Latvia vs Montenegro: Brave Falcons’ momentum meets Latvia’s attacking drought. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Montenegro's recent unbeaten away run and scoring momentum contrast with Latvia's severe attacking struggles, including three matches without a goal and low shots on target. Despite Latvia's defensive resilience at home, Montenegro's improved form and attacking threats provide a solid basis for a visitor win in this Nations League fixture. The hosts' limited final-third penetration reduces pressure on Montenegro's defence to be flawless.
Latvia's ongoing scoring drought and limited shots on target make a Montenegro 1-0 away win plausible, respecting Latvia's defensive resilience at home and Montenegro's recent scoring form.
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REGISTER FREE & UNLOCK TIP →Already registered? Log in18+ · Historical results only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Betting involves risk.Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Latvia v Montenegro.
Latvia welcome Montenegro on Friday with the early Nations League C picture already placing significant pressure on the hosts.
Latvia vs Montenegro — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Montenegro's strong away form and Latvia's low attacking output favour a visitor win.
Montenegro carry the sharper attack, while Latvia must improve to keep pace.
Latvia carry the stronger defensive profile, while Montenegro remain vulnerable in the likely scoreline.
Montenegro create more chances, leaving Latvia under pressure to match their attacking tempo.
Three Punchy Stats
- 0. — Latvia have not scored in any of their last three matches.
- 4. — Montenegro are unbeaten in four consecutive away games, winning three of them.
- 0.6. — Latvia’s average goals scored across their last 10 competitive matches, underlining the attacking problem Nicolato must solve.
Attacking Metrics
Recent attacking records for Latvia and Montenegro are shown below.
Defensive Metrics
Recent defensive records for Latvia and Montenegro are shown below.
Paolo Nicolato’s side have collected only one point from two matches and are still waiting for their first goal of the campaign, while Montenegro arrive with six points from six after victories in their opening two fixtures.
The contrast is clear, but Latvia’s defensive numbers suggest this may not be straightforward for the group leaders. Montenegro have momentum and a much-improved away record, yet their 3-2 victory over Armenia also exposed vulnerabilities that Latvia will hope to exploit.
Latvia need to turn defensive resistance into attacking threat
Latvia’s goalless draw with Cyprus captured their main problem. They restricted their opponents but failed to register a shot on target, with only two open-play attempts coming from inside the penalty area.
That extended their scoreless sequence to three matches, while they have failed to score twice in any of their last nine fixtures. Across their last 10 competitive games, Latvia have averaged only 0.6 goals and 2.3 shots on target.
Their wider record offers little encouragement: two wins, five draws and eight defeats across their last 15 matches.
Home advantage has not transformed their fortunes either, with only one victory from their previous 10 matches as hosts. Yet Latvia have been blanked in five of those games while conceding at least twice on only three occasions. That combination points towards a side capable of keeping matches relatively tight without consistently producing enough at the other end.
Vladislavs Gutkovskis and Roberts Uldrikis could therefore have a major responsibility if Nicolato pairs them in attack.
Montenegro carrying a very different type of momentum
Montenegro’s position is considerably healthier after taking maximum points from their opening two Nations League matches.
Their latest victory was dramatic. Armenia twice recovered from a deficit before Aleksa Latkovic struck in the 89th minute to secure a 3-2 win.
That result continued a positive period under Mirko Vucinic, who has overseen three victories and a draw across the last four matches. Montenegro have scored eight times during that sequence, although just one clean sheet shows that their improvement has not been built solely around defensive control.
Nikola Krstovic represents an obvious attacking danger after scoring against Armenia and registering four goals across Montenegro’s last 10 competitive fixtures. Milutin Osmajic, with two in that period, provides another threat if the pair again start together.
Montenegro’s away transformation could be decisive
Perhaps the most striking change concerns Montenegro’s performances on the road.
They have gone unbeaten in four consecutive away matches, winning three. Immediately before that sequence, they had lost nine successive away fixtures.
That reversal gives Friday’s visitors a platform that previously did not exist.
There is also a favourable historical pattern. Montenegro have never lost in four meetings with Latvia, recording two victories, although the most recent encounter finished 0-0.
For Latvia, preventing Montenegro from scoring first may be particularly important. Chasing a match would require Nicolato’s team to solve an attacking problem that has persisted well beyond the opening two Nations League fixtures.
A closer contest than the table suggests
The standings create a substantial gap: Montenegro have six points and five goals from two matches, whereas Latvia have one point, no goals and a minus-two goal difference.
Yet the underlying profiles make a comfortable Montenegro victory less obvious. The visitors have conceded an average of two goals across their last 10 competitive games, while Latvia’s home matches have often remained relatively contained.
Montenegro nevertheless arrive with the stronger attacking production, the superior recent results and an away record that has improved dramatically.
Latvia’s task is therefore not simply to frustrate the leaders. At some stage, they must find enough attacking quality to turn resistance into points.
Match Result
How it settles: This market requires the selected team (Montenegro) to be ahead on the scoreboard after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If the match ends in a draw or a Latvia victory, the selection loses.
Other opportunities in this market: The Double Chance market covers two of the three possible outcomes (e.g., Montenegro to win or Draw). It reduces the number of losing scenarios, but this wider coverage trades off against a shorter price.
Correct Score
How it settles: The final scoreline must be exactly 0-1 to Montenegro at the end of normal time plus stoppage time. Any other scoreline (including a 0-2 Montenegro win or a 0-0 draw) results in a losing bet.
Other opportunities in this market: The Under 2.5 Goals market wins if the match produces zero, one, or two total goals. It sacrifices the high price of picking an exact scoreline in return for covering multiple low-scoring finishes, such as 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 2-0, 0-2, and 1-1.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result Market
Selection: Montenegro to win. Choose the home win, draw or away win after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are excluded from settlement.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Latvia vs Montenegro 0-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Montenegro to win @ 3/4
Montenegro arrive with clear momentum, having taken maximum points and scored five times across their opening two Nations League fixtures. Their broader recent form under Mirko Vucinic includes three victories and a draw from their last four matches, yielding eight goals. Crucially, they have corrected their historical away struggles, transforming a severe nine-match losing streak on the road into a four-game unbeaten run that includes three victories. That platform gives the visitors a reliable basis to push for another three points.
That upward trajectory meets a Latvian side dealing with a profound lack of attacking production. Paolo Nicolato’s team have gone three matches without a goal and recently failed to register a single shot on target during their goalless draw with Cyprus. Across their last 10 competitive games, Latvia average just 0.6 goals and 2.3 shots on target. Because the hosts struggle to pose a consistent final-third threat—failing to score in five of their previous 10 home fixtures—Montenegro’s forwards, including Nikola Krstovic who has four goals in 10 competitive appearances, face significantly less pressure to produce a flawless defensive performance to secure a result.
The primary complication is that Latvia can make fixtures difficult, as they have conceded two or more goals on just three occasions across their last 10 home matches. Furthermore, Montenegro have managed only one clean sheet in their recent four-game unbeaten run, indicating they do still allow opportunities. However, given Latvia’s deep attacking limitations and the visitors’ sudden competence away from home, Montenegro hold enough sustained attacking form to force a breakthrough against a side returning just one victory from their last 10 home outings.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Montenegro have transformed their away record, unbeaten in four consecutive road matches with three wins.
- Latvia average 0.6 goals and 2.3 shots on target across their last 10 competitive fixtures.
- Montenegro have maximum points and five goals from their opening two matches.
Risk Factor: Latvia's solid home defence could frustrate Montenegro, who have only one clean sheet in four unbeaten away games.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Scored eight goals in their last four matches, building clear momentum under Mirko Vucinic.
Averaging just 0.6 goals and 2.3 shots on target across their last 10 competitive fixtures.
⚔️ Pick 2: Latvia vs Montenegro 0-1 @ 4/1
Latvia’s attacking returns have disappeared entirely, making an away clean sheet a realistic proposition for the visitors. Nicolato’s side have not scored in three consecutive matches and generated zero shots on target against Cyprus, creating only two open-play attempts inside the penalty area during that fixture. Across a wider sample of 10 competitive games, their average of 0.6 goals per match underlines a severe final-third limitation. Montenegro do concede regularly—averaging two goals against per game over their last 10 competitive matches—but Latvia’s current inability to penetrate makes this a distinct opportunity for the visitors to secure a shutout.
For the away goal, Montenegro bring clear scoring form into the fixture. They have registered eight goals across their last four matches, with Nikola Krstovic scoring four times in his last 10 competitive appearances. However, predicting a single goal rather than a wider margin respects Latvia’s capacity to contain opponents defensively at home. The hosts have limited visiting sides to a single goal or fewer in seven of their last 10 home matches, avoiding heavy defeats even when they fail to score themselves.
Historical precedent adds context, as the most recent meeting between these nations finished goalless, demonstrating Latvia’s ability to restrict spaces. A 1-0 away victory aligns with both sides’ recent trajectories: Montenegro possess the attacking sharpness to find a decisive breakthrough, while Latvia’s home defensive record suggests they will not suffer a rout, even as their attacking drought persists. An exact-score bet remains inherently fragile, particularly if Montenegro’s defence, which has secured just one clean sheet in four matches, offers up a rare Latvian opportunity.
Risk Factor: Montenegro concede regularly, so a 1-1 draw remains a credible risk despite Latvia's attacking struggles.
Frequently Asked Questions
How does the Match Result market settle for Pick 1?
The bet wins if Montenegro lead after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; a draw or Latvia win loses.
What happens if Montenegro win 2-0 in the Correct Score market?
The bet loses because the exact 0-1 scoreline is required for a win.
Are there alternatives to predicting the exact score?
Yes, the Under 2.5 Goals market covers zero, one, or two total goals including 0-1.
Why is Montenegro's away record relevant?
They ended a nine-match away losing streak with four unbeaten away games, making away form a strength.
What does the Both Teams To Score No market require?
It wins if at least one team fails to score during regular time, including 0-0 or 1-0 results.
How has Latvia's attack performed recently?
Latvia have not scored in three matches and average 0.6 goals per game over their last 10 games.
