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Can Cesc Fàbregas’ high-flying Como extend their winning streak against a struggling Pisa side desperate for away points? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Como have won four straight Serie A games, scoring at least twice in each. Pisa are winless away from home and conceded 31 goals on the road. Given Como’s 61.4% possession and creative dominance through Nico Paz, a comfortable victory by more than one goal is highly likely.
Read Rationale ▾
Como defeated Pisa 3-0 in the reverse fixture and enter this match in peak form. Pisa’s low attacking output (23 goals all season) and defensive frailty away from home suggest a repeat of the previous scoreline is plausible as Como dominate territory and finishing quality.
[bt4y_readers_tip]
Como on the charge, Pisa under pressure — can the visitors disrupt the rhythm at Sinigaglia? Como host Pisa at Sinigaglia with momentum, possession and survival pressure set to shape a sharp Serie A contest.
Como vs Pisa — bet365 Market Snapshot
Key metrics and sample pricing for today’s Serie A fixture.
Como’s four straight wins and Pisa’s winless away record drive a significant probability gap in the match outcome pricing.
Como have scored at least twice in their last four games, supporting the likelihood of a high-scoring encounter at Sinigaglia.
Como won the last meeting 3-0, a result mirrored by their current dominance in possession and shot volume metrics.
Como’s 61.4% possession suggests they will dictate the play, making handicap markets particularly interesting for this match-up.
- Como are playing front-foot football: Como have scored 48 goals in 29 Serie A games, average 14.3 shots per match and carry 61.4% possession, which points to a side that controls the ball, sets the tempo and keeps opponents pinned back for long stretches.
- Pisa’s away problem is brutal: Pisa are still without a league win on the road, with eight draws and six defeats away from home, and they have conceded 31 goals in those 14 matches despite scoring 16 themselves.
- The gap in attacking fluency is huge: Como have won four straight Serie A games and scored at least two goals in all four, while Pisa have managed only 23 league goals all season, which leaves very little margin for error here.
Match Tempo: Average Shots per League Game
Como’s aggressive style leads to significantly more goal-scoring opportunities compared to Pisa’s direct approach.
With 48 goals scored in 29 games, Como maintain a consistent threat throughout the full 90 minutes.
Pisa struggle to create regular openings, reflected in their total of just 23 goals all season.
Territorial Control: Possession Average
Como dictate the speed of the game by keeping the ball, while Pisa often look to hit long on the counter.
A high pass success rate of 87.1% allows Como to pin opponents back for long periods.
Pisa rely heavily on aerial duels (19.8 per game) rather than controlled building phases.
Match Preview
Como come into this one with real swagger. Cesc Fàbregas has his side moving with confidence, scoring freely and stacking results at exactly the right time in the season. They sit fourth, they have won four straight Serie A matches, and the chase for Champions League football feels alive.
Pisa travel to Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia at 11:30 with a different kind of urgency. Oscar Hiljemark’s men finally snapped a 17-match wait for a league win by beating Cagliari 3-1, but the wider picture remains grim. They are still second-bottom, still nine points from safety, and still chasing a first away win of the campaign.
There is unfinished business here too. Como won the reverse fixture 3-0 in January, so Pisa need a response. The problem is that they now face a team in much sharper rhythm.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Como
- Jayden Addai is out with an Achilles tendon rupture until 30 June 2026.
- Assane Diao Diaoune is away on international duty.
Como still look loaded with attacking craft, especially between the lines and around the edge of the box.
Probable Como lineup
Butez, Van Der Brempt, Ramon, Kempf, Valle, Caqueret, De Cunha, Vojvoda, Paz, Baturina, Douvikas
What it means for Como
- The missing wide options trim some depth, but the likely XI still carries plenty of creativity.
- Nico Paz becomes even more central to the plan, with 9 goals, 6 assists and a huge 3.6 shots per game.
- Tasos Douvikas gives them the penalty-box edge, while Baturina and Vojvoda can keep Pisa’s back line moving.
Pisa
No new injuries or suspensions are explicitly listed in the expected XI.
Pisa’s likely shape looks set for three centre-backs, wing-backs and two forwards.
That structure should help them defend the box, but it also risks leaving them pinned deep if Como dominate possession.
Probable Pisa lineup
Nicolas, Coppola, Canestrelli, Caracciolo, Leris, Hojholt, Loyola, Angori, Tramoni, Moreo, Stojilkovic
What it means for Pisa
- Antonio Caracciolo arrives in strong mood after scoring twice last time out.
- Stefano Moreo remains Pisa’s top league scorer with 6 goals, so he has to offer more than hold-up play.
- If Pisa cannot get Tramoni on the ball in advanced areas, their attack could become direct and predictable very quickly.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Como | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| Serie A games | 29 | 29 |
| Goals scored | 48 | 23 |
| Shots per game | 14.3 | 9.9 |
| Possession | 61.4% | 39.8% |
| Pass success | 87.1% | 76.2% |
| Aerials won | 14.0 | 19.8 |
| Team rating | 6.71 | 6.45 |
| Points | 54 | 18 |
This screams territorial control for Como. They keep the ball far better, pass it far better and produce far more shots. That usually means one thing: long spells in the opposition half and repeated pressure on the same defenders.
Pisa’s obvious edge is in the air. They win 19.8 aerial duels per game, which is massive, and that gives them a route to survive broken phases and attack second balls. But if the match is played on the deck, Como look better equipped almost everywhere.
Tactical Battle
Como should own the ball and the centre
Como’s style is easy to read and hard to stop when it clicks. They play possession football, attack through the middle, use short passes and attempt through balls often. Against a Pisa side that is weak at keeping possession, the pattern should tilt towards long phases of Como control.
That puts the spotlight straight on Nico Paz. He is Como’s attacking hub, their top-rated player at 7.50, and the man most likely to drag Pisa out of shape. With 9 goals and 6 assists, he is not just a creator. He is the one who speeds the move up, shifts defenders and then finishes it himself.
Around him, Lucas da Cunha, Maxence Caqueret and Martin Baturina can keep the game moving. Como’s pass accuracy of 87.1% is not decorative. It tells you they can recycle attacks without losing structure. Pisa may have to defend one phase, then another, then another.
Pisa’s hope lies in height, width and broken moments
Pisa are not built to go pass for pass. They play with long balls, attack down the right, cross often and spend much of the match in their own half. Their game is more physical, more direct and more reactive.
That route is not hopeless, because Como do have one clear weakness: they are not great at stopping opponents from creating chances. If Pisa can survive the early pressure and make this match messy, they can ask awkward questions.
The best way to do that is obvious. Hit early balls into Moreo or Stojilkovic, attack second balls, and use Leris and Angori to stretch the pitch. Pisa are also very strong in aerial duels, so set pieces and diagonal deliveries are a real route into the game.
But there is a catch. Pisa are very weak at defending counter-attacks, very weak at defending skilful players and weak at defending set pieces. Against a side with Como’s movement and technical quality, those flaws can stack up fast. One broken corner, one bad clearance, one missed runner — and suddenly the pressure returns.
Key Zones
This game could turn on how each side handles the final pass. Como create through balls very well and finish chances strongly. Pisa, by contrast, are very weak at finishing scoring chances and weak at protecting a lead.
That matters because Pisa may not get many clean sights of goal. Their average first goal comes late at 58 minutes, while they concede at 44 minutes, which suggests they often spend the early stretch reacting rather than imposing. Como, meanwhile, average their first goal at 35 minutes, which fits a team that starts fast and makes its pressure count.
If Como score first, they have the structure to squeeze the life out of the fixture. They are managing matches with much more authority now.
Key Moments to Watch
- Nico Paz between the lines: Pisa will hate facing him if he receives on the half-turn and starts running at centre-backs.
- Pisa’s response to early pressure: Como average 61.4% possession, so the visitors must stay compact without dropping too deep.
- Set pieces at both ends: Pisa are weak at defending them, but their aerial strength means they can still threaten from dead balls.
- The right side of Pisa’s attack: Their style leans that way, and any space behind Como’s full-backs could become valuable.
- Douvikas in the box: His 10 league goals make him the obvious finisher if Como keep delivering dangerous balls into the area.
- Discipline in central zones: Both sides are aggressive, and Pisa cannot afford cheap fouls around the edge of the box against such a technical side.
What Could Go Wrong?
For Como, the danger is overconfidence. Their form is excellent, the table looks kind, and the possession numbers suggest control. But if they get sloppy with the ball or too casual against direct play, Pisa have enough height and enough runners to turn one ugly phase into a real problem.
For Pisa, the risk is that the game becomes wave after wave of Como possession, too many passes around their box, and too little relief once they win it back. If that happens, the shape starts to stretch, the clearances get shorter, and the match becomes about survival rather than resistance.
📊 Market Explainer
Handicap Betting (Pick 1)
A handicap market gives one team a virtual advantage or deficit before kick-off. In this case, starting with -1.5 means the team must win by two or more clear goals for the selection to be successful.
Pros: Higher prices than the standard match winner market. Cons: Requires a dominant performance and higher winning margin.
Correct Score (Pick 2)
This market requires the final result of the match to exactly match the predicted scoreline. It is a high-variance market because a single late goal can change everything.
Pros: Excellent price potential. Cons: Extremely low margin for error and highly volatile.
🎯 Como vs Pisa: Main Bet Rationale
Como enter this fixture in exceptional form, having won four consecutive Serie A matches while scoring at least twice in each victory. Their tactical setup under Cesc Fàbregas is built on extreme territorial control, as evidenced by their 61.4% average possession and a high pass success rate of 87.1%. This technical superiority allows them to create 14.3 shots per game, frequently pinning opponents deep within their own defensive third.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Como have won four straight Serie A matches with high attacking fluency.
- Pisa remain winless on the road this season with six away defeats.
- The reverse fixture ended in a dominant 3-0 victory for Como in January.
The mismatch in attacking reliability is stark; Como have netted 48 times this season compared to Pisa’s league-low total of 23. Given that Pisa concede an average of over two goals per away game (31 in 14 matches) and Como average their first goal relatively early at 35 minutes, the hosts are well-positioned to establish and widen a lead. Nico Paz, with 9 goals and 6 assists, provides the creative spark necessary to unlock a Pisa back line that often struggles against skilful movement.
Risk Factor: Como’s occasional vulnerability at the back could allow Pisa to exploit set-pieces where they win 19.8 aerial duels per game.
Key Tactical Mismatch
🎯 Correct Score Analysis: Como 3-0 Pisa
The 3-0 scoreline is a plausible outcome based on the established patterns for both teams. Como’s attacking efficiency is at a season high, scoring twice or more in their last four matches, while Pisa have failed to find much attacking rhythm away from home. Pisa’s total of 23 goals in 29 games highlights a significant struggle in the final third, especially when they average only 39.8% possession.
When these sides met in January, Como secured a comfortable 3-0 victory, and the tactical disparity has only widened since then. Como are strong at protecting a lead and managing the game-state once ahead, while Pisa are weak at protecting leads and finishing chances. If Como find an early breakthrough as they typically do at home, Pisa’s lack of away goals (16 in 14 games) makes a comeback unlikely, leaving them vulnerable to counter-attacks as they chase the game.
Risk Factor: Should Pisa manage to utilise their aerial strength (winning 19.8 duels per match) to score an unlikely goal, the correct score prediction would be voided.
❓ Interactive Q&A
⊕ What is a -1.5 Handicap bet?
⊕ Why is Como 3-0 a plausible scoreline?
⊕ How does possession affect the betting outlook?
⊕ What are Pisa’s main strengths to watch out for?
⊕ Who is the most dangerous player for Como?
⊕ What is Pisa’s away form like?
⊕ When do these teams usually score?
⊕ What is the significance of the “Correct Score” market?
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