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Can Fiorentina find their survival spark against a stuttering Torino? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Fiorentina are desperate for points to climb out of the bottom three. Facing a Torino side that recently conceded six against Como, the Viola’s high volume of through balls and attacking focus should exploit the visitors’ defensive vulnerabilities and lack of a settled backline at the Franchi.
Read Rationale ▾
Both teams struggle to keep clean sheets, with Fiorentina having only three all season. A 2-1 result is plausible as Torino are strong on the counter-attack and through aerial duels, likely finding the net, but Fiorentina’s superior possession and home urgency should eventually secure a narrow victory.
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The lights go up at the Stadio Artemio Franchi for a Saturday night fixture defined by desperation. Fiorentina are currently mired in the bottom three, one point adrift of safety after a grueling run of three straight defeats.
Fiorentina vs Torino — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Fiorentina’s 53% possession average suggests they will control the tempo, making them favourites despite their recent grim form.
With Fiorentina conceding 1.44 goals per game and keeping only three clean sheets, Over 2.5 goals looks statistically plausible.
Fiorentina dominate shots (13.8 per game) while Torino struggle away, pointing towards narrow scorelines in the Viola’s favour.
Fiorentina’s three clean sheets all season suggest both teams to score is highly likely at the Franchi.
Match Preview
Torino, meanwhile, arrive in Florence following a dispiriting week that saw them dumped out of the Coppa Italia by Inter. While they sit higher in the table, a 6-0 thrashing at the hands of Como in late January exposed massive defensive frailties. Both sides are in “grim form,” making this a high-stakes encounter where the loser could face a terminal slide down the standings.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Game
Fiorentina’s high shot volume reflects their dominance in possession, while Torino maintain a steady output despite a lower ball retention rate.
A high volume of attempts from Vanoli’s side highlights their tendency to attack through the middle and look for through balls.
Torino rely on counter-attacks and long balls, maintaining a respectable shot rate despite averaging less possession.
Defensive Reliability: Season Clean Sheets
A comparison of how often both defences have successfully prevented opponents from scoring throughout the campaign.
With only three shutouts, keeping clean sheets has been a primary struggle for the Viola during their battle for survival.
Despite shipping plenty of goals in individual games, Torino have shut out opponents three times as often as Fiorentina.
Key Stats
- Leaky Foundations: Fiorentina have managed the fewest clean sheets in Serie A this season with just three, a worrying trend for a side battling relegation.
- Stadio Franchi Struggles: The Viola have found life difficult on their own pitch, securing only two victories from 11 league matches at home this term.
- Travel Sickness: Torino’s away form has been poor lately, with the visitors managing to win only three of their last 16 league games on the road.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Fiorentina are likely to lean on Moise Kean to lead the line, supported by the creative duo of Manor Solomon and Albert Gudmundsson. Torino will be without several key figures who featured in their cup exit, but Duvan Zapata and Che Adams are expected to spearhead the attack.
Probable Fiorentina Lineup
De Gea; Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens; Fagioli; Solomon, Mandragora, Brescianini, Gudmundsson; Kean.
Probable Torino Lineup
Paleari; Marianucci, Maripan, Coco; Pedersen, Casadei, Ilkhan, Anjorin, Lazaro; Adams, Zapata.
The absence of a settled backline for the visitors could be their undoing, especially against a Fiorentina side that attempts a high volume of through balls.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Avg Per Game) | Fiorentina | Torino |
|---|---|---|
| Goals Scored | 1.25 CLINICAL | 1.04 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.44 | 1.63 |
| Possession % | 53% | 45% |
| Shots Per Game | 13.8 | 12.1 |
Fiorentina dominate the ball more than their visitors, but as the goals conceded column suggests, neither side is particularly adept at shutting the shop once the pressure mounts.
Tactical Battle
Expect Fiorentina to dictate the tempo from the first whistle. Paolo Vanoli’s side favors attacking through the middle, utilizing the vision of Nicolo Fagioli and Rolando Mandragora to slip through balls into the path of Moise Kean. Their 53% average possession suggests they will look to pin Torino back, but their “very weak” rating in stopping opponents from creating chances means they are always one pass away from disaster.
Torino are set up perfectly to punish that lack of defensive discipline. Marco Baroni’s side is “very strong” on the counter-attack and will likely surrender the ball to exploit the spaces behind Fiorentina’s high line. With Cesare Casadei dominating the air (3.7 aerials won per game), the visitors will look to turn every set-piece and long ball into a chaotic scramble in the Viola box.
The mismatch lies in Fiorentina’s “very weak” aerial defense going up against a Torino side that is statistically strong in the air. If the visitors can weather the early storm, they will look to utilize the pace of Che Adams to catch a Fiorentina defense that has a habit of failing to protect leads.
Key Moments to Watch
- The opening 15 minutes of the second half will be critical.
- Both teams have shown a “weak” ability to protect leads this season, meaning an early goal for either side is unlikely to kill the game.
- Keep an eye on the battle between Manor Solomon and Torino’s wing-backs; if Solomon can find space out wide, Fiorentina’s tendency to attempt crosses could finally pay dividends.
What Could Go Wrong?
Volatility is the name of the game here. Fiorentina are rated “very weak” at avoiding individual errors and defending against long shots. If Torino get desperate and start firing from range, a goalkeeping error or a deflected strike could turn a tactical chess match into a chaotic scramble for points.
Match Result
The Match Result market involves predicting whether the final outcome will be a home win, an away win, or a draw. This is the most straightforward market, offering clear entry for those analyzing team momentum and tactical advantages. Pros include high liquidity and simplicity, though it doesn’t offer protection against a draw unless combined with other markets.
Correct Score
The Correct Score market requires predicting the exact final scoreline. This is a high-risk, high-reward market due to the precision required. Pros include significantly higher prices than the standard result market, while the cons involve extreme volatility, as a single late goal can void the selection regardless of the match flow.
📊 Tactical Analysis & Rationale
🎯 Pick 1: Fiorentina to Win
Fiorentina find themselves in a desperate fight for survival, currently sitting in the relegation zone. Despite a run of three straight defeats, including a narrow 2-1 loss to champions Napoli, there are tactical reasons to believe they can secure a vital victory at the Stadio Artemio Franchi. The Viola dominate possession, averaging 53% per game, and generate a high volume of chances with 13.8 shots per match. Facing a Torino side that has sunk down the standings and recently suffered a 6-0 thrashing by Como, Fiorentina’s urgency should be the deciding factor.
Tactical Indicators:
- Fiorentina’s 53% possession average allows them to dictate the game’s tempo.
- Torino have won only three of their last 16 away league fixtures.
- The visitors’ backline remains unsettled following a heavy defeat to Como.
Risk Factor: Fiorentina have only secured two home wins from 11 attempts this season and struggle to keep clean sheets.
🎯 Pick 2: Fiorentina 2-1 Torino
A 2-1 scoreline aligns with the statistical defensive vulnerabilities of both sides. Fiorentina have managed a league-low three clean sheets this season, making it highly probable that Torino will find the net. Torino are “very strong” on the counter-attack and possess a significant aerial threat through Cesare Casadei, who averages 3.7 aerial wins per game. This height advantage is a direct mismatch for Fiorentina’s “very weak” aerial defence.
However, the Viola’s attacking patterns—favouring through balls into Moise Kean—are well-suited to exploit a Torino defence that has conceded 1.63 goals per game on average. Given that four of Fiorentina’s last six home games have seen over 2.5 goals, a narrow 2-1 victory reflects the predicted game state of high home pressure meeting effective away counters.
Shots/Game
FIO Clean Sheets
Risk Factor: Torino’s aerial dominance could lead to set-piece goals that disrupt the predicted scoreline.
⚔️ Match Q&A
⊕ What does the Match Result market mean?
The Match Result market is a bet on the final outcome of the game: home win, draw, or away win. It is the most common football market, often referred to as 1X2.
⊕ Why is Fiorentina’s home form a concern?
Fiorentina have won just two of their 11 home league matches this season. This poor record at the Franchi is a primary reason they are currently in the bottom three.
⊕ How does the Correct Score market work?
The Correct Score market involves predicting the exact final score of the match. It offers higher odds than simple win bets because of the difficulty in getting the exact number of goals right for both teams.
⊕ What is Torino’s main tactical strength?
Torino are very strong on the counter-attack and in aerial duels. They will likely look to exploit Fiorentina’s weaknesses in defending headers and high lines.
⊕ Are there many clean sheets expected in this game?
No, both teams struggle defensively. Fiorentina have kept only three clean sheets this season, and Torino’s defence was recently breached six times in a single match.
⊕ What role does possession play for Fiorentina?
Fiorentina average 53% possession, indicating they like to control the ball. They use this control to create chances through the middle with through balls.
⊕ Why is Cesare Casadei a player to watch for Torino?
Casadei is Torino’s dominant aerial force, winning 3.7 duels per game. He is a major threat during set-pieces against a Fiorentina side that is weak in the air.
⊕ What is the significance of the 19:45 kickoff?
The 19:45 kickoff marks a Saturday night prime-time slot in Serie A. It often leads to high-intensity atmospheres, particularly for a relegation battle at the Stadio Franchi.
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