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Will Napoli overcome their away day blues to keep the pressure on the Milan clubs at the top of the table? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Napoli are superior in ball possession (57.4%) and pass accuracy (86.3%). Antonio Conte’s side showed resilience in their 2-1 win over Fiorentina and have a point to prove. Genoa’s weakness in defending against skillful players and through balls should allow Napoli’s high-quality midfield to dictate play.
Read Rationale ▾
Napoli recently beat Fiorentina 2-1 and have a similar scoring average to Genoa. However, Genoa are very strong at coming back from losing positions and attacking set pieces. Given Napoli’s defensive lapses on the road, a closely fought 2-1 away win for the Partenopei aligns with tactical trends.
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Now long-shot outsiders to retain the Scudetto, Napoli will try to keep the pressure on Serie A’s top two by beating Genoa on Saturday evening.
Genoa vs Napoli — William Hill Market Snapshot
Key Serie A match analytics and sample William Hill market prices based on current form.
Napoli’s 57.4% possession mastery suggests they will dictate the tempo, making them favourites despite Genoa’s home advantage at the Marassi.
Napoli’s clinical 86.3% passing and Genoa’s focus on defensive organization point toward the “Under” being a significant runner here.
Genoa’s 1.27 goals scored per game and Napoli’s 1.34 average suggest a single goal might decide this Saturday’s fixture.
Napoli’s 57.4% average possession compared to Genoa’s 46.6% indicates Antonio Conte’s side will spend most of the match with the ball.
Match Preview
- Away Day Blues: Napoli are struggling for consistency outside of Naples, having lost half of their 16 away games across all competitions this season.
- Set-Piece Specialists: Genoa are dangerous when the ball stops; they are ranked as very strong at attacking set-pieces and shooting from direct free kicks.
- Passing Perfection: Antonio Conte has his side humming on the ball, with Napoli averaging a clinical 86.3% pass accuracy and 57.4% possession in Serie A.
Match Control: Average Possession
Possession statistics highlight Napoli’s technical dominance under Antonio Conte, while Genoa prefer to operate on the counter.
Napoli’s short-passing style allows them to control games and pin opponents into their own half.
Genoa are comfortable without the ball, focusing on defensive structure and set-piece opportunities.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Game
Napoli maintain consistent pressure, utilizing their superior possession to generate high shot volumes.
Genoa are more selective, often relying on set pieces and crosses to create their danger.
The Marassi plays host to a pivotal Serie A clash this Saturday as Napoli visit Genoa. Antonio Conte’s men are currently long-shot outsiders to retain their Scudetto, trailing both Milan clubs, but a win here could move them within a single point of second place. The Partenopei steadied the ship with a 2-1 win over Fiorentina last weekend, but they are now glancing over their shoulders in a fierce race for Champions League qualification.
Genoa, managed by Daniele De Rossi, have unfinished business after a recent narrow defeat to Lazio. However, the Grifone have climbed closer to safety recently and have proven they can be a thorn in the side of the elite, having already held AC Milan to a draw this year. With safe passage away from the drop zone in sight, the hosts will be desperate to exploit Napoli’s travel sickness.
Team News & Probable Lineups
- Genoa: De Rossi is likely to stick with a 3-5-2 setup. Vitinha and Lorenzo Colombo lead the line, supported by the creative Ruslan Malinovskyi in midfield.
- Napoli: Conte faces a ruinous injury list but welcomes back local hero Antonio Vergara, who has scored in two consecutive games. Rasmus Hojlund is expected to spearhead the attack.
Probable Lineups:
Genoa: Bijlow; Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vasquez; Norton-Cuffy, Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Ellertsson, Martin; Vitinha, Colombo
Napoli: Meret; Rrahmani, Jesus, Buongiorno; Gutierrez, Lobotka, McTominay, Spinazzola; Vergara, Elmas; Hojlund
The absence of key defensive depth for Napoli leaves them vulnerable against through-ball attacks, a primary strength of this Genoa side.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Genoa | Napoli |
|---|---|---|
| Avg Goals Scored | 1.27 | 1.34 |
| Avg Possession | 46.6% | 57.4% DOMINANT |
| Pass Accuracy | 79.1% | 86.3% |
| Avg Shots PG | 11.3 | 13.2 |
The numbers suggest Napoli will dominate the ball and territory. However, Genoa’s efficiency in front of goal is nearly equal to the champions, despite having significantly less of the ball.
Tactical Battle
The Possession Wall vs. The Grifone Counter
Napoli will undoubtedly control the tempo. Conte’s side thrives on possession football and short passing, looking to overload the right flank. With Scott McTominay and Stanislav Lobotka orchestrating from deep, they will look to pin Genoa into their own half for long periods.
Genoa’s Aerial Edge
Daniele De Rossi’s men are happy to play without the ball. They are ranked as strong at stealing possession and will look to trigger quick transitions. Genoa’s biggest mismatch lies in the air; Morten Thorsby (3.9 aerials won) and Leo Østigård (3.2) provide a massive threat against a Napoli side that can be timid in defensive duels.
Vergara’s Space
Napoli’s primary route to goal will be through Antonio Vergara. Genoa are weak at defending against skillful players and long shots. If Malinovskyi and Frendrup fail to track Vergara’s runs between the lines, the local lad could punish them from the edge of the box.
Key Moments to Watch
- The Dead Ball: If Genoa win a free kick within 30 yards, keep your eyes on Malinovskyi. Genoa’s shooting from direct free kicks is a major swing factor that can bypass Napoli’s structured defense.
- Fatigue & Rotation: Napoli have had a grueling schedule including European fixtures. If the game is level at 70 minutes, Genoa’s freshness could play a role.
What Could Go Wrong?
Volatility usually stems from Napoli’s defensive lapses on the road. Despite their ball dominance, they have a “weak” rating for defending against through balls. One individual error from the back three could allow Lorenzo Colombo a clear run at goal, potentially forcing Napoli to chase a game they are statistically likely to dominate.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
The 1X2 market is the standard for football. ‘1’ represents a home win, ‘X’ a draw, and ‘2’ an away win. Pros: Straightforward and high liquidity. Cons: Highly sensitive to late tactical changes and game-state volatility.
Correct Score
This requires predicting the exact final scoreline. Pros: Offers higher prices due to its difficulty. Cons: Extremely volatile; one individual error in injury time can nullify the entire wager.
⚔️ Pick 1: Napoli to Win
Napoli enter this fixture with a clear technical advantage, evidenced by their 57.4% ball possession and superior 86.3% pass accuracy. Antonio Conte has instilled a disciplined possession-based system that focuses on short passing and controlling the game in the opposition’s half. Despite their struggles on the road, where they have lost half of their away fixtures, the recent 2-1 victory over Fiorentina has provided the necessary momentum to steady their Champions League qualification bid. With Genoa ranked as weak in keeping possession, Napoli are likely to dominate the middle of the pitch and force the hosts into a defensive shell.
Tactical Indicators:
- Napoli average 13.2 shots per game compared to Genoa’s 11.3.
- Genoa are weak at defending against skillful players and through-ball attacks.
- Napoli boast a clinical 86.3% pass accuracy, enabling sustained territorial pressure.
Genoa’s primary vulnerabilities lie in defending against wing attacks and skillful individuals, areas where Napoli’s creative midfield can thrive. While Daniele De Rossi’s side is aggressive and strong at stealing the ball, their low 46.6% possession average suggests they will struggle to relieve pressure. Napoli’s ability to protect a lead is rated as strong, meaning if Conte’s men strike first, they are statistically equipped to see out the result.
Risk Factor: Napoli’s dismal away form remains the primary concern, having struggled for consistency outside of the Stadio Maradona throughout the campaign.
🎯 Pick 2: Napoli 2-1 Genoa
A 2-1 scoreline for the visitors is plausible given the goal-scoring averages of both sides. Napoli average 1.34 goals per game in Serie A, while Genoa are nearly as efficient at 1.27. However, Genoa’s defensive lapses—averaging 1.5 goals conceded per match—provide Napoli with the opportunities needed to find the net multiple times. The hosts are very strong at coming back from losing positions and attacking set pieces, which suggests they are likely to contribute to the scoreline even if Napoli control the majority of the ball.
Genoa’s style involves frequent crossing and wide play, and they are noted for their aggression. This could lead to a physical encounter where Genoa exploit Napoli’s weakness against high-ball situations. However, Napoli’s finishing and strong defending against set pieces should give them the edge in a tight game. A narrow 2-1 away win mirrors Napoli’s recent domestic success and reflects the competitive nature of the matchup at the Stadio Luigi Ferraris.
Risk Factor: Genoa’s strength in shooting from direct free kicks and direct set-piece attacks could easily turn a 2-1 Napoli win into a higher-scoring draw.
❓ Interactive Q&A
⊕ How does Napoli’s away form impact the betting logic?
Napoli have lost half of their 16 away games across all competitions. This makes them less certain on the road than their league position might suggest, despite their technical superiority in possession and passing stats.
⊕ What are Genoa’s main tactical strengths?
Genoa are very strong at attacking set pieces and shooting from direct free kicks. They also excel at coming back from losing positions, making them a high-resilience side in competitive fixtures.
⊕ What is a Correct Score market?
A Correct Score bet requires you to predict the exact final score of the match. For example, selecting 2-1 means you only win if the match ends with that specific result.
⊕ Why does Napoli dominate ball possession?
Under Antonio Conte, Napoli use possession football and short passes to control the game. This strategy aims to dictate the tempo and pin the opposition in their own defensive half.
⊕ How does Genoa’s defensive weakness against through balls affect the game?
Genoa’s weakness against through balls aligns with Napoli’s strength in attempting them. This suggests Napoli will try to create scoring opportunities by playing passes behind the Genoa defensive line.
⊕ Is the match expected to be high-scoring?
With goal averages of 1.27 and 1.34 per game, both teams are consistent scorers. While the under 2.5 goals market is favoured by price, the tactical trends suggest both teams could find the net.
⊕ How has Antonio Vergara performed recently?
The local lad Antonio Vergara has been in excellent form, scoring in two consecutive games for Napoli. He is a key creative threat in the absence of other regular starters.
⊕ What role do aerial duels play in this fixture?
Genoa have players like Morten Thorsby who are strong in the air. Napoli are weak at defending against skillful players, so Genoa may use aerial tactics to bypass Napoli’s defensive organization.
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