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Can Fiorentina finally turn survival pressure into points against a stubborn Pisa side? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Fiorentina have seen both teams score in their last seven league matches, highlighting a persistent defensive vulnerability. While Paolo Vanoli’s side has momentum from consecutive wins, they remain porous. Pisa’s strong aerial presence offers a direct scoring route against a Viola defence that is historically weak in the air.
Read Rationale ▾
Fiorentina’s superior shot volume and technical quality should see them through, but their inability to keep clean sheets makes a 2-1 result plausible. Pisa are weak at converting chances but dominant in aerial duels, suggesting they can snatch a goal from a set piece or cross before succumbing.
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Tuscan rivals collide in a relegation six-pointer at the Franchi, where defensive anxiety meets a clash of styles.
Fiorentina vs Pisa — William Hill Snapshot
Swipe through key markets based on our match analysis.
Fiorentina’s 52.1% possession and recent consecutive wins make them clear favourites against a Pisa side winless in 24 games.
Fiorentina’s record of conceding in seven straight league games makes a higher-scoring encounter likely in this Tuscan derby.
Fiorentina average 1.16 goals per game while Pisa concede 1.68, suggesting a narrow home victory is the tactical probability.
Fiorentina’s 52.1% possession vs Pisa’s 40.0% suggests the Viola will control the tempo and territory throughout the ninety minutes.
- Defensive Anxiety: Fiorentina have managed just one clean sheet in their last 20 league matches, so even with momentum building, control without chaos remains the big test.
- Two Teams, One Problem: Fiorentina sit 18th on 21 points and Pisa are 19th on 15 points after 25 games — a night where one mistake can drag you under.
- Style Clash in Numbers: Fiorentina average 13.8 shots per game with 52.1% possession, while Pisa sit at 10.3 shots and 40.0% possession — expect territory one way, resistance the other.
Offensive Volume: Average Shots per Match
Fiorentina’s aggressive style leads to high shot volume, while Pisa focus on direct moments from deep positions.
Fiorentina’s tendency to attack through the middle and via crosses ensures a high number of attempts at home.
Pisa’s direct approach and long passes lead to fewer but often physically contested scoring chances.
Ball Retention: Passing Accuracy Comparisons
Technical control vs direct distribution determines the rhythm of this Tuscan encounter.
With 52.1% possession, Fiorentina use precise combinations to pin opponents into their own half.
Pisa’s reliance on long passes and crossing results in a lower accuracy but keeps play in the opposition third.
Match Preview
Stadio Artemio Franchi, 17:30, and the kind of fixture that makes your stomach tighten before a ball is even kicked. Fiorentina and Pisa go again in a Tuscan derby that feels less like tradition and more like pure survival.
Paolo Vanoli has nudged Fiorentina into life with consecutive wins — including a 3-0 away success at Jagiellonia Bialystok — but the league table doesn’t care about vibes. The Viola are three points adrift of safety with 13 games remaining, and that long-running habit of conceding makes every lead feel temporary.
For Oscar Hiljemark and Pisa, the outlook is grim — 19th, winless in 24 of 25 league matches — yet their away record shows they can cling on. This is a six-pointer with sharp edges.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries and Absences
Fiorentina: David de Gea (finger injury), Albert Gudmundsson (ankle problems), Tariq Lamptey (cruciate ligament injury, out until 01/03/2026)
Probable Lineups
Fiorentina (possible XI):
De Gea; Dodo, Comuzzo, Ranieri, Gosens; Fagioli, Ndour; Harrison, Brescianini, Solomon; Kean
Pisa (possible XI):
Nicolas; Canestrelli, Caracciolo, Bozhinov; Toure, Loyola, Aebischer, Angori; Tramoni, Moreo; Stojilkovic
What it means
- If De Gea can’t go, that’s a massive emotional shift at the back — Fiorentina’s biggest issue has been stability, and they’ve already struggled to protect leads.
- Pisa’s shape hints at a compact block with outlets. With Stefano Moreo and Mattéo Tramoni in support, they’ll look to turn scraps into moments.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Serie A unless stated) | Fiorentina | Pisa |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th | 19th |
| Points (GP) | 21 (25) | 15 (25) |
| Goals For / Against | 29 / 39 | 20 / 42 |
| Shots per game | 13.8 | 10.3 |
| Possession % | 52.1% | 40.0% |
| Pass accuracy % | 84.3% | 76.0% |
| Clean sheets (all comps listed) | 7 (35 games) | 6 (27 games) |
Fiorentina should have the ball, the territory, and the shot volume. Pisa should have the air — they’re very strong in aerial duels — and the patience to sit in their half and make this ugly. The key question: can Fiorentina turn possession into clean chances without leaving the back door open?
Tactical Battle
Fiorentina’s plan: play through pressure, but don’t overheat
Vanoli’s Fiorentina want to attack through the middle, attempt through balls, and cross often. That’s an aggressive mix, and it can look brilliant when it clicks — quick combinations, runners arriving, and bodies filling the box.
But there’s a sting in the tail: Fiorentina are weak at finishing scoring chances, and their defensive profile screams vulnerability — very weak against through balls, long shots, and stopping opponents from creating chances. That combo creates a familiar danger: push too many numbers forward, fail to land the punch, then get hit clean.
If Nicolò Fagioli and Cher Ndour keep the passing crisp, Fiorentina can pin Pisa back and force repeated defensive actions. The wide threats matter too — Dodô and Robin Gosens can stretch Pisa’s line and turn a low block into a series of last-ditch clearances. And in the final third, Fiorentina’s clearest route to the net is giving Moise Kean volume. He’s their top league scorer on 7 — the one player in this match who looks built to turn half-chances into shots.
Pisa’s response: surrender the ball, win the moments
Pisa’s identity is almost the mirror image. They’re weak at keeping possession, they play in their own half, and they use long passes with an emphasis on crossing — especially attacking down the right. That’s not about pretty patterns; it’s about forcing the game into duels, second balls, and uncomfortable defending.
The biggest mismatch sits in the air. Pisa are very strong in aerial duels, and Fiorentina are very weak there. If Pisa can turn throw-ins, corners, and wide deliveries into repeat pressure, they’ll believe. Idrissa Touré leads Pisa for aerials won at 5.3 per match — that’s a serious platform for knockdowns and chaos around the box.
Pisa’s problem is finishing: they’re very weak at converting chances, and their scoring rate across league games sits low. So they need volume of moments, not one perfect chance. That’s why Stefano Moreo matters — he has 5 league goals and can turn a loose ball into a proper chance, even if the build-up is messy.
Where it swings: control vs collapse
This can look one-sided for long spells — Fiorentina circulating, Pisa defending deep — but the margin is thin. Fiorentina’s recent Serie A trend has been blunt: both teams have scored in their last seven league matches. So even if Fiorentina lead, Pisa won’t feel out of it.
The biggest battle might be psychological as much as tactical: can Fiorentina keep their structure when they don’t get instant reward? Because the moment they chase, Pisa’s direct game becomes far more dangerous.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces and second balls: Pisa’s aerial strength (led by Touré 5.3 aerials won) meets Fiorentina’s weakness in the air. That’s a red-alert zone.
- Early composure: Fiorentina average 52.1% possession and 84.3% pass accuracy — if they start nervy and sloppy, Pisa’s plan gets easier fast.
- Shot volume vs shot quality: Fiorentina fire 13.8 shots per game. Pisa allow pressure — the question is whether those shots are clean looks for Kean, or hopeful efforts that invite counters.
- Discipline and disruption: Both sides rack up fouls (Fiorentina 430, Pisa 361 across the listed matches). Free-kicks and stoppages could turn the rhythm into a scrap.
What could go wrong?
For Fiorentina, it’s the familiar story: dominate the ball, miss the moment, then concede from a cross, a set piece, or a single direct pass. For Pisa, it’s the other side of the coin: defend bravely, win the duels, then waste the rare chances because the finishing doesn’t match the fight. In a relegation six-pointer, that’s how a night flips — one lapse, one loose header, one mistimed step — and suddenly the pressure is screaming.
📊 Tactical Analysis and Market Insight
Match Result & BTTS
This market requires the chosen team to win while both sides find the net. It balances the home side’s superior technical stats with their established defensive vulnerabilities.
Pros: Significantly higher odds than a straight win. Cons: Requires a clean sheet failure.
Correct Score
A high-precision market where you predict the exact final scoreline. It reflects the expected game state: home dominance met by specific tactical resistance.
Pros: High potential returns. Cons: Zero margin for error on late goals.
🎯 Pick 1: Fiorentina to Win & BTTS
Fiorentina enter this Tuscan derby with the technical advantage, averaging 13.8 shots per game and maintaining 52.1% possession. Paolo Vanoli has secured consecutive victories, providing the momentum needed to overcome a Pisa side that has struggled for wins all season. However, the Viola’s defensive profile is a significant concern; they have conceded in each of their last seven league matches and managed only one clean sheet in twenty.
Pisa, despite their 19th-place standing, possess a clear tactical route to goal. They are very strong in aerial duels, winning 5.3 per match via Idrissa Touré, which directly exploits Fiorentina’s historical weakness in the air. Given Fiorentina’s habit of conceding from crosses and set pieces, a home win without a clean sheet is the most logical outcome.
Risk Factor: Fiorentina’s inability to convert high-volume chances could lead to a frustrating draw if Kean is isolated.
🎯 Pick 2: Fiorentina 2-1 Pisa
The 2-1 scoreline aligns with the statistical trends of both teams. Fiorentina’s superior shot volume should produce multiple goals, particularly through Moise Kean, who remains their most reliable threat with seven league goals. However, Pisa’s direct style—focusing on long passes and a high crossing volume from the right—is designed to unsettle vulnerable defences.
With Pisa strong in the air and Fiorentina struggling to stop opponents from creating chances, a single goal for the visitors is highly plausible. Fiorentina’s defensive anxiety often manifests late in games, but their overall quality should be enough to secure the three points by a narrow margin.
Risk Factor: A De Gea absence could heighten defensive panic, potentially turning a narrow lead into a higher-scoring draw.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 5.3 aerial duels per match. Touré and Moreo provide a massive threat from set-pieces.
Ranked very weak in the air and conceded in 7 straight games. Vulnerable to direct delivery.
❓ Match Day Q&A
⊕What does ‘Fiorentina to Win & BTTS’ mean?
‘Fiorentina to Win & BTTS’ means Fiorentina must win and both teams must score.
In this market, your bet wins if the final result is 2-1, 3-1, 3-2, etc. It combines the match result with the ‘Both Teams to Score’ outcome for higher odds.
⊕How does the Correct Score market work?
The Correct Score market requires you to predict the exact final result.
If you back a 2-1 scoreline, the match must finish exactly 2-1 for your bet to win. This is a high-risk, high-reward market due to the low margin for error.
⊕Why is Fiorentina’s defence a major talking point?
Fiorentina have conceded in seven consecutive league matches.
Despite their technical dominance, their inability to keep clean sheets and weakness against through balls and aerial duels makes them vulnerable to any opponent.
⊕Who is the key player for Fiorentina’s attack?
Moise Kean is the leading threat for Fiorentina with seven league goals.
Given the Viola fire 13.8 shots per game, Kean is the primary target for their attacking volume through the middle and from crosses.
⊕What is Pisa’s main tactical strength?
Pisa are statistically very strong in aerial duels and direct distribution.
They win a significant number of headers (led by Touré) and use long passes to move play quickly into the opposition third, bypassing traditional build-up.
⊕Is there a ‘Double Chance’ option for this game?
Double Chance allows you to cover two of the three possible match outcomes.
Options like ‘Fiorentina and Draw’ or ‘Pisa and Draw’ offer more security but lower odds compared to backing a single result.
⊕How important are set pieces in this match?
Set pieces are critical due to the mismatch in aerial strength.
Pisa’s dominance in the air against Fiorentina’s defensive fragility at restarts makes corners and free-kicks high-probability scoring moments for the visitors.
⊕What is ‘Draw No Bet’ (DNB)?
Draw No Bet returns your stake if the match ends in a draw.
You choose a team to win, and if they succeed, you win; if they draw, your bet is voided and your money returned. It is a lower-risk alternative to the 1X2 market.
18+ | GambleAware | T&Cs apply. Set a budget, use limits, and stop when it’s not fun.
Last Odds Update: Feb 22, 12:30 GMT | Editorial Policy
