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Can Famalicão turn a tough trip to the Estádio da Luz into a statement against unbeaten Benfica? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Both teams average over 54% possession and play attacking styles. Swansea are dominant at home, but Birmingham’s high shot volume (14 per game) makes them a constant scoring threat.
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67% of the last six meetings between these clubs have ended in draws. Their league stats for possession and passing accuracy are nearly identical, suggesting a balanced contest.
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Benfica vs Famalicao Predictions and Best Bets
Benfica vs Famalicao — bet365 Market Snapshot
Explore key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Pricing reflects Benfica’s unbeaten home streak against the visitors and their strong defensive record.
A narrow margin or a two-goal cushion for the hosts are the most frequent market outcomes at the Luz.
- Home grip at the Luz: Benfica are unbeaten in 10 home games against Famalicão since December 2019, giving Monday’s visitors a clear historical hurdle before anything else.
- Unbeaten, and built on control: Benfica have 9 wins, 5 draws and 0 losses after 14 league matches, scoring 30 and conceding only 8 to sit third on 32 points.
- Striker spotlight: Evangelos Pavlidis has 13 league goals for Benfica, while Famalicão’s joint top scorers are Sá and Mohamed Yassir Zabiri with 4 each, shaping where the finishing pressure sits.
Attacking Power: Goals per Match Comparison
Benfica’s clinical forward line, led by Pavlidis, has maintained a high scoring frequency compared to the visitors’ more conservative approach.
With 30 goals in 14 matches, the hosts have established one of the most dangerous attacking records in the division.
The visitors focus on efficiency, scoring significantly fewer goals on average than their opponents tonight.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded per Match
Both sides boast strong defensive organizations, which is reflected in their low rates of goals conceded throughout the season.
Conceding only 8 goals in 14 matches highlight’s Benfica’s ability to minimize clear chances for the opposition.
Famalicão matches are typically tight affairs, with their backline proving difficult to breach even for top-tier attacks.
Can Famalicão turn a tough trip to the Estádio da Luz into a statement against unbeaten Benfica?
Benfica’s Monday night at the Estádio da Luz comes with a familiar domestic objective: keep the momentum rolling in round 15 of the Portuguese Primeira Liga and keep the pressure on at the top end of the table. The visitors arrive with a very different emotional backdrop. Famalicão are described as still reeling from a midweek Taça de Portugal exit, and now they have to reset quickly for one of the league’s most demanding trips.
There’s a long-running edge to this fixture in Lisbon, too. Benfica are unbeaten in their last 10 home games against Famalicão dating back to December 2019, and that detail alone frames the challenge: Famalicão don’t just need a good performance, they need something they haven’t managed at this ground for years.
The table picture gives it extra bite. Benfica sit third after 14 matches with 32 points, while Famalicão are sixth with 23 points from the same number of games. That gap doesn’t make it a mismatch, but it does sharpen the question of “how” each side tries to win it. Benfica have been racking up goals and controlling matches; Famalicão have been quietly efficient, with a strong goals-against record and an away profile that suggests they travel well.
So this one feels like a meeting of two teams who broadly know what they are: one that wants to dominate the ball and territory, another that’s shown it can keep games tight and stay hard to finish against. The line-ups give the clearest clues for what comes next.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
Benfica’s possible starting XI is listed as: Trubin; Dedic, Otamendi, Araujo, Dahl; Barrenechea, Rios; Aursnes, Rego, Sudakov; Pavlidis.
On paper, that reads like a back four, a double pivot, three behind a central striker. If that’s how it plays, the balance is obvious: Pavlidis as the reference point up top, with Aursnes, Rego and Sudakov working around him for connection, second balls and combinations. Behind them, Barrenechea and Rios look set to provide the platform — protection for the centre-backs, a base for circulation, and the ability to counter-press quickly if Benfica lose it in advanced areas. With Dedic and Dahl listed as full-backs, you’d expect them to be important for Benfica’s width and for pinning Famalicão’s wide players back.
Famalicão’s possible starting XI is: Carevic; Pinheiro, De Haas, Realpe, Soares; Van de Looi, De Amorim; Dias, Sa, Sorriso; Zabiri.
That also suggests a back four and a double pivot, with a line of three supporting Zabiri. It’s a set-up that can become compact quickly: two central midfielders screening, three across behind the striker to block central lanes, and then quick support forward when the moment’s right. With Dias and Sorriso listed in the three, Famalicão have clear options to threaten from the wide areas — whether that’s direct running into space or working into crossing positions when they do get territory.
The team news, then, points to a contest of structure: Benfica’s front four trying to disorganise a likely two-banks-of-four shape, and Famalicão trying to keep their distances clean while still carrying enough threat to stop Benfica camped in their half all night.
How the Match Could Be Played
If Benfica set up as that 4-2-3-1 shape suggests, the early pattern should be familiar: territorial pressure, patience in possession, and a willingness to keep recycling until a gap appears. With Aursnes, Rego and Sudakov behind Pavlidis, Benfica can attack with variety — one can drop to link, another can run beyond, another can drift into the half-spaces to combine with overlapping full-backs. That kind of rotation is especially useful against a side that will likely protect the middle first.
The key tactical question is where Benfica choose to create their advantages. One route is to overload the wide channels: if Dedic and Dahl push on, Benfica can force Famalicão’s wide players to defend deep, which then stretches the line behind them and creates pockets for the three attacking midfielders to receive between the lines. Another route is to hunt the “second ball” zone around the edge of the box: play into Pavlidis, set it, then arrive with runners from the three and the double pivot.
Out of possession, Benfica’s numbers hint at a side comfortable playing on the front foot, and the likely double pivot suggests they can press with cover. Barrenechea and Rios can hold the centre, allowing the three behind Pavlidis to jump onto passes into midfield and try to lock Famalicão in. The pressing cue is obvious: if Benfica can force Famalicão into longer clearances, Otamendi and Araujo will fancy winning those first contacts — and then it’s about keeping the ball in Famalicão’s half for another wave.
For Famalicão, the route through the match might be about choosing their moments rather than trying to win every phase. With Van de Looi and De Amorim sitting, they can protect central spaces and try to shepherd Benfica into wide areas. That doesn’t mean “letting them cross” is a plan — it rarely is — but it can be a way of reducing the damage from through-balls and cut-backs if the centre is protected properly.
The transition threat is where Famalicão’s line-up could really matter. Dias, Sa and Sorriso behind Zabiri gives them three players who can spring forward quickly once the ball is recovered. If Benfica’s full-backs are high, the obvious counter is into the channels they leave behind. The game might hinge on whether Famalicão can turn just a few recoveries into clean forward carries, rather than clearing under pressure and immediately defending again.
There’s also a game-state question. Benfica’s home results in the league include plenty of draws, which can happen when a team dominates but meets a block that doesn’t crack easily. If this stays level deep into the match, you can imagine Benfica continuing to probe, but with an increasing need for precision in their final action. If Benfica score early, though, the whole picture changes — because Famalicão then need to open up more, and those spaces between the lines become much harder to protect.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
Benfica’s league record after 14 matches is striking: 9 wins, 5 draws, 0 losses, with 30 goals scored and only 8 conceded. That “0 losses” matters tactically because it usually reflects control — not just of the ball, but of risk. Conceding 0.57 goals per match backs up the idea of a side that limits opponents’ chances, and the xG against figure of 0.99 per match suggests they aren’t regularly living on the edge either.
At the other end, Benfica’s attack points toward sustained pressure rather than sporadic bursts. They average 15.86 shots per match and 5.93 on target, which tells you they’re producing a steady diet of attempts, not relying on a single moment. The 1.86 xG for per match helps explain why: that shot volume is turning into chance quality, and it aligns with their 2.14 goals scored per match.
Famalicão’s numbers explain why this won’t automatically become an open, chaotic night. They’ve conceded 9 goals in 14 matches — 0.64 per match — and they have an overall clean sheets rate listed at 57%. That’s the statistical shape of a team that stays in games. Their possession average of 50% suggests they’re not obsessed with hoarding the ball for its own sake, and their 13.64 shots per match is healthy enough to indicate they can create, even if their 1.29 goals per match shows they’ve generally been more measured than explosive.
The contrast in underlying figures is revealing. Benfica’s xG for is 1.86 per match, while Famalicão’s xG against is 1.34; that hints at Benfica having the tools to create chances even against organised opposition, but also that Famalicão have been operating in matches where opponents have had a fair share of opportunity. Meanwhile, Famalicão’s own xG for is 1.54, against Benfica’s xG against of 0.99 — a reminder that if Benfica keep their usual defensive standards, Famalicão may need to be sharp with the chances they do carve out.
Individual production adds another layer. Pavlidis is listed with 13 league goals, with Sudakov on 4 and Aursnes on 2. For Famalicão, Sá and Zabiri are listed with 4 goals each. In other words: Benfica have a clear focal-point finisher, while Famalicão’s goals are spread across more modest individual totals — which can be a strength if it makes them less predictable, but it also raises the bar for efficiency when chances are limited.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first “moment” is Benfica’s ability to turn dominance into clean chances rather than hopeful shots. Their shot volume is high, but the real tell on the night will be how many of those efforts come from good central areas, and how often the final pass arrives with the receiver facing goal. If Aursnes, Rego and Sudakov can receive between the lines and combine quickly with Pavlidis, Benfica can force Famalicão’s back four to make uncomfortable decisions: step out and leave space behind, or hold position and allow shots from the edge of the box.
The second is Famalicão’s transition timing. With Dias, Sa and Sorriso supporting Zabiri, there’s enough pace and purpose in that band of three to make Benfica think twice about overcommitting. The quality of the first forward pass after the regain could decide whether Famalicão get “attacks” or just “clearances”. If they can find Zabiri early and get runners around him, they can at least make Benfica defend facing their own goal — and that’s a small victory even if it doesn’t immediately lead to a shot.
Third, watch the duel between control and calm. Benfica’s record of 5 draws in 14 league matches hints at games where opponents have managed to drag them into long, stubborn puzzles. Famalicão’s defensive numbers suggest they can be exactly that kind of opponent. If it’s still level late on, the match could become a test of patience: Benfica trying not to force it, Famalicão trying not to gift a cheap opening.
What could go wrong with this read? Football has a habit of laughing at neat tactical scripts. An early goal can flip everything, a single mistake in build-up can create a chance that doesn’t “fit” the flow, and a game that looks like a slow squeeze can suddenly become stretched if one side starts chasing. Even with two teams showing strong defensive records, fine margins in the box can decide a night like this.
Best Bet for Benfica vs Famalicão
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Benfica to Win and Both Teams to Score: No
Benfica enter this fixture with a defensive record that has defined their domestic campaign, conceding just eight goals across 14 league matches. This average of 0.57 goals conceded per game highlights a side that excels at limiting high-quality opportunities for their opponents, a fact supported by an expected goals against (xG) figure of just 0.99. When playing at the Estádio da Luz, this control is even more pronounced; they are unbeaten in their last 10 home meetings against Famalicão, creating a psychological and tactical barrier that has proven difficult to breach for years.
The visitors arrive with a respectable league standing but are tasked with overcoming a massive statistical hurdle. While Famalicão have been efficient in their own right, keeping clean sheets in 57% of their matches and conceding only 0.64 goals per game, their offensive output is significantly more modest than the hosts’. They average just 1.29 goals per match, and their goals are often spread across the squad rather than being concentrated in a prolific individual threat. Against a Benfica double pivot of Barrenechea and Rios, Famalicão are likely to find the central lanes congested, forcing them to rely on low-probability chances from wide areas.
Furthermore, Benfica’s ability to dominate territory—averaging nearly 16 shots per match—means Famalicão will likely spend the majority of the night in a deep defensive block. While this structure has served the visitors well, it often leaves the lone striker isolated. Given that Benfica have managed to keep their goal remarkably secure throughout the season and have a clear historical edge in this specific matchup, the most justified outcome is a Benfica victory characterized by defensive shutout.
What could go wrong The primary threat to this selection is a set-piece or a clinical counter-attack spearheaded by Sorriso or Zabiri. While Benfica control the vast majority of their games, they have drawn five times this season, often in matches where they dominated possession but failed to account for a single high-impact transition. If Famalicão can weather the initial pressure and strike via a rebound or a defensive lapse during a Benfica corner, the “No” portion of the Both Teams to Score market would be compromised even if Benfica go on to win.
Correct score lean
2-0 Benfica Win
A 2-0 scoreline is highly consistent with the seasonal averages and tactical setups of both teams. Benfica score an average of 2.14 goals per match and possess a primary goalscorer in Pavlidis, who has already netted 13 times this league season. Conversely, Famalicão boast a strong defensive record, conceding only 0.64 goals per game, which suggests they are unlikely to be completely overwhelmed or routed. However, Benfica’s sustained pressure and high volume of shots on target (nearly six per game) should eventually breach Famalicão’s organized but pressured backline twice. Combined with Benfica’s league-leading defensive record, a clean sheet for the hosts is the most probable outcome.
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