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Can Parma’s stubborn home script survive Juventus’ new defensive edge at the Tardini? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Juventus are revitalised under Spalletti, conceding just 8 goals in 13 matches. Parma are on a three-match goalless streak and lack finishing quality. Given Juventus’ defensive discipline and Parma’s offensive silence, an away win in a low-scoring encounter is the most probable outcome at the Tardini.
Read Rationale ▾
Parma have failed to score in 48% of their matches this season and are currently on a 300-minute goal drought. Juventus average two goals per game under current management while maintaining an elite clean sheet rate, making a controlled 2-0 victory for the visitors a logical scoreline.
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Parma vs Juventus Predictions and Best Bets
Parma vs Juventus — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Key match insights and implied probabilities derived from latest BetMGM prices.
Juventus arrive at the Tardini with significant momentum, as reflected by an implied win probability exceeding 60%.
Low-scoring away wins dominate the pricing as Parma struggle for offensive consistency.
Implied probabilities suggest a high likelihood of a low-scoring match given Parma’s recent 0-0 streak.
- Parma’s silence in the net: Parma’s last three Serie A matches have finished 0-0, and across the league season they’ve scored only 14 goals in 22 games, with 48% of their matches seeing them fail to score.
- Juventus’ clampdown since Spalletti: Since Luciano Spalletti arrived, Juventus have conceded just 8 goals in 13 Serie A matches, and still managed 23 goals scored in that same spell.
- Shot and territory gap: Parma average 43% possession and 11.3 shots per game, while Juventus sit at 55% possession with roughly 16 shots per game — a swing that usually decides where the match gets played.
Defensive Performance: Goals Conceded
Juventus have tightened significantly at the back since the arrival of Spalletti compared to Parma’s season average.
A relentless defensive structure that has limited opponents to very few scoring opportunities.
Parma have struggled to maintain clean sheets over the full duration of the league campaign.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Game
The difference in offensive pressure is clear when comparing average shooting volumes.
Reflects their dominance in possession and frequent entries into the final third.
Parma rely on efficient transitions rather than sustained territorial pressure.
Sunday evening at Stadio Ennio Tardini has all the ingredients for a proper stress test. Parma, led by Carlos Cuesta, are scrapping to climb away from mid-table trouble, but their recent league run has been brutally blunt: three straight goalless draws, and a season total of just 14 goals.
Juventus arrive with very different momentum. They’ve just smashed Napoli 3-0, then followed it with a 0-0 in Monaco that confirmed a Champions League playoff place — and their domestic run now matters even more with Lazio and Inter Milan looming. Kick-off is 19:45, and the vibe feels clear: Parma want to drag this into a low-scoring trench fight. Juventus want to turn it into a controlled squeeze.
Team News & Lineups
Team News (injuries/absences)
- Parma: P. Almqvist (hamstring strain, until 28/03/2026)
- Parma: L. Valenti (muscle injury, until 25/02/2026)
- Parma: M. Frigan (cruciate ligament tear, until 02/02/2026)
- Parma: Z. Suzuki (broken hand, until 27/02/2026)
Probable Lineups
Parma (possible XI):
Corvi; Delprato, Circati, Troilo; Britschgi, Bernabe, Keita, Sorensen, Valenti; Ondrejka; Pellegrino
Juventus (possible XI):
Di Gregorio; Kalulu, Bremer, Kelly, Cambiaso; Locatelli, Thuram; Conceicao, McKennie, Yildiz; David
What it means
Parma’s big issue is obvious: goals. Mateo Pellegrino carries the scoring load with 6 league goals, but Parma are “very weak” at finishing chances — so they need volume, second balls, and set-piece chaos to create enough danger.
Juventus look built for control and pressure. Kenan Yildiz (8 goals, 4 assists, 7.34 rating) gives them the spark between the lines, while Manuel Locatelli and Khéphren Thuram set the tempo and win it back quickly.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Parma | Juventus |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th (23 pts) | 5th (42 pts) |
| Goals scored (Serie A) | 14 | 35 |
| Goals conceded (Serie A) | 26 | 17 |
| Shots per game | 11.3 | 16.2 |
| Possession | 43% | 57% |
| Pass accuracy | 78.7% | 87.0% |
| Corners per game | 3.36 | 5.52 |
| Clean sheets (all leagues listed) | 8 (25 games) | 13 (31 games) |
This screams “territory battle”. Juventus have the ball, the shots, and the corner pressure. Parma are more likely to be defending deep, hanging in, and trying to nick moments — especially with their recent home run loaded with tight scorelines and under 2.5 goals in five straight at the Tardini.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Parma’s plan: deep block, width, and long balls
Parma play in their own half, hit long balls, attempt crosses often, and take long shots. That style makes sense when you don’t keep possession well — and Parma don’t. With 43% possession and a weakness in keeping the ball, they’re set up to survive without it.
But survival isn’t the same as threat. Parma’s finishing has been a problem all season, and their last three league matches have produced zero goals full stop. If they’re going to hurt Juventus, it’s likely through set pieces (one of their strengths) and direct deliveries into Pellegrino, who also leads them in aerials won at 3.6 per game.
Keep an eye on Adrián Bernabé (2 goals) and Sascha Britschgi (2 assists). If Parma are going to create anything, it’s probably from a rare spell of possession that ends with a cross, a second ball, or a shot from range.
Juventus’ squeeze: control, through balls, and wing pressure
Juventus are comfortable living in the opposition half. They play possession football with short passes, attempt through balls often, and attack down the left — which puts Andrea Cambiaso and the left-side rotations right in the spotlight.
Their strength list is basically a warning label for Parma: counter-attacks, wing attacks, individual skill, set pieces, and chance creation. And defensively, the headline is ruthless: since Spalletti arrived, Juventus have conceded just 8 goals in 13 league matches.
There is a wobble point, though. Juventus are weak in aerial duels and very weak at avoiding individual errors. That’s Parma’s doorway. If Parma can funnel the match into scrappy deliveries, chaos in the box, and second phases, they can turn Juventus’ control into nervous defending.
Where the match tips
- Corners and pressure: Juventus average 5.52 corners per game. If that starts stacking up early, Parma’s back line will be permanently set.
- Yildiz in the pocket: Yildiz is the one who turns sterile possession into a cut-back or a slipped pass. If Parma can smother that space, they slow Juventus down.
- Parma’s final ball: They can’t afford waste. With their goal drought, even one good crossing moment has to land with meaning.
Key Moments to Watch
- First goal timing: Parma’s average first goal time sits at 45′ — Juventus’ at 49′ — hinting at a game that can simmer before it snaps.
- Set pieces at both ends: Both teams rate well defensively on set pieces at Juventus’ end, and Parma’s strongest attacking route is dead balls. This could be a “one delivery decides it” night.
- Discipline and errors: Juventus’ “individual errors” weakness is the kind that only shows up under pressure. Parma must make it uncomfortable, not comfortable.
What could go wrong?
For Parma, it’s the same story that’s been haunting them: they defend well, work hard, then the final action dies — and Juventus’ sustained pressure eventually finds a gap. For Juventus, it’s getting dragged into a low-tempo slog, switching off for one scrappy moment, and watching a match they’ve controlled turn into a game of survival.
Best Bet for Parma vs Juventus
Can Parma’s stubborn home script survive Juventus’ new defensive edge at the Tardini?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | Parma 14 goals; Juve 35 goals | Away Win |
| Defence | Juve 8 conc. in 13; Parma 3 clean sheets | Under 2.5 Goals |
| Form | Parma 0 goals in 3; Juve 3-0 Napoli | Juve Win to Nil |
| Pressure | Parma 11.3 shots; Juve 16.2 shots | Juve -1 Handicap |
Juventus to Win & Under 3.5 Goals
Juventus enter this fixture as a transformed unit. Since the change in management, they have prioritised defensive solidity without sacrificing their clinical nature in the final third. Conceding only eight goals in their last 13 Serie A matches demonstrates a level of control that Parma simply cannot match. This defensive discipline is the foundation of their current climb up the table, having achieved 13 clean sheets across all competitions this season.
Parma are suffering from a chronic lack of output. Failing to score in 48% of their league matches is a terminal statistic for a side facing elite opposition. They have now gone three consecutive league matches without finding the net, and despite their ability to stay in games through a deep block, they lack the individual quality to punish teams on the counter-break. Their average first goal time is 45 minutes, suggesting they lack early offensive urgency.
The tactical layout favours a controlled squeeze by the visitors. Juventus average 57% possession and 16.2 shots per game, meaning the majority of this match will be played in Parma’s defensive third. While Parma will attempt to use long balls to Pellegrino to alleviate pressure, Juventus’ backline—shielded by Manuel Locatelli and Khéphren Thuram—is expertly drilled to neutralise direct attacks and win second balls.
With Parma seeing Under 2.5 goals in five straight home games at the Tardini, they have proven they can keep scores low, but they cannot hold out for 90 minutes against a side with the creative spark of Kenan Yildiz, who has already contributed eight goals and four assists. Juventus will dominate territory and eventually find the breakthrough, but their own focus on defensive control makes a high-scoring blowout unlikely.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk is Juventus’ weakness in aerial duels and individual errors. If Parma can manufacture enough set-piece opportunities—which is one of their few statistical strengths—they could snatch a scrappy goal against the run of play. If the match remains 0-0 deep into the second half, Juventus may over-commit, leaving space for a rare Parma counter-attack led by Pellegrino to succeed.
Correct Score Lean
Parma 0-2 Juventus
This scoreline aligns with every relevant metric. Parma have averaged only 0.63 goals per game this season and are currently on a three-match scoring drought in the league. Conversely, Juventus have been ruthless, recently dismantling Napoli 3-0. Given that Juventus have kept a clean sheet in over 40% of their games and Parma’s finishing is rated as very weak, a comfortable two-goal cushion for the visitors is the most realistic outcome. Juventus will likely find an early goal through wing pressure and a second late in the game as Parma are forced to move higher up the pitch.
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