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1. FC Heidenheim crest1. FC Heidenheim
v
FSV Mainz 05 crestFSV Mainz 05

Bundesliga | Sat 16 May, 14:30

1. FC Heidenheim v FSV Mainz 05 Stats

Data last updated: Fri 05 Jun 2026, 10:47 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

FC Heidenheim face FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga on Sat 16 May, 14:30. FC Heidenheim come in with 10 recent points and 2.4 goals per match, while FSV Mainz 05 have 4 points and 1.4 goals per match in the same lens.

BT4Y best bet

1. FC Heidenheim to Win

  • FC Heidenheim Win implies roughly 52%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 74%.
  • FC Heidenheim have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for FSV Mainz 05.
  • FC Heidenheim have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the 1. FC Heidenheim Win angle more than a raw possession edge.
  • FC Heidenheim sit 17 in the table, while FSV Mainz 05 sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

FC Heidenheim Win sits against roughly 52% implied by the current price. FC Heidenheim have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for FSV Mainz 05.

Model chance vs price74% model chance against roughly 52% implied
Strong positive
FC Heidenheim have the stronger recent points return, taking 10.Visible data support
Positive
FC Heidenheim have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded.Visible data support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: 1. FC Heidenheim Win is the preferred angle because the market is supported by the current team numbers FC Heidenheim have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for FSV Mainz 05. Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Main risk

Rotation, motivation and a slow tempo are the main cautions before treating the result price as settled.

Key Data Signals

1. FC Heidenheim Win evidence

FC Heidenheim have the stronger recent points return, taking 10 points from the sample compared with 4 for FSV Mainz 05.

FC Heidenheim have the cleaner defensive sample at 1.4 conceded per match, which helps the 1. FC Heidenheim Win angle more than a raw possession edge.

FC Heidenheim sit 17 in the table, while FSV Mainz 05 sit 10, so the standings picture adds pressure context to the result-market read.

What To Watch In The Data

1. FC Heidenheim Win notes

    Corners, cards and shots

    Territory, discipline and chance-volume data.

    1. FC Heidenheim4.4
    Avg corners for
    FSV Mainz 056
    1. FC Heidenheim11.4
    Avg total corners
    FSV Mainz 0510.6
    1. FC Heidenheim0.8
    Avg yellow cards
    FSV Mainz 051.4
    1. FC Heidenheim11
    Avg shots
    FSV Mainz 0515.8
    Best odds for this sectionOver 9.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · Model 68% vs implied 51% · edge +17 pts
    1.98
    Check odds @ 1.98
    Load more odds for this section
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 9.5 Corners needs a clear match pattern behind it. For corners, that means territory, wide deliveries and blocked shots; for cards, it means duels and transition fouls; for shots, it means repeat box entries rather than harmless possession.

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    Bundesliga fixtures and predictionscorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesstats dashboardfootball analysis hubprediction centrebest bets researchacca fixture filtering
    Goals, BTTS and over/under

    Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

    1. FC Heidenheim2.4
    Avg goals scored
    FSV Mainz 051.4
    1. FC Heidenheim1.4
    Avg goals conceded
    FSV Mainz 052
    1. FC Heidenheim80%
    BTTS rate
    FSV Mainz 0580%
    1. FC Heidenheim80%
    Over 2.5 goals
    FSV Mainz 0560%
    Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetUK guide price · Model 76% vs implied 69% · edge +6.6 pts
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Load more odds for this section
    Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 44%
    2.75
    Check odds @ 2.75
    Over 1.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 79%
    1.14
    Check odds @ 1.14
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
    2.2
    Check odds @ 2.2
    BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
    2.62
    Check odds @ 2.62
    BTTS Yes is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: the BTTS rates are 80% for 1. FC Heidenheim and 80% for FSV Mainz 05, so the price depends on both attacks contributing rather than the clean-sheet story.
    Player stats

    Player-level trends, roles and attacking routes.

    Player stats are loading separately so the stats page stays fast.

    Open Match Centre player odds

    Market odds

    Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

    Market aligned with main pick1. FC Heidenheim to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 52% · edge +21.6 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    1. FC Heidenheim Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 52%
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    FC Heidenheim to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
    Recent form

    Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

    1. FC Heidenheim

    WDWLW
    Last 53W 1D 1L
    Last 5 record
    Last 103W 3D 4L
    10 May 2026A 1. FC Köln3-1
    02 May 2026A Bayern München3-3
    25 Apr 2026H FC St. Pauli2-0
    19 Apr 2026A SC Freiburg1-2
    11 Apr 2026H Union Berlin3-1

    FSV Mainz 05

    LWLDL
    Last 51W 1D 3L
    Last 5 record
    Last 104W 3D 3L
    10 May 2026H Union Berlin1-3
    03 May 2026A FC St. Pauli2-1
    25 Apr 2026H Bayern München3-4
    19 Apr 2026A Borussia Mönchengladbach1-1
    12 Apr 2026H SC Freiburg0-1
    Market aligned with main pick1. FC Heidenheim to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 52% · edge +21.6 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    1. FC Heidenheim Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Home / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 86%
    1.25
    Check odds @ 1.25
    Head-to-head

    Recent meetings and how much they still matter.

    21. FC Heidenheim wins
    1Draws
    2FSV Mainz 05 wins
    13 Jan 2026FSV Mainz 05 v 1. FC Heidenheim2-1
    16 Feb 20251. FC Heidenheim v FSV Mainz 050-2
    28 Sep 2024FSV Mainz 05 v 1. FC Heidenheim0-2
    05 May 2024FC Heidenheim v FSV Mainz 051-1
    16 Dec 2023FSV Mainz 05 v FC Heidenheim0-1
    Market aligned with main pick1. FC Heidenheim to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 52% · edge +21.6 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    BTTS YesBetUK guide price · model 76%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    Over 2.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · model 61%
    1.44
    Check odds @ 1.44
    The head-to-head sample gives context for 1. FC Heidenheim to Win, but it should not overrule the current tactical picture. If previous meetings show goals or momentum swings, they support the market only when the present form and line-ups point to the same game state.
    Season team stats

    Bundesliga

    1. FC Heidenheim34
    Played
    FSV Mainz 0534
    1. FC Heidenheim1.2
    Avg goals for
    FSV Mainz 051.3
    1. FC Heidenheim2.1
    Avg goals against
    FSV Mainz 051.6
    1. FC Heidenheim1
    Clean sheets
    FSV Mainz 054
    Market aligned with main pick1. FC Heidenheim to WinBetfred guide price · Model 74% vs implied 52% · edge +21.6 pts
    1.91
    Check odds @ 1.91
    Load more odds for this section
    1. FC Heidenheim Draw No BetBetUK guide price · model 78%
    1.82
    Check odds @ 1.82
    Season data supports 1. FC Heidenheim to Win when the attacking output and defensive control both point towards the same outcome. The useful read is whether those longer-term numbers create a believable route to chances, pressure and game control in this specific match.
    League standings snapshot

    Current table context.

    PosTeamPtsPWDLGD
    10FSV Mainz 054034101014-9
    171. FC Heidenheim26346820-31
    FC Heidenheim sit in position 17, while FSV Mainz 05 sit in position 10, so table pressure belongs in the 1. FC Heidenheim Win assessment.
    Key match trends

    Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

    80%1. FC Heidenheim Over 2.5
    60%FSV Mainz 05 Over 2.5
    2H2H avg goals
    The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: 1. FC Heidenheim sit at 80% and FSV Mainz 05 sit at 60% with the H2H average at 2 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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    Betting context

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