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Can Lazio finally find their finishing touch at the Olimpico against a Fiorentina side that live on set-piece chaos? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Lazio sit ten positions higher than Fiorentina in the table and hold a significant historical advantage in Rome, winning six of the last nine home head-to-heads. Fiorentina’s away form is among the worst in the division, characterized by three consecutive Serie A road defeats and a total of five losses in their last six away games across all competitions. While Lazio have lacked goals recently, their defensive record of nine clean sheets in 18 matches provides a stable platform to overcome a struggling visitor that is weak at defending through balls and protecting leads.
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Statistical trends strongly point toward a low-scoring game where at least one team fails to score. In 84% of Lazio's matches this season, both teams have not found the net. Furthermore, Lazio’s last eight matches have all resulted in under 2.5 goals. With Lazio being statistically strong at protecting a lead and Fiorentina being weak at finishing chances, a single goal for the home side is likely to be enough to decide a tight tactical battle at the Olimpico.
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Lazio vs Fiorentina Predictions and Best Bets
Lazio vs Fiorentina — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Lazio enter as favorites based on their superior league standing and Fiorentina’s recent struggles on the road.
Low-scoring margins are anticipated given Lazio’s strong defensive organization and clean sheet record.
Analysis of defensive trends suggests a higher likelihood of the match staying under the 2.5 goal line.
- Home drought, loud consequences: Lazio have failed to score in their last two home league matches, drawing 0-0 with Cremonese before losing 0-2 to Napoli.
- Shot volume vs output tension: Fiorentina average 13.8 shots per Serie A match compared to Lazio’s 11, yet both teams sit on 18 league goals after 18 games.
- Tight Lazio matches by design: In the listed “both teams scored” split, Lazio have seen BTTS “Yes” in only 3 of 19 matches (16%) and “No” in 16 (84%).
League Performance: Total Points Earned
A substantial gap exists in the standings between the two clubs heading into this round 19 fixture.
Positioned 9th in the table, Lazio have effectively doubled the point tally of their upcoming opponents.
Currently 19th, the visitors have struggled to convert possession into points across the first half of the campaign.
Defensive Reliability: Clean Sheet Record
Shutting out the opposition has been a core part of the home side’s defensive identity this season.
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in exactly 50% of their league fixtures, highlighting a high level of organization.
While defensively solid, the home side carries a notable trend for disciplinary interruptions.
Stadio Olimpico gets another proper edge-of-the-seat one on its hands as Lazio host Fiorentina in the 19th round of Serie A. Fiorentina arrive fresh off a dramatic win over Cremonese, and they’re chasing a fourth straight league victory in this fixture.
There’s bite in the backdrop, too. Lazio come into it having failed to score in their last two league games at home, with Sunday’s defeat against Napoli described as heated. Add in the fact they lost last season’s corresponding match 2-1, plus a recent head-to-head run that has leaned Fiorentina’s way, and you’ve got the ingredients for a game that can turn on a single swing of momentum.
It’s also a meeting of two sides who look comfortable doing different things. Lazio lean into short passes, through balls, and an attacking bias down the right. Fiorentina lean into possession football with crosses and through balls, and a preference for working through the middle and down the left. Put those ideas in the same stadium and you usually get a match decided by who controls the wide zones, who times their runs, and who keeps their head when the tempo spikes.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Lazio’s possible XI reads: Provedel; Lazzari, Gila, Romagnoli, Pellegrini; Guendouzi, Cataldi, Basic; Isaksen, Pedro, Zaccagni.
That looks like a front three built for constant rotation: Pedro and Zaccagni drifting into pockets, Isaksen stretching the right side, and a midfield that can pass but also bite. Guendouzi brings edge and ball-winning, Cataldi brings circulation, and Basic brings legs and forward intent. Behind them, Gila and Romagnoli shape the centre, with Lazzari and Pellegrini providing the width.
There’s also a clear absence flag in the squad notes: Boulaye Dia is listed as called up to a national team, and Fisayo Dele-Bashiru is listed the same way. Sergej Gigot is listed out after ankle surgery until 31.01.2026, and P. Gabarrón Gil is listed with muscular problems. That matters for depth and for how much Lazio can change the feel of the match if it gets away from their first plan.
Fiorentina’s possible XI is: De Gea; Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Ranieri; Mandragora, Fagioli; Parisi, Ndour, Gudmundsson; Kean.
That reads like a side built to move the ball and commit men into the second line, but with real personalities in the spine. Mandragora and Fagioli give them ball control and passing rhythm, Gudmundsson gives them a connector between midfield and the striker, and Kean gives them a direct outlet who lives off volume and chaos as much as clean service. Parisi and Dodo offer width from deeper areas, and the back line has aerial presence in places, even though Fiorentina’s own profile lists aerial duels as a weakness.
How the Match Could Be Played
Lazio’s habits point the game towards their right side. They attack down the right, attempt through balls often, and keep the ball with short passing. That means you’re likely to see Isaksen high and wide early, trying to pin Fiorentina’s left side and force the away back line to shift across. When Lazio get that shift, Pedro becomes the problem. He can appear between lines and turn a simple sideways pass into a forward punch.
The key for Lazio is speed of decision, not just speed of running. Their weaknesses include stopping opponents from creating chances and defending against through balls, and Fiorentina are built to try that exact route: through balls often, attack through the middle, and a possession game that tries to draw you into the wrong pressing step. If Lazio over-commit to the ball and lose their spacing behind Guendouzi and Cataldi, Fiorentina can slide Gudmundsson into the half-spaces and ask the centre-backs to run towards their own goal.
Fiorentina also bring a big set-piece storyline into this. They’re very strong at shooting from direct free kicks and strong at attacking set pieces. Lazio, meanwhile, are labelled aggressive and comfortable protecting the lead. That combination creates a very specific match state: Lazio will want to get in front and manage the night, but Fiorentina have routes back into the game without needing long spells of open-play dominance. One needless foul in a dangerous area and the script flips.
When Fiorentina have the ball, their style points to crosses and left-sided pressure. If Parisi is used high in the attacking line and Ranieri supports behind, they can overload Lazio’s right defensive channel and force Lazzari into repeated recovery runs. That’s where Zaccagni’s role becomes huge for Lazio: not just as an attacker, but as the first helper in the wide defensive phase. If he tracks, Lazio can keep their back four intact. If he doesn’t, Fiorentina get deliveries and cutbacks, and Lazio end up defending their box under stress.
Transitions should be lively because both teams live with risk. Lazio are described as playing in their own half at times, yet also aggressive, and Fiorentina’s weaknesses include protecting the lead (very weak) and stopping opponents from creating chances (very weak). That means neither side is naturally set up to kill a match stone dead once it starts swinging. If the first goal arrives, the next ten minutes become frantic: Lazio trying to manage the lead they’re labelled strong at protecting, Fiorentina trying to force chances despite a profile that calls their finishing weak.
There’s also an offside theme with Fiorentina. They’re weak at avoiding offside. That matters directly against a Lazio side that attempts through balls often and can turn the match into a sprint-and-timing contest. If Fiorentina mistime even a handful of runs, attacks die early and Lazio can reset shape without suffering prolonged pressure.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The league table adds immediate tension. Lazio sit 9th with 24 points from 18 games, while Fiorentina are 19th with 12 points from 18. That means Fiorentina arrive needing results and rhythm, not just respectable performances, and Lazio can’t afford home games drifting into frustration.
Recent results show why this one feels delicate. Lazio’s last two home league games finished 0-0 against Cremonese and 0-2 against Napoli. That’s not “nearly there”; that’s a side struggling to land punches in front of their own crowd. In their last six matches across competitions listed here, Lazio have two wins, three draws and one defeat, and one of the trends spells it out even more bluntly: only one win in their last six Serie A matches.
Fiorentina’s picture is split right down the middle. They beat Cremonese 1-0 last time out and thrashed Udinese 5-1 earlier in the run, but their away record in the listed sequence is grim: five defeats and a draw across six away matches in all competitions shown here, and a trend line that says they’ve lost their last three away matches in Serie A. That matters because this is the Olimpico: if Fiorentina don’t find a way to be brave with the ball, the game becomes them trying to survive waves.
Team-level style numbers fit the tactical clash. Fiorentina take more shots per game in Serie A (13.8) than Lazio (11), and they also post higher average possession in Serie A (53.2%) than Lazio (50.7%). That means Fiorentina naturally try to play on the front foot, even if it doesn’t always translate into clean finishing. Lazio, on the other hand, keep the ball efficiently — their Serie A pass completion is 85.4% — and that means they can control rhythm without necessarily creating a mountain of chances.
The “both teams scored” profile is stark on Lazio’s side. In the listed “both scored” split, Lazio have “Yes” in only 3 of 19 matches (16%), with “No” in 16 (84%). That means Lazio matches often become tight, and it also means a first goal carries extra weight: the game can quickly become about chase-and-control rather than a wide-open exchange.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first big moment is Lazio’s right-sided punch versus Fiorentina’s left-sided intent. Lazio want Isaksen and Lazzari to push the game down that flank; Fiorentina want to attack down the left and cross often. Whoever wins that lane controls territory and the tone. If Lazio pin Fiorentina back, the Olimpico sees a calmer Lazio and a stretched Fiorentina. If Fiorentina force Lazio back, it becomes a test of Lazio’s ability to create when the pitch shrinks.
The second moment is set pieces, and it isn’t subtle. Fiorentina are strong at attacking set pieces and very strong from direct free kicks, while they’re also weak at defending set pieces. That means both boxes can become chaotic on dead balls. One clean delivery can undo 30 minutes of careful shape; one lapse in marking can rewrite the scoreline.
The third moment is finishing under pressure. Fiorentina’s profile calls their finishing weak and their ability to protect a lead very weak. If they do get in front, Lazio will smell the wobble and push the game into a spell of sustained pressure. If Fiorentina fall behind, their away record in this run means they’ve repeatedly failed to find a response on the road, and the match risks slipping away in the same familiar pattern.
What could go wrong with this read? A match like this can swing on a single red card, and both sides carry disciplinary baggage: Lazio have six red cards in 19 games listed here, while Fiorentina have two in 26. One moment of ill-discipline turns shape, roles, and territory into a different sport. And if an early goal lands from a set piece or a deflection, the planned patterns can vanish into pure emotion.
Best Bet for Lazio vs Fiorentina
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Lazio to Win
The clash at the Stadio Olimpico pits two teams moving in opposite directions away from the upper reaches of the table. Lazio enter this match sitting 9th in Serie A with 24 points, effectively doubling the 12-point tally of a Fiorentina side currently languishing in 19th. The primary justification for backing a home victory lies in the catastrophic away form of the visitors. Fiorentina have suffered five defeats in their last six road trips across all competitions and have lost three consecutive away matches in Serie A. They arrive in the capital with only a single away win in the league all season, a record that makes them extremely vulnerable against a side that traditionally dominates this specific fixture.
Lazio’s historical edge at the Olimpico against the Viola is significant. Over their last 18 meetings, the capital club has secured 10 victories, while Fiorentina has managed only five wins in total across that same span. When narrowing the focus to matches in Rome, the trend is even sharper, with Lazio winning six of the last nine encounters. While Lazio have struggled for goals in their last two home league outings—including a recent 2-0 loss to Napoli—their overall defensive structure remains far superior to that of the visitors. Lazio have recorded nine clean sheets in 18 league matches this season, representing a 50% shutout rate.
Tactically, Lazio’s aggression and ability to protect a lead contrast sharply with Fiorentina’s “very weak” rating for protecting an advantage. Furthermore, Fiorentina struggle significantly with defensive set pieces, an area where Lazio can capitalize through the delivery of players like Cataldi. The absence of Boulaye Dia and Fisayo Dele-Bashiru due to national team commitments is a blow to Lazio’s depth, but the likely front three of Isaksen, Pedro, and Zaccagni possesses enough technical quality to exploit a Fiorentina defense that has conceded 28 goals already this term. Given that the visitors are also weak at avoiding offsides and stopping through balls, Lazio’s preference for vertical passes into the channels should create enough high-quality chances to secure the three points.
What could go wrong?
The primary risk to a Lazio victory is their own occasional lack of discipline, having picked up six red cards in 19 games. If they are reduced to ten men early, their ability to control the rhythm will vanish. Additionally, Fiorentina possess a significant threat from direct free kicks and attacking set pieces, which allows them to score even when they are being outplayed in open play.
Correct score lean: 1-0
Lazio have been involved in low-scoring affairs recently, with their last eight matches all featuring under 2.5 goals. Their defensive strategy is highly effective, leading to a clean sheet in 50% of their league games this season. Conversely, Fiorentina have struggled for efficiency in front of goal, particularly on their travels. Given that Lazio matches see “Both Teams to Score: No” in 84% of their fixtures (16 out of 19), a narrow shutout victory is the most probable outcome. A 1-0 win reflects Lazio’s strength in protecting leads and Fiorentina’s historical struggle to find the net at the Olimpico.
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