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Can De Rossi’s streetwise streak blunt Italiano’s faltering push? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Genoa’s efficiency from set pieces and transitions clashes with Bologna’s 13.2 shots per game. While Bologna dominate possession, Genoa have scored 22 league goals and feature clinical finishers like Colombo. Given both sides’ specific defensive weaknesses against wide attacks and individual errors, both will find the net.
Read Rationale ▾
Genoa have drawn three of their last six matches, reflecting their stubborn unbeaten run. Bologna’s slump—one win in nine—suggests they lack the clinical edge to take all three points. A 1-1 draw aligns with Genoa’s defensive resilience and Bologna’s high shot volume but low conversion rate.
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Genoa vs Bologna Predictions and Best Bets
Genoa vs Bologna — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Bologna carry more possession but Genoa’s home resilience makes for a tight pricing spread in the 1X2 market.
Stats suggest a highly competitive match with significant probability for both teams finding the back of the net.
- Clean-sheet chase: Genoa have kept back-to-back league clean sheets for the first time this season and now push for a third straight shutout, after 3-0 v Cagliari and 0-0 at Parma.
- Bologna still create, even in a wobble: Bologna have hit 30 league goals in 21 matches while averaging 13.2 shots per game — they’re not shot-shy, they’ve just been inconsistent across the last nine.
- Styles clash in one line: Genoa sit on 46.6% possession and 11.2 shots per game, while Bologna run 55.5% possession and 13.2 shots per game — expect Bologna to have more of the ball, and Genoa to choose their moments.
Attacking Intensity: Shots per League Game
Bologna maintain a high volume of attempts as they seek control, while Genoa operate with a more selective, counter-focused shot profile.
Bologna continue to test opposition goalkeepers frequently, despite a recent downturn in scoring rhythm.
Genoa choose their moments carefully, prioritizing defensive stability and high-impact transitions.
Match Control: Average Ball Possession
The tactical contrast is stark: Bologna demand the ball to build pressure, while Genoa are content to defend without it.
Bologna’s system is built on ball retention and territorial dominance, regardless of the venue.
Genoa focus on mid-block stability and technical accuracy in passing (78.8%) rather than sheer volume of play.
Stadio Luigi Ferraris has a proper edge to it when Genoa sense blood, and they’ll fancy this one. Unbeaten in four Serie A matches, Daniele De Rossi’s side have climbed to 16th on 20 points, three clear of 18th, and they’re suddenly carrying themselves like a team with a plan.
Bologna arrive higher in the table — 8th on 30 points — but the mood has dipped. One win in nine has dragged their European chase into the mud, and the fixture list keeps squeezing. Genoa’s run hasn’t been about fireworks; it’s been about resilience, clean sheets, and a refusal to fold. Kick-off is 14:00, and the opening quarter-hour feels massive: Genoa want noise, Bologna want calm.
Team News & Lineups
Genoa absences
- Leo Østigård — yellow card suspension (until 26/01/2026)
- Brooke Norton-Cuffy — muscular problems (return date not listed)
- Caleb Ekuban — hamstring injury (out until 02/02/2026)
Bologna absences
- None listed
Genoa possible starting lineup
Leali; Marcandalli, Otoa, Vasquez; Norton-Cuffy, Frendrup, Malinovskyi, Ellertsson, Martin; Vitinha, Colombo
Bologna possible starting lineup
Ravaglia; Holm, Casale, Heggem, Lykogiannis; Freuler, Ferguson; Orsolini, Odgaard, Cambiaghi; Dallinga
Lineup implications (quick hit):
- Genoa missing Østigård matters: he’s been a threat at both ends with 4 league goals, and his aerial presence (3.3 aerials won) gives Genoa a direct outlet.
- There’s a clash in Genoa’s own “possible XI” too: Norton-Cuffy appears despite being listed with muscular problems. If he can’t go, Genoa lose pace on the flank and a key runner for transitions.
- Bologna’s front line has options for movement and goals: Riccardo Orsolini leads the league scoring chart for them with 7, and Santiago Castro has 6 — even if Dallinga starts, there’s pressure on Genoa’s back three.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Serie A) | Genoa | Bologna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th | 8th |
| Points | 20 | 30 |
| Goals scored | 22 | 30 |
| Shots per game | 11.2 | 13.2 |
| Possession | 46.6% | 55.5% |
| Pass success | 78.8% | 82.5% |
| Clean sheets (all matches listed) | 5 (24 played) | 7 (29 played) |
Bologna are built to control the ball and keep the pitch tilted, and their passing numbers back it up. Genoa are more about the hit: less possession, fewer shots, and a match plan that lives off duels, set pieces, and bursts. If Bologna dominate territory without cutting clean openings, Genoa will feel right at home.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Genoa: aggressive without the ball, direct when it counts
De Rossi’s Genoa are comfortable doing their work in their own half, then springing forward with intent. Their best traits scream “moments”: they’re very strong at stealing the ball and very strong from direct free kicks, and they like width with a tilt down the left.
That points you straight to Ruslan Malinovskyi and Aarón Martín. Malinovskyi has 2 goals and 3 assists; Martín has 4 assists and a strong rating (7.03). If Genoa can win fouls in shooting range, or steal it in midfield and play early, they’ll look for Lorenzo Colombo — their top league scorer with 5 — to finish moves quickly.
The danger? Genoa’s weaknesses are loud: very weak at protecting the lead, very weak defending attacks down the wings, and weak against through balls. If Genoa score first, the next 20 minutes becomes a test of nerve.
Bologna: possession, width, and shots — but with a soft underbelly
Bologna’s style leans into long balls and crosses while still being a possession side, playing with width and attacking down the left. In simple terms: they want the ball, they want runners, and they want volume. Their 13.2 shots per game in the league says they’ll keep asking questions.
Where can Genoa hurt them? Bologna are weak at defending against skillful players, avoiding individual errors, and aerial duels. That last one is interesting with Østigård missing, but Genoa can still stress Bologna with set pieces and aggressive second-ball play. If Bologna’s back line gets dragged into a physical match, their shape can wobble.
The key duel: Bologna’s wing threat vs Genoa’s wing vulnerability
Genoa’s “very weak” tag against wide attacks is the kind of red flag opponents circle. Bologna’s wing strengths, plus Orsolini’s goal threat and the service from wide, makes that the obvious battleground. Genoa have to defend the width first — then pick the moment to strike.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and shooting range: Genoa’s direct free-kick strength gives every foul around the box extra danger. One clumsy challenge can swing the whole afternoon.
- Wide delivery and second balls: Bologna’s crossing habits meet Genoa’s wing issues. Watch how often Bologna isolate the wing-backs and force last-ditch defending.
- Game state pressure: Genoa have been drawing a lot — three draws in their last six — and Bologna have lost three of their last six across all competitions listed. Who stays patient when the first goal doesn’t come?
What could go wrong?
If Genoa sit too deep and keep coughing up wide territory, Bologna’s shot volume can turn into an ugly siege. But if Bologna get loose in possession and invite steals, Genoa’s transition game can bite fast — and with Genoa’s issues protecting a lead, even a good start can turn frantic in a hurry.
Best Bet for Genoa vs Bologna
How will De Rossi’s resilience handle the high-volume Bologna attack?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack | Genoa 22 goals; BOL 30 goals | Back BTTS |
| Shot Rate | BOL 13.2/gm; Genoa 11.2/gm | Over 1.5 Goals |
| Form | Genoa 4 unbeaten; BOL 1 win in 9 | Genoa Double Chance |
| Ball Control | BOL 55.5% possession; Genoa 46.6% | Away Lead Market |
Both Teams to Score (Yes)
Genoa are currently enjoying a four-match unbeaten run, characterized by a pragmatic resilience that has moved them clear of the drop zone. Daniele De Rossi has transformed the side into a clinical transition outfit. They do not require the ball to be dangerous, as evidenced by their 46.6% possession rate, but they excel in dead-ball situations and direct strikes. Ruslan Malinovskyi and Aarón Martín are the primary architects of this threat, providing high-quality delivery for Lorenzo Colombo.
Bologna arrive as a statistical contradiction. They control 55.5% of the ball and record 13.2 shots per game, yet they have only secured one victory in their last nine attempts. This high shot volume ensures they are constantly putting pressure on the opposition goal. With Riccardo Orsolini leading the scoring with 7 goals, they have the personnel to break any defensive block. However, their defensive metrics show a vulnerability to skillful individuals and errors under pressure.
The tactical battleground favors goals for both sides. Genoa are very weak at defending attacks down the wings and crosses. Bologna’s entire offensive strategy revolves around width and delivery from the left, which creates a direct conflict with Genoa’s defensive flaws. Conversely, Genoa’s strength from direct free kicks and their ability to steal the ball in midfield means they will exploit Bologna’s tendency for individual errors. Despite Genoa’s recent clean sheets, the absence of Leo Østigård removes their best aerial defender, making them more susceptible to Bologna’s crossing game. Both teams possess the specific tools to punish the other’s identified weaknesses.
What could go wrong? If Genoa prioritize their recent defensive trend and sit in a deep low block for 90 minutes, they could stifle Bologna’s creative runners entirely. Bologna have also shown a lack of clinical finishing during their slump, so high shot volume does not always equate to goals. A 0-0 or 1-0 result is possible if Genoa’s back three remains perfectly disciplined.
Correct Score Lean
Genoa 1-1 Bologna
Genoa have drawn three of their last six matches, highlighting their tendency to keep games competitive but locked. Bologna’s high shot frequency (13.2 per game) suggests they will eventually find a breakthrough, especially against a Genoa side that is weak against wide delivery. However, Genoa’s efficiency at home and Bologna’s poor win rate (one in nine) mean neither side has the momentum to pull away. A 1-1 stalemate reflects the balance between Bologna’s possession dominance and Genoa’s ability to score from limited opportunities.
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