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Can AVS turn width and volume into points against a Moreirense side built for control? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Moreirense hold a significant advantage in league position and technical efficiency. AVS are currently bottom of the table and remain winless after 16 matches, largely due to a defense that concedes an average of 2.16 goals per game. Moreirense’s strength in wide areas and superior pass accuracy (82.9%) should allow them to exploit an AVS side that is very weak at defending wing attacks. Given AVS's struggles in front of goal and their inability to keep clean sheets, the visitors are well-placed to secure three points against the league's most vulnerable backline.
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This scoreline reflects the offensive and defensive disparities between the two clubs. AVS average less than a goal per game and have failed to score in their last two matches, while their defense has conceded 41 times this season. Moreirense are strong finishers and should be able to navigate a defense that has zero clean sheets to its name. A two-goal margin is consistent with AVS's recent 0-2 loss to Porto and their season average of goals conceded, providing a balanced outlook for a controlled away win.
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AVS vs Moreirense Predictions and Best Bets
AVS vs Moreirense — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below based on match analysis and provided statistics.
Moreirense arrive as favourites given AVS’s winless record, while the home side looks to secure their first victory.
Probabilities suggest a low-scoring affair, with narrow margins being the most expected outcomes.
- AVS’ season-long hole to climb: After 16 league matches, AVS have four points with 11 scored and 41 conceded, showing how quickly their games can tilt against them.
- Control vs directness in the numbers: AVS average 42.0% possession and 76.1% pass accuracy, while Moreirense average 48.7% possession and 82.9% pass accuracy, shaping the likely tempo battle.
- A finishing gap that may define the day: Moreirense have 21 goals in 15 league matches, while AVS have 11 in 16, putting extra pressure on AVS’ wide play to create clear chances.
Defensive Profile: Goals Conceded per Match
The gap in defensive performance has been a defining feature of both teams’ campaigns in the first half of the season.
With 41 goals conceded so far, the backline has faced significant pressure across all competitions.
The visitors have maintained a more controlled defensive record, contributing to their top-half position.
Technical Control: Pass Accuracy
Connecting passes effectively often dictates which side can sustain pressure and manage the tempo of the game.
Lower accuracy often leads to transition opportunities for opponents when building from the back.
Moreirense’s ability to retain the ball underpins their strong identity and higher league standing.
AVS and Moreirense start the new year by meeting at the Estádio do CD das Aves in round 17 of the Primeira Liga on Saturday, with the table giving the game an immediate edge. AVS sit 18th with four points after 16 matches, and the second half of the season arrives with a very blunt instruction: find a way to stop the drift. Moreirense come in eighth with 21 points from 15 games, still close enough to the pack above to keep their ambitions alive, but carrying a recent run that has offered more frustration than lift.
The mood around the home side is easy to read from the numbers. AVS have yet to win in the league this season, with 11 goals scored and 41 conceded. Their results list is peppered with tough afternoons — defeats at Vitória de Guimarães, Sporting CP and FC Porto — and even when they’ve found a foothold, like the 2–2 draw with Nacional, there’s been a sense of the match never quite being under control for long.
Moreirense’s recent sequence tells a different story: not so much a collapse as a sticky spell. A goalless draw away at Estrela da Amadora steadied things after a 0–4 home loss to Benfica, and there have been wild games too, like a 3–3 draw at Estoril. They arrive with the steadier league position and a clearer identity, but not with the sort of rhythm that makes anyone swagger into someone else’s ground.
Set against that, this feels like a game where styles matter as much as status. AVS need solutions; Moreirense need a cleaner week’s work. The pitch will decide who gets it.
Team News and Likely Set-Ups
AVS’ possible starting XI is listed as: Simão; Ponck, Santos, Devenish; Spencer, Lima, Assunção, Rivas; Akinsola, Tomané, Perea. Even without labelling it too rigidly, the shape hints at a side happy to play with width and get the ball forward early. Spencer and Rivas look like the natural wide outlets, with Lima and Assunção central, and a front three that gives them options: Tomané as a focal point, Akinsola as a runner, and Perea offering another attacking angle from the left side.
That selection also speaks to AVS’ balancing act. The team profile leans towards long balls and frequent crossing, and that naturally puts pressure on the back line to defend transitions when moves break down. With Devenish and Santos in the defensive unit, and Ponck alongside, AVS are likely to prioritise clearing danger and resetting shape rather than building slowly through short combinations.
Moreirense’s possible starting XI is listed as: Ferreira; Rodrigues, Maracás, Batista, Kiko; Martins, Stjepanović, Alanzinho; Travassos, Schettine, Costa. On paper, it reads like a back four with a midfield three and a front three, but it also contains the ingredients for the 4-2-3-1 they’ve used regularly: Alanzinho can operate between the lines, Travassos and Costa can start wide, and Schettine is a natural reference point up front.
Personnel-wise, it’s a side that should suit their declared tendencies: short passes, playing with width, and attacking down the left. The presence of Maracás in the defensive line and Stjepanović in midfield hints at a team comfortable setting a platform, then choosing the moment to turn possession into a direct threat.
How the Match Could Be Played
The most likely rhythm is AVS trying to make the game open, while Moreirense try to make it organised.
AVS are described as playing with width, attempting crosses often, and using long balls. That suggests early diagonals into wide areas, quick deliveries into the box, and a willingness to shoot rather than overthink. It also matches their “take a lot of shots” profile. The risk, of course, is that shots and crosses become a form of hope if they’re not backed by good box occupation and second-ball pressure.
That’s where the likely AVS front line becomes central to the story. With Tomané, Akinsola and Perea all named, AVS can load the box in different ways. Tomané brings a clear target for crosses, Akinsola can attack space either side of him, and Perea can pull defenders into wide areas before cutting inside or slipping in behind. AVS’ stated strength in creating chances using through balls adds another wrinkle: it’s not only about swinging it in, it’s also about spotting the early run and trying to punch through centrally when the back line steps up.
Moreirense, though, are not built to play into that chaos. Their style points to short passing, and their characteristics include being strong at attacking down the wings and finishing scoring chances. That combination can hurt AVS in two ways. First, it can force AVS to defend long spells without the ball — never a comfortable place for a team with “keeping possession of the ball” rated very weak. Second, it can turn AVS’ own wide play against them: if a cross is cleared and Moreirense break into the spaces behind Spencer or Rivas, the home side can suddenly be sprinting back towards their own goal.
A key tactical battle, then, is the wide zones. AVS are rated very weak at defending against attacks down the wings, while Moreirense are strong down the wings and like to play with width. That looks like a flashing sign for Travassos and Costa, and for the overlaps from Rodrigues and Kiko. If Moreirense can create 2v1s out wide, they can drag AVS’ defenders into uncomfortable choices: step out and leave gaps inside, or hold shape and allow deliveries and cut-backs.
Equally, Moreirense have weaknesses that AVS can lean on. Defending counter attacks is listed as weak, and defending set pieces is also flagged. If AVS can turn the game into quick transition moments — win the ball, play forward early, and get runners beyond Tomané — they can land punches without needing long spells of build-up. And if AVS can earn corners and wide free-kicks through their width and crossing, they can keep asking the same awkward question again and again.
The personality contrast also matters. Moreirense are described as aggressive and consistent in their first eleven, while AVS are described as non-aggressive and rotating their first eleven. That doesn’t decide effort levels on the day, but it does hint at how duels might feel: Moreirense looking to squeeze space, win second balls, and play from a stable base; AVS trying to manufacture moments through directness and volume.
There’s also an intriguing mirror: both sides are tagged as weak at protecting the lead. So if someone scores early, it doesn’t automatically mean the match calms down. It might do the opposite.
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The Numbers That Support the Story
The league positions set the context plainly: AVS are 18th with four points from 16 games, while Moreirense are eighth with 21 points from 15 games. That gap is not just aesthetic — it reflects output at both ends. AVS have scored 11 and conceded 41, which translates to an average of 0.69 goals scored per league game and 2.16 conceded across their 19 matches in all listed competitions. That matters because it frames the challenge for their game plan: they need their attacking approach to produce more than chances; it has to produce goals, and more regularly than it has so far.
Shot profiles underline how different the two sides’ possession lives are. AVS average 42% possession in the league with a 76.1% pass accuracy, while Moreirense sit at 48.7% possession and 82.9% pass accuracy. In simple terms, that suggests Moreirense are more comfortable keeping the ball and connecting passes under pressure — important in an away game where calming the tempo can be as valuable as creating chances.
Yet AVS do generate activity. They average 10.3 shots per league game, and their overall shot breakdown shows 60% of attempts coming from inside the box. That suggests AVS can get the ball into dangerous areas, even if their “finishing scoring chances” rating being weak explains why that hasn’t turned into a healthier goals column.
Moreirense’s league totals show 21 goals in 15 matches, and while they take fewer shots per game on average (9.8), they are rated strong at finishing scoring chances. That combination is often the difference between “busy” and “effective” — and it’s why AVS’ defensive weaknesses against skillful players and through balls could be tested if Moreirense find Alanzinho between the lines and release runners early.
Recent results add texture. AVS’ last six matches show one win, one draw and four defeats, while Moreirense’s last six show one win, three draws and two defeats. It’s not a roaring run for either side, but it does suggest Moreirense have been harder to beat, even when not quite winning enough.
Key “Moments” to Watch
The first is how quickly AVS can get the ball wide and into the box. With Spencer and Rivas named in the likely XI, and with AVS described as attempting crosses often, those early deliveries will be a theme. If Tomané can win first contacts — or if Akinsola and Perea can arrive for second balls — AVS can turn territory into shots and make the stadium feel involved.
The second is Moreirense’s left-sided threat. They’re described as attacking down the left and playing with width, and AVS are rated very weak at defending against attacks down the wings. If Kiko and Costa can combine and overload that flank, it can force AVS’ defensive line into constant lateral shuffling, the kind that eventually opens a gap for a cut-back or a quick switch to the far side.
Set pieces could also loom. Both teams are listed as weak defending set pieces, so corners and wide free-kicks might feel unusually “live”, especially in a match where open-play control could swing back and forth.
Then there’s the question of game state. With both sides rated weak at protecting the lead, the match could stay edgy even after a goal. A single scrappy moment, a loose clearance, or one well-timed run can flip the direction of play quickly. That’s especially true if AVS take risks to chase the game, or if Moreirense’s aggression in duels wins them territory but also invites pressure from dead balls.
What could go wrong with this read? It could simply refuse to behave. A match built on wide play and directness can hinge on a couple of deflections, a mistimed challenge in a dangerous area, or a spell where neither side strings enough passes together to impose a plan. Fine margins, big consequences — particularly for a home side desperate for traction.
Best Bet for AVS vs Moreirense
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Moreirense to win
The case for an away victory is built primarily on the stark contrast in defensive stability and clinical finishing between the two sides. AVS enter this fixture anchored to the bottom of the table, having failed to secure a single league victory in 16 attempts this season. Their defensive record is a major cause for concern, with 41 goals conceded—an average of 2.16 goals per game across all competitions. This vulnerability is particularly pronounced against teams that utilize width, and with Moreirense specifically noted for their strength in attacking down the wings and their preference for short-passing build-ups, the hosts are likely to find themselves stretched thin.
Moreirense, sitting comfortably in eighth place, possess the technical efficiency that AVS lacks. While AVS average a pass accuracy of 76.1%, Moreirense operate at a much higher 82.9%, allowing them to exert better control over the tempo of the game. Furthermore, Moreirense are rated as strong at finishing scoring chances, a trait that stands in direct opposition to an AVS side that, despite averaging 10.3 shots per game, is rated weak in front of goal. This suggests that while the home side may create activity, they lack the efficiency to punish opponents, whereas Moreirense are well-equipped to capitalize on the defensive lapses that have defined AVS’s campaign.
Tactically, the matchup favors the visitors. AVS’s reliance on long balls and high-volume crossing often leaves them exposed to transitions. Given that Moreirense are strong at creating chances through through balls and attacking wide areas, they are perfectly positioned to exploit the spaces left behind by AVS’s wing-backs, Spencer and Rivas. With a historical dominance that has seen AVS fail to win any of their previous head-to-head encounters, the weight of evidence points toward the superior tactical structure and clinical nature of the away side.
What could go wrong? The primary risk to this selection lies in Moreirense’s own lack of recent momentum, having failed to win in their last five league matches. If AVS can successfully turn the game into a chaotic, high-tempo affair driven by set pieces—where both teams have shown weakness—they might manage to scrap for a result. Additionally, if the home side’s volume of shots finally aligns with better finishing, they could frustrate a Moreirense side that has occasionally struggled to maintain leads this season.
Correct score lean: 0–2
Rationale A 0–2 scoreline is a logical extension of the performance metrics displayed by both teams. AVS have struggled immensely in the final third, failing to score in their most recent two matches and averaging just 0.69 goals per league game. Conversely, their defense has been the leakiest in the division, and they have conceded two or more goals in three of their last five outings. Moreirense’s ability to control possession and their high pass accuracy should allow them to keep a clean sheet against a “weak” finishing side while exploiting a defense that has yet to record a clean sheet this season.
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