AC Milan

Venezia

Serie A | Fri 28 Aug, 19:45

AC Milan v Venezia Stats

Data last updated: Thu 27 Aug 2026, 08:16 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

AC Milan host Venezia in a Serie A clash where the home side aims to capitalize on their strong attacking form after a 3-point start with two goals scored and one conceded. Venezia, yet to earn points, face a tough challenge to break down Milan's defense while seeking to improve their offensive output. The match promises tactical intensity as Milan look to assert control at home, while Venezia must find ways to unlock scoring opportunities to avoid a difficult start to the season.

BT4Y best bet

Both Teams to Score

AC Milan have scored and conceded in their opening match, showing attacking and defensive openness.
Venezia have yet to score this season, but their shots on target average suggests attacking intent.
Both teams have contrasting BTTS rates: Milan at 100%, Venezia at 0%, indicating a potential for goals at both ends.
Recent form and player attacking profiles support a game where both sides can find the net.
The model estimates a 66.7% chance for both teams to score, offering strong value at current .

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model favors Both Teams to Score with a 66.7% probability, significantly higher than the implied market chance of 45.5%, indicating strong value. AC Milan’s recent matches show consistent goal scoring and conceding, while Venezia’s attacking metrics, including high shots on target from key players like A. Rrahmani, suggest they can breach Milan’s defense. This combination of offensive threat and defensive vulnerability on both sides underpins the likelihood of goals from each team. is high, supported by detailed player and team attacking data.

Model Chance66.7%

Strong positive

Implied Market Chance45.5%

Positive

AC Milan BTTS Rate100%

Strong positive

Venezia Shots on TargetHigh (7 per match)

Positive

Player Attacking ProfilesRabiot and Rrahmani key threats

Positive

Main risk

It does, however, place the burden on Venezia to prove that their record-breaking Serie B attack can translate against stronger opposition.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · BTTS rationale

“Milan’s dynamic midfield and Venezia’s persistent shooting create a scenario ripe for goals at both ends, making BTTS a logical choice for this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Both Teams to Score evidence

AC Milan have scored and conceded in their opening match, showing attacking and defensive openness.

Venezia have yet to score this season, but their shots on target average suggests attacking intent.

Both teams have contrasting BTTS rates: Milan at 100%, Venezia at 0%, indicating a potential for goals at both ends.

Recent form and player attacking profiles support a game where both sides can find the net.

What To Watch In The Data

Both Teams to Score notes

Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.75, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend.
Combined with recent form and attacking player profiles, this trend suggests a lively game with multiple goal-scoring opportunities, consistent with an Over 2.5 goals environment supporting BTTS outcomes.

Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

AC Milan2

Avg goals scored

Venezia0

AC Milan1

Avg goals conceded

Venezia2

AC Milan100%

BTTS rate

Venezia0%

AC Milan100%

Over 2.5 goals

Venezia0%

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts

2.2

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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 51%

Check odds @ 2

Over 1.5 GoalsBetUK guide price · model 71%

1.25

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Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.8

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Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 35%

3.2

Check odds @ 3.2

BTTS NoBet365 guide price · model 37%

1.62

Check odds @ 1.62

AC Milan’s opening game featured goals at both ends, while Venezia have yet to score but maintain a high shots on target average, especially through A. This suggests offensive efforts that could translate into goals. The contrasting BTTS rates highlight Milan’s defensive vulnerability and Venezia’s attacking potential, supporting a BTTS outcome.

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Useful next reads

Serie A hub full betting preview for AC Milan v Venezia corners trends hub football cards angles player stats betting angles stats dashboard football analysis hub prediction centre best bets research acca fixture filtering

Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts

2.2

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AC Milan to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%

1.38

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Venezia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 37%

4.65

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AC Milan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Venezia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 8

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%

Check odds @ 5

The Both Teams to Score market offers clear value as the model’s 66.7% chance exceeds the implied 45.5% chance from current of 2.2. This sizeable indicates the market underestimates Venezia’s ability to score despite their poor start, making the BTTS bet attractive at standard stakes.

Corners, cards and shots

Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

AC Milan4

Avg corners for

Venezia5

AC Milan6

Avg total corners

Venezia8

AC Milan1

Avg yellow cards

Venezia1

AC Milan19

Avg shots

Venezia19

Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetfred guide price · Model 29% vs implied 50% · edge -21 pts

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Both teams average similar corner counts, with Venezia slightly higher, reflecting their attacking pressure despite results. Shot volumes are balanced, with Milan’s 19 shots per match and Venezia’s equal number but higher shots on target, indicating quality chances. Discipline is moderate with low yellow card averages, suggesting a game focused on attacking play rather than stoppages.

Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

AC Milan

Last 51W 0D 0L

Last 5 record

Last 101W 0D 0L

23 Aug 2026A Torino2-1

Venezia

Last 50W 0D 1L

Last 5 record

Last 100W 0D 1L

23 Aug 2026H Lecce0-2

Best odds for this sectionAC Milan to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 73% · edge +1.5 pts

1.38

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Venezia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 37%

4.65

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Away / DrawBetfred guide price · model 45%

Check odds @ 3

Home / DrawBetfred guide price · model 86%

1.08

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AC Milan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.18

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Venezia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 8

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%

Check odds @ 5

Milan’s recent form shows a strong attacking output with goals scored and conceded, reflecting an open style that allows scoring opportunities for both teams. Venezia’s lack of points and goals contrasts with their active shooting stats, indicating offensive intent but finishing issues. This form dynamic supports a scenario where both teams can find the net despite differing results.

Head-to-head

Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

4AC Milan wins

0Draws

0Venezia wins

27 Apr 2025Venezia v AC Milan0-2

14 Sep 2024AC Milan v Venezia4-0

09 Jan 2022Venezia v AC Milan0-3

22 Sep 2021AC Milan v Venezia2-0

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetfred guide price · Model 61% vs implied 46% · edge +15 pts

2.2

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AC Milan to WinBetUK guide price · model 74%

1.38

Check odds @ 1.38

Venezia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 8

Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 53%

1.8

Check odds @ 1.8

DrawBetMGM guide price · model 20%

Check odds @ 5

The four recent meetings between AC Milan and Venezia have averaged 2.75 goals per game, showing a history of open contests with multiple goals. While this sample is limited, it suggests that both teams have found scoring chances against each other, providing historical support for the Both Teams to Score market in this fixture.

Player stats

Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

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Open Match Centre player odds

Season team stats

Serie A

AC Milan1

Played

Venezia1

AC Milan2

Avg goals for

Venezia0

AC Milan1

Avg goals against

Venezia2

AC Milan0

Clean sheets

Venezia0

Best odds for this sectionAC Milan to WinBetUK guide price · Model 74% vs implied 73% · edge +1.5 pts

1.38

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Venezia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 37%

4.65

Check odds @ 4.65

AC Milan Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 78%

1.18

Check odds @ 1.18

Venezia to WinBetMGM guide price · model 23%

Check odds @ 8

Season-long data reveals Milan’s attack is potent but their defense has conceded, aligning with a BTTS profile. Venezia’s defensive record is weaker, and their offensive numbers, including shots and attempts, suggest they can breach defenses. These season stats reinforce the expectation of goals at both ends in this fixture.

League standings snapshot

Current table context.

Pos	Team	Pts	P	W	D	L	GD
5	AC Milan	3	1	1	0	0	1
18	Venezia	0	1	0	0	1	-2

Milan’s position in the top five reflects their quality and home advantage, while Venezia’s bottom placement highlights their struggles. The standings emphasize Milan’s motivation to maintain momentum and Venezia’s need to respond offensively, adding competitive urgency that can lead to goals from both sides.

Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%AC Milan Over 2.5

0%Venezia Over 2.5

2.75H2H avg goals

Over the last four head-to-head matches, the average goals per game is 2.75, indicating a moderately high-scoring trend. Combined with recent form and attacking player profiles, this trend suggests a lively game with multiple goal-scoring opportunities, consistent with an Over 2.5 goals environment supporting BTTS outcomes.

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Betting context

Start with the clearest numbers above, then check live odds, team news and the full prediction before staking.

Read full prediction View match centre

Football Stats Hub

AC Milan v Venezia Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

AC Milan

Venezia

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Football Stats Hub

AC Milan v Venezia Stats

Match Report

Both Teams to Score

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Quote from Expert

Key Data Signals

What To Watch In The Data

Continue the research

AC Milan

Venezia

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