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Roma vs Fiorentina: Olimpico Strength Meets Viola Resilience. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Roma’s unbeaten home run and superior attacking activity underpin the prediction. They average 15 shots and 52 dangerous attacks per game, outmatching Fiorentina’s 12.33 shots and 37.5 attacks. Fiorentina’s ability to score is supported by their four goals in the Coppa Italia and Roma’s recent defensive lapses in friendlies.
Roma’s consistent goal-scoring and shot accuracy support a two-goal tally, while Fiorentina’s lower shot accuracy and recent scoring average suggest a single goal. Historical 2-1 results add context, though the selection is vulnerable to a clean sheet or extra goals.
Roma begin their Serie A campaign against Fiorentina at the Stadio Olimpico with a useful question hanging over them: how much weight should be given to an excellent league finish when pre-season has been considerably less convincing?
Roma vs Fiorentina — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Roma’s home strength and attacking volume give them the edge over Fiorentina.
Roma’s strong home record and attacking volume favour a home victory over Fiorentina.
Both teams have shown goal-scoring ability, suggesting a match with multiple goals.
Roma’s scoring rate and Fiorentina’s modest goal average support a 2-1 outcome.
Three Punchy Stats
- Roma scored 14 goals and conceded only three across their recent six-match sample, a balance that neatly captures why their league finish was so strong.
- Roma averaged 15 shots per game to Fiorentina’s 12.33, while 43% of Roma’s efforts were on target compared with 30% for the visitors.
- Fiorentina have lost only once in their last 11 Serie A matches, but Roma are unbeaten in 12 consecutive home league games — two durable runs meeting at the Olimpico.
Shots per Game
Recent attacking records for Roma and Fiorentina are shown below.
Shot Accuracy
Recent defensive records for Roma and Fiorentina are shown below.
Gian Piero Gasperini’s side closed 2025-26 with five straight league victories, scoring at least twice in each and conceding only two goals across that run. Their preparation for the new season, by contrast, included defeats against Cardiff City and Brighton, plus draws with Cannes and Borussia Dortmund. Fiorentina arrive with a different kind of momentum. Their previous campaign became a fight for survival, yet they lost only once in their final 11 Serie A matches and have since opened competitive business with a 4-1 Coppa Italia win over Benevento.
Roma’s home numbers demand respect
The strongest argument for Roma is not simply that they finished third. It is the combination of defensive control, attacking volume and a formidable home record.
They won 13 league matches at the Olimpico last season and lost only three, while their clean-sheet numbers ranked among the best in Serie A. Their recent statistical profile supports that balance: across six matches Roma scored 14 goals, conceded three and kept four clean sheets.
The underlying attacking activity was substantial too. Roma averaged 15 shots per game, with 43% hitting the target and 76% coming from inside the box. They also averaged 103.5 attacks and 52 dangerous attacks, considerably more than Fiorentina’s corresponding 75.33 and 37.5.
Those figures suggest a side capable of sustaining pressure rather than relying on isolated moments. Roma also averaged 56% possession and more than 500 passes per match, giving them several routes towards territorial control.
The one complication is their recent friendly form. Conceding four against Cardiff and three against Brighton does not erase last season’s defensive record, but it gives Fiorentina more encouragement than Roma’s league finish alone might imply.
Fiorentina have become harder to dismiss
The Viola’s survival struggle obscures how sharply their league form improved. Paolo Vanoli oversaw the division’s seventh-best record during the second half of last season, while the team finished with only one defeat in 11 league matches and five clean sheets from their final eight.
Fabio Grosso therefore inherits something more stable than the overall league campaign might suggest.
Fiorentina’s attacking figures remain more modest than Roma’s. Across their recent six-match sample they scored seven goals, averaged 12.33 shots and put 30% of attempts on target. They also failed to score in three of those six matches.
That is where Moise Kean matters. Fiorentina’s leading scorer in each of the previous two seasons opened this one with a goal against Benevento. He has four league goals against Roma, although none has come at the Olimpico despite 10 previous attempts there.
Recent history makes the task steeper
Roma beat Fiorentina 4-0 at this ground in May and 2-1 in Florence earlier last season. More broadly, the visitors have won only three of 52 league meetings at the Olimpico, with their most recent victory there coming in 2018.
Roma are also unbeaten in their last 12 home Serie A matches and have avoided defeat in 22 of their last 24 home league games against Fiorentina.
Yet Fiorentina’s own late-season record prevents this from being reduced to history alone. Ten unbeaten results from their last 11 Serie A fixtures points to genuine resistance, even if five of their most recent six league matches produced only one victory.
Other opportunities in this market
- Match Result (Roma Win): Settles strictly on Roma winning after 90 minutes. It accepts any scoreline where Roma lead at full-time, offering lower odds in exchange for covering clean-sheet home wins.
- Over 2.5 Goals: Settles if the match contains three or more total goals regardless of which team scores them. This covers alternative qualifying scorelines such as 3-0, 2-2, or 1-2.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Roma to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Roma vs Fiorentina 2-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
Pick 1: Roma to win and both teams to score @ 5/2
Roma’s strong record at the Stadio Olimpico provides the principal backing for the home victory component. Gian Piero Gasperini’s side won 13 league matches on home soil last season and enter this campaign on a 12-match unbeaten home run in Serie A. Their attacking activity supports that record, with Roma averaging 15 shots per game—76% of which are taken inside the penalty box—alongside an average of 52 dangerous attacks per match. In contrast, Fiorentina record 37.5 dangerous attacks per game, giving the hosts a notable advantage in territorial pressure and shot volume.
Supporting the away goal requirement relies on Fiorentina breaching a defence that experienced recent pre-season difficulties. While Roma recorded four clean sheets in their final six league matches of last season, they surrendered seven goals across friendly matches against Cardiff City and Brighton. Fiorentina began their competitive fixtures by scoring four goals against Benevento in the Coppa Italia. Forward Moise Kean has registered four career goals against Roma, offering a direct focal point against a backline that exposed defensive gaps during summer preparation.
The primary counter-argument stems from Roma’s prior head-to-head defensive performance, having beaten Fiorentina 4-0 in this fixture in May. However, Fiorentina lost only once across their concluding 11 Serie A matches last season, demonstrating enough ongoing resilience to capitalise if Roma’s pre-season defensive concessions carry over into competitive play. The combined metrics favor a home win alongside an away strike.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Roma won 13 home league matches last season and remain unbeaten in 12 consecutive Serie A fixtures at the Olimpico.
- Roma generate 15 shots and 52 dangerous attacks per game compared with Fiorentina's 12.33 shots and 37.5 dangerous attacks.
- Fiorentina scored four goals in their Coppa Italia opener, while Roma conceded seven goals across pre-season friendlies against Cardiff and Brighton.
Risk Factor: If Roma keep a clean sheet, the Both Teams to Score condition fails and the bet loses.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Averaging 52 dangerous attacks and 15 shots per game, with 76% taken from inside the box.
Won only 3 of 52 Serie A visits to Roma, failing to win in 22 of their last 24 trips to this ground.
Pick 2: Roma vs Fiorentina 2-1 @ 13/2
Justifying a 2-1 scoreline requires separate evidence for Roma scoring twice and Fiorentina limited to a single response. Roma’s goal volume provides support for a two-goal tally; they scored at least twice in each of their final five Serie A victories last season and registered 14 goals across their recent six-match sample. Generating 15 shots per match with a 43% on-target rate, Gasperini’s team maintain the shot volume and target accuracy required to score at least twice against Fiorentina, as they did in Florence last season.
Conversely, Fiorentina’s statistics support a singular goal rather than a higher tally. Across their last six matches, the visitors scored seven goals—an average of 1.17 goals per game—while failing to find the net in three of those fixtures. Although a 4-1 Coppa Italia victory over Benevento demonstrated offensive output, their 30% shot accuracy rate from 12.33 attempts per match indicates a lower overall conversion frequency against top-tier opposition. With Moise Kean seeking his first goal at the Olimpico in 11 visits, one goal represents a realistic ceiling.
Historical precedent offers secondary context, as Roma recorded a 2-1 victory in the reverse fixture last season. The main vulnerability of this exact scoreline is its narrow tolerance; a clean sheet by Roma or one additional goal from either team defeats the selection.
Risk Factor: A 2-0 Roma win or a third goal from either side will cause the bet to fail.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does 'Roma to win and both teams to score' mean?
Roma must win and Fiorentina must score at least one goal for the bet to win.
What happens if the match finishes 2-0 to Roma?
The bet loses because Fiorentina failed to score despite Roma winning.
Why are Roma favoured to win this Serie A match?
Roma have a strong home record and generate more shots and attacks than Fiorentina.
What makes Fiorentina capable of scoring at the Stadio Olimpico?
Fiorentina scored four goals in their recent Coppa Italia match and Roma conceded seven in friendlies.
Does the 2-1 Correct Score selection include extra time?
No, it applies only to the score at the end of regular time plus injury time.
How does historical head-to-head record favour Roma?
Fiorentina have won only 3 of 52 league meetings at the Olimpico, rarely winning there.
