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1. FC Köln crest1. FC Köln
v
Borussia Mönchengladbach crestBorussia Mönchengladbach

Bundesliga | Sun 11 Oct, 14:30

1. FC Köln v Borussia Mönchengladbach Stats

Data last updated: Sat 10 Oct 2026, 08:55 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

This Bundesliga fixture between 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach features two teams struggling defensively and eager to improve their league standing. Köln has shown a tendency for high-scoring matches, with a 75% rate of games going over 2.5 goals, while Gladbach has conceded heavily, allowing 4 goals per game on average. Both sides are motivated to break their poor form, suggesting an open game with attacking intent. The match promises intensity and goal opportunities as both teams seek to reverse their fortunes in front of goal.

BT4Y best bet

Over 3.5 Goals

  • FC Köln has a 75% over 2.5 goals rate this season.
  • Borussia Mönchengladbach concedes an average of 4 goals per game.
  • Recent head-to-head matches average 4.3 goals per game.
  • Both teams average over 16 shots per game, indicating attacking play.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The model assigns a 58% chance for over 3.5 goals, supported by both teams' high goal concession rates and attacking shot volumes. Köln's 75% over 2.5 goals rate and Gladbach's defensive vulnerabilities create a fertile environment for multiple goals. The head-to-head average of 4.3 goals further reinforces the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter. The current of 2.2 offer positive value with a 12.5% edge, making this an attractive bet based on attacking momentum and defensive frailties.

Model Chance58% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance58% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Strong positive
Value Edge58% model chance vs 45.5% implied (+12.5 pts)
Strong positive
Recent Over 2.5 Rate (Köln)75%
Positive
Goals Conceded (Gladbach)4 per game
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Expect an open and attacking match as both 1. FC Köln and Borussia Mönchengladbach have struggled defensively this season. Köln's consistent over 2.5 goals rate and Gladbach's high goals conceded suggest multiple scoring chances. This match is likely to produce several goals, making over 3.5 goals a compelling selection based on form and defensive lapses.

Main risk

A slower tempo or weaker chance quality would make the goals market harder to justify at the current price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Goal-scoring potential

“Given the defensive struggles and attacking tendencies of both sides, this fixture is primed for a high-scoring outcome. The average goals in their recent meetings and current season data strongly indicate that over 3.5 goals is a realistic expectation.”

Key Data Signals

Over 3.5 Goals evidence

FC Köln has a 75% over 2.5 goals rate this season.

Borussia Mönchengladbach concedes an average of 4 goals per game.

Recent head-to-head matches average 4.3 goals per game.

Both teams average over 16 shots per game, indicating attacking play.

What To Watch In The Data

Over 3.5 Goals notes

  • The last 10 head-to-head matches average 4.3 goals, highlighting a historical trend of high-scoring games between these sides.
  • This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a fast-paced match with multiple goal opportunities, supporting over 2.5 goals as a baseline trend.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

1. FC Köln1.5
Avg goals scored
Borussia Mönchengladbach1.5
1. FC Köln2.25
Avg goals conceded
Borussia Mönchengladbach4
1. FC Köln100%
BTTS rate
Borussia Mönchengladbach50%
1. FC Köln75%
Over 2.5 goals
Borussia Mönchengladbach100%
Market aligned with main pickOver 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · Model 58% vs implied 46% · edge +12.5 pts
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
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Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 78%
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 88%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 28%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 26%
2.62
Check odds @ 2.62
Both teams have shown a propensity for goals, with Köln scoring 1.5 and conceding 2.25 per game, and Gladbach scoring 1.5 but conceding 4. Köln's 100% BTTS rate and Gladbach's 50% indicate a mixed but overall open goal environment, supporting the potential for multiple goals and goal exchanges.

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Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Best odds for this sectionOver 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · Model 78% vs implied 67% · edge +11.3 pts
1.5
Check odds @ 1.5
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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 72%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
1. FC Köln Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
1. FC Köln to WinBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 76%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Over 8.5 CornersBet365 guide price · model 75%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
The 58% for Over 3.5 Goals sits against roughly 45.5% implied by the current price (+12.5 pts). The Over 2.5 trend is 75% for 1. FC Köln and 100% for Borussia Mönchengladbach, so the goals angle is not just a price call.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

1. FC Köln

LDLW
Last 51W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 1D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Hamburger SV1-2
12 Sep 2026H Werder Bremen1-1
04 Sep 2026A VfB Stuttgart1-4
29 Aug 2026H 1899 Hoffenheim3-2

Borussia Mönchengladbach

LLLL
Last 50W 0D 4L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 0D 4L
19 Sep 2026H FSV Mainz 053-4
12 Sep 2026A SC Freiburg0-5
05 Sep 2026H SV Elversberg3-4
29 Aug 2026A RB Leipzig0-3
Best odds for this sectionHome / DrawBetMGM guide price · Model 86% vs implied 74% · edge +12.5 pts
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
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1. FC Köln Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 65%
2.02
Check odds @ 2.02
1. FC Köln to WinBetMGM guide price · model 64%
2.05
Check odds @ 2.05
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 45%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
DrawBetMGM guide price · model 22%
3.8
Check odds @ 3.8
Borussia Mönchengladbach Draw No BetBetMGM guide price · model 42%
1.78
Check odds @ 1.78
Borussia Mönchengladbach to WinBet365 guide price · model 23%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
Köln has earned 4 points recently with a 75% rate of over 2.5 goals in matches, while Gladbach has yet to secure points and concedes heavily. Both teams' recent matches have featured multiple goals, reinforcing the expectation of a high-scoring encounter in this fixture.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

75%1. FC Köln Over 2.5
100%Borussia Mönchengladbach Over 2.5
4.3H2H avg goals
The last 10 head-to-head matches average 4.3 goals, highlighting a historical trend of high-scoring games between these sides. This trend, combined with recent form, suggests a fast-paced match with multiple goal opportunities, supporting over 2.5 goals as a baseline trend.

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