 Sep 2026A Sporting Gijon1-0
    05 Sep 2026H Mallorca0-0
    29 Aug 2026A Leganes0-1
    22 Aug 2026H Cadiz2-2
    17 Aug 2026A Almeria0-3

    Eibar

    WWWWL
    Last 54W 0D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 0D 1L
    14 Sep 2026A Celta de Vigo II4-0
    06 Sep 2026H Granada CF3-0
    30 Aug 2026A FC Andorra1-0
    23 Aug 2026H Valladolid1-0
    16 Aug 2026H Tenerife1-3
    Market aligned with main pickEibar to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Away / DrawBetUK guide price · model 84%
    1.36
    Check odds @ 1.36
    Eibar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    2Eibar1254017
    16Eldense55122-3
    Eldense sit in position 16, while Eibar sit in position 2, so table pressure belongs in the Eibar to Win assessment.
    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pickEibar to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Eibar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 43%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    Eibar to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    Eldense6.4
    Avg corners for
    Eibar3.2
    Eldense10.8
    Avg total corners
    Eibar8
    Eldense1.8
    Avg yellow cards
    Eibar2
    Eldense10.6
    Avg shots
    Eibar11
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBet365 guide price · Model 52% vs implied 56% · edge -3.7 pts
    1.8
    Check odds @ 1.8
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    1Eldense wins
    0Draws
    3Eibar wins
    13 Jan 2025Eldense v Eibar1-3
    12 Oct 2024Eibar v Eldense1-0
    30 Mar 2024Eibar v Eldense5-1
    28 Aug 2023Eldense v Eibar2-1
    Market aligned with main pickEibar to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 58%
    2.15
    Check odds @ 2.15
    BTTS YesBetfred guide price · model 43%
    1.83
    Check odds @ 1.83
    The head-to-head sample gives context for Eibar to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Segunda División

    Eldense5
    Played
    Eibar5
    Eldense0.6
    Avg goals for
    Eibar2
    Eldense1.2
    Avg goals against
    Eibar0.6
    Eldense2
    Clean sheets
    Eibar4
    Market aligned with main pickEibar to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 57% vs implied 42% · edge +15 pts
    2.38
    Check odds @ 2.38
    Load more odds for this section
    Eibar Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 72%
    1.75
    Check odds @ 1.75
    Season data supports Eibar to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    40%Eldense Over 2.5
    60%Eibar Over 2.5
    3.5H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Eldense sit at 40% and Eibar sit at 60% with the H2H average at 3.5 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

    Related football research

    Fixture links

    Prediction context

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    Betting context

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