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Can Como turn cup momentum into a ruthless league statement against Fiorentina? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Como dominate territory with 62% possession and arrive chasing a fourth straight clean sheet. Fiorentina struggle away, conceding in nine straight road games and losing most. Como have already beaten them twice this season and look too structured for the visitors.
Read Rationale ▾
Como’s defence is currently impenetrable at home, while Fiorentina are very weak against through balls—Como’s specialty. With Nico Paz dictating play, a controlled 2-0 victory reflects Como’s high clean sheet volume (13) and Fiorentina’s defensive fragility on the road.
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Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia is set for a fixture with edge. Como are sixth and in the mood for something bigger — Europe is the chase.
Como vs Fiorentina — William Hill Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample William Hill odds based on our match analysis.
Como’s high possession and home form make them favorites against a Fiorentina side struggling on the road.
Fiorentina have seen both teams score in their last six matches, despite Como’s current clean sheet run.
Como’s 13 clean sheets this season suggest a shut-out victory is a strong possibility against 18th-placed Fiorentina.
Como arrive chasing a fourth straight Serie A clean sheet, highlighting their defensive stability this season.
Match Preview
Stadio Giuseppe Sinigaglia is set for a fixture with edge. Como are sixth and in the mood for something bigger — Europe is the chase, and a midweek cup high has sharpened the hunger. Cesc Fàbregas has a side that wants the ball, plays with tempo, and has started to collect clean sheets like souvenirs.
For Fiorentina in 18th, it’s raw survival. Paolo Vanoli needs points, but the margins have been cruel: goals conceded on the road, leads that won’t hold, and a defensive profile that invites danger. Como have already beaten Fiorentina in the cup and league this season. Now it’s about backing up swagger with control — and turning pressure into goals.
Defensive Reliability: Season Shutouts
Como’s control of matches is reflected in their clean sheet tally, which dwarfs that of a struggling Fiorentina unit.
Como arrive chasing a fourth straight clean sheet, having conceded just 16 goals across the entire campaign so far.
Fiorentina have conceded 38 goals this season, with their defensive profile showing specific weaknesses on the road.
Control Indicators: Possession and Passing
Como’s tactical identity is built on high ball retention and volume passing to suffocate opponents.
Como average over 547 passes per game, using high accuracy to force opponents into long spells without the ball.
While respectable on the ball, Fiorentina have managed just four wins in their last 24 away league matches.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries & Absences
Como: A. Diao Diaoune (hamstring, out until 30.04.2026), D. Santos Silva (unknown), N. Čavlina (unknown), Álvaro Morata (adductor, out until 26.02.2026).
Fiorentina: No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Como: Butez; Smolcic, Ramon, Kempf, Valle; Perrone, Da Cunha; Vojvoda, Paz, Baturina; Douvikas
Fiorentina: De Gea; Dodo, Comuzzo, Pongracic, Gosens; Fagioli; Solomon, Mandragora, Brescianini, Harrison; Kean
Quick Hits
- Como’s shape screams central control: Perrone and Da Cunha to circulate, Nico Paz to dictate, and Douvikas to finish the moves.
- The absence of Morata trims one route to goal, but it also concentrates responsibility — and Como have creators to feed a single focal point.
- Fiorentina’s selection looks built for balls into the final third through Solomon, Mandragora, and Gudmundsson-type pockets — but their own finishing has to be cleaner to survive long stretches without possession.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (Serie A) | Como | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th | 18th |
| Games played | 23 | 24 |
| Goals scored | 37 | 27 |
| Goals conceded | 16 | 38 |
| Shots per game | 14.6 | 14.1 |
| Possession | 62.2% | 52.9% |
| Pass accuracy | 87.1% | 84.5% |
| Clean sheets | 13 | 6 |
| Yellow cards | 61 | 72 |
Como’s numbers sketch a side that controls territory and limits damage. The goals-against gap is huge: 16 conceded vs 38. Fiorentina still shoot plenty, so this won’t be attack vs no attack — it’s more like who gets the clean looks, and who gets shoved into low-percentage efforts under pressure.
Tactical Battle
Como’s plan: suffocate, then slip the killer pass
Como want the ball and they want it in tight areas. The mix of 62% possession, short passing, and frequent through balls points to a team that doesn’t just circulate for show — they’re trying to open the centre. With Nico Paz averaging 3.7 shots per game and owning 8 goals and 6 assists, the play naturally funnels through him: receive between the lines, turn, and either punch a pass through or take the shot himself.
Expect Como to attack through the middle and keep Fiorentina’s midfield swivelling. If Fiorentina collapse into the centre, Como have wide outlets in Vojvoda and the full-backs to stretch the block and reset the angle, then go back inside.
Fiorentina’s problem: the list of weak points lines up badly here
Fiorentina’s defensive profile reads like a warning label for this exact opponent: very weak against through balls, very weak at stopping opponents creating chances, and very weak at protecting a lead. That’s an invitation for Como to keep turning the screw. Even if Fiorentina nick the first goal, the game-state doesn’t automatically calm down for them.
Fiorentina’s route: break fast, shoot often, make chaos
Fiorentina have goal threats: Mandragora (6) and Kean (6) lead the scoring, and Kean fires 4.1 shots per game. The quickest way to make this uncomfortable is to turn transitions into shots before Como’s structure resets. Como’s one glaring issue is also clear: they can be very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. If Fiorentina can win the first duel and release runners early, the match can swing in a blink.
Key Zones
- The Paz zone: If Nico Paz gets time to turn, Como’s through-ball game becomes a constant threat — and Fiorentina’s weakest area is exactly that channel.
- Set-piece tension: Como are strong at defending set pieces, while Fiorentina are weak at defending set pieces and aerial duels. Corners and free-kicks could tilt momentum.
- Discipline and territory: Fiorentina have 72 yellow cards to Como’s 61. If they’re constantly chasing, they risk cheap fouls in dangerous areas.
- Early phases at Sinigaglia: Como are unbeaten at half time in their last 12 home Serie A games. If Fiorentina don’t weather that opening control, the match gets long quickly.
What Could Go Wrong?
Como’s clean-sheet run meets a Fiorentina side whose last six Serie A matches have seen both teams score. One transition, one mistimed offside trap, one loose pass in build-up — and the game can flip from controlled to chaotic. And if Como dominate without landing the first punch, Fiorentina’s willingness to attack through balls and crosses can turn a neat afternoon into a scrap.
Punchy Stats
- Clean-Sheet Heat: Como arrive chasing a fourth straight Serie A clean sheet, already on a three-game shutout run, with 16 conceded in 23 — that’s a defence setting the tone early.
- Away-Day Alarm: Fiorentina have conceded 1+ goals in nine straight away Serie A games, and they’ve managed just four wins in their last 24 away league matches — a pattern that invites pressure.
- Ball vs Breaks: Como average 62% possession with 547.33 passes per game at 88% accuracy, while Fiorentina sit on 53% possession and 436.36 passes at 84% — expect Como to squeeze the pitch and force long spells without the ball.
Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
This is the most straightforward market where you select one of three outcomes: a home win, a draw, or an away win. It works based on the result at the end of 90 minutes plus injury time.
Pros: High liquidity and clarity. Cons: Low prices for heavy favourites.
Correct Score
In this market, you must predict the exact final scoreline. It requires precise accuracy regarding the number of goals scored by both the home and away teams.
Pros: High potential returns. Cons: Extreme volatility; one goal destroys the selection.
Other opportunities in this market: Cautious bettors often look at ‘Double Chance’ (covering two of three 1X2 outcomes) for a higher probability but lower price. Higher-risk approaches include ‘Handicaps’, where a team starts with a virtual goal deficit. Trade-offs usually involve balancing the volatility of late goals and game-state effects against the offered odds.
🎯 Como vs Fiorentina Prediction: Como to Win
Como enter this fixture with significant momentum, positioned sixth in Serie A and fresh from midweek cup success. Their tactical identity under Cesc Fàbregas is built on extreme territorial control, averaging 62.2% possession and over 547 passes per game. This structure has translated into defensive excellence, with the side currently on a three-game shutout streak and seeking a fourth consecutive clean sheet. At the Sinigaglia, Como are unbeaten at half time in their last 12 Serie A matches, establishing a pattern of early control that visitors find difficult to break.
Tactical Indicators
- Como average 62% possession and 547 passes per game.
- Como have conceded only 16 goals in 23 league matches.
- Fiorentina have managed just four wins in their last 24 away league games.
In contrast, Fiorentina sit 18th and are struggling for survival. Their away form is a significant concern, having conceded at least one goal in nine straight Serie A matches on the road. Defensively, they are very weak against through balls and at stopping opponents from creating chances—two areas where Como, led by the creative Nico Paz, excel. Given Como have already defeated Fiorentina twice this season in both the league and cup, their superior structure and defensive stability make a home win highly plausible.
Risk Factor: Fiorentina have seen both teams score in their last six matches, suggesting they can create chaos in transition if Como’s high line is caught.
⚔️ Correct Score Prediction: Como 2-0 Fiorentina
The 2-0 scoreline reflects Como’s ability to combine offensive efficiency with defensive shutouts. They have already recorded 13 clean sheets this season, and their average of 14.6 shots per game suggests they have the volume to breach a Fiorentina defence that has conceded 38 times in 24 matches. Fiorentina’s specific weakness in defending aerial duels and set pieces further invites pressure from a Como side that is strong at defending their own box.
Clean Sheets
Goals/Game
While Fiorentina fire 14.1 shots per game, they are often pushed into low-percentage efforts by disciplined defences. Como’s ability to suffocate the centre through Perrone and Da Cunha should limit the influence of Kean and Mandragora. With Nico Paz dictated play in the “Paz zone” between the lines, Como are expected to find the breakthroughs required to secure a two-goal margin. The absence of Morata may slightly lower the ceiling for a rout, but it concentrates the finishing duties on Douvikas, who benefits from a high volume of through balls.
Risk Factor: Fiorentina’s Moise Kean fires 4.1 shots per game; a single moment of individual brilliance could ruin the shutout.
⚠️ Key Tactical Mismatch
Key Tactical Mismatch
Como lead the league in through ball attempts, specifically targeting the gaps between central defenders.
Ranked among the worst for goals conceded from through balls. Vulnerable to Paz’s vision.
Common Questions: Como vs Fiorentina
⊕What is a Draw No Bet?
Draw No Bet is a market that removes the option of a draw. If you back a team and they win, your bet wins; if the match ends in a draw, your stake is returned in full. It is a safer way to back a winner while protecting against a stalemate.
⊕Is Nico Paz playing today?
Yes, Nico Paz is expected to start in the creative number 10 role. He is Como’s primary dictator of play, owning 8 goals and 6 assists so far this season.
⊕How many clean sheets do Como have?
Como have kept 13 clean sheets in 23 Serie A matches. They are currently on a three-game shutout streak and have conceded only 16 goals all season.
⊕What is an Over 2.5 Goals bet?
An Over 2.5 Goals bet wins if there are three or more goals scored in the match. The final scoreline does not matter as long as the total combined goals reach at least three.
⊕Why is Fiorentina’s away form poor?
Fiorentina have managed only four wins in their last 24 away league matches. They have conceded goals in nine straight away fixtures, showing a consistent lack of defensive stability on the road.
⊕Who leads the scoring for Fiorentina?
Moise Kean and Mandragora are the joint top scorers for Fiorentina with 6 goals each. Kean is particularly active, firing 4.1 shots per game.
⊕Is Alvaro Morata fit to play?
No, Alvaro Morata is out with an adductor injury until at least late February. Douvikas is expected to lead the line in his absence.
⊕What is a Correct Score bet?
A Correct Score bet requires you to predict the exact final score of the match. It is a high-reward market but carries significant risk as one goal from either side can change the outcome.
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