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Montenegro crestMontenegro

UEFA Nations League | Fri 02 Oct, 17:00

Latvia v Montenegro Stats

Data last updated: Thu 01 Oct 2026, 09:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Montenegro enters this UEFA Nations League fixture as the group leader with six points, showcasing strong attacking form and . Latvia, positioned fourth with just one point, has struggled to find the net and faces a tough challenge against a Montenegro side that averages 2.5 goals scored per game and maintains a high shot volume. Montenegro's offensive efficiency and recent momentum set the stage for a competitive encounter, with tactical discipline and finishing likely to be decisive factors in this away match.

BT4Y match pick

Montenegro to Win

  • Montenegro leads the group with 6 points; Latvia has only 1 point.
  • Montenegro averages 2.5 goals per game, Latvia has yet to score.
  • Montenegro's shot volume (15.5 per game) far exceeds Latvia's (6.5).
  • Latvia has a 0% BTTS rate; Montenegro's BTTS rate is 100%.
  • Montenegro averages twice as many corners as Latvia (6 vs.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

Montenegro's of 70% reflects their dominant attacking statistics, including a high shot and shot-on-target rate, combined with Latvia's inability to score in recent matches. The price at 1.75 offers positive value with a 12.9% edge. Montenegro's offensive players like A. Krstović contribute significantly to goal threat, supported by strong recent form and season-long scoring consistency. The data quality is solid with no limitations, reinforcing in Montenegro's likelihood to secure victory.

Model Chance56.1% model chance vs 57.1% implied (-1 pts)
Strong positive
Implied Chance56.1% model chance vs 57.1% implied (-1 pts)
Positive
Value Edge56.1% model chance vs 57.1% implied (-1 pts)
Strong positive
Recent FormMontenegro unbeaten with 6 points
Strong positive
Shot VolumeMontenegro 15.5 vs Latvia 6.5
Strong positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

Montenegro's superior attacking firepower and recent unbeaten run make them the clear favorite to win this match. Latvia's lack of goals and lower shot creation suggest Montenegro's offensive pressure will likely break through, supported by their consistent season-long scoring record.

Main risk

It reduces the number of losing scenarios, but this wider coverage trades off against a shorter price.

Quote from Expert

BT4Y analyst view · Montenegro to Win

“Montenegro's attacking players, especially Latković and Krstović, provide a potent threat that Latvia's defense has struggled to contain, making Montenegro the logical choice for victory in this fixture.”

Key Data Signals

Montenegro to Win evidence

Montenegro leads the group with 6 points; Latvia has only 1 point.

Montenegro averages 2.5 goals per game, Latvia has yet to score.

Montenegro's shot volume (15.5 per game) far exceeds Latvia's (6.5).

Latvia has a 0% BTTS rate; Montenegro's BTTS rate is 100%.

What To Watch In The Data

Montenegro to Win notes

  • Over the last five matches, Montenegro has a 100% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a high-tempo, attacking style that often results in multiple goals.
  • Latvia's matches have not reached this threshold, but Montenegro's offensive approach suggests a likely continuation of high-scoring encounters in this fixture.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Latvia0
Avg goals scored
Montenegro2.5
Latvia1
Avg goals conceded
Montenegro1.5
Latvia0%
BTTS rate
Montenegro100%
Latvia0%
Over 2.5 goals
Montenegro100%
Best odds for this sectionBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 58% vs implied 48% · edge +10.7 pts
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
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Under 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 58%
1.65
Check odds @ 1.65
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.36
Check odds @ 1.36
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 28%
4
Check odds @ 4
BTTS NoBetfred guide price · model 46%
1.67
Check odds @ 1.67
Montenegro's 100% BTTS rate contrasts sharply with Latvia's 0%, indicating Montenegro consistently scores while Latvia struggles offensively. The average goals per match between these teams is moderate at 1.67, but Montenegro's attacking potency suggests a higher likelihood of goals, favoring Montenegro scoring multiple times while Latvia may remain scoreless.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

UEFA Nations League fixtures and predictionsrelated match predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickMontenegro to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 57% · edge -1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Load more odds for this section
Over 8.5 CornersBetUK guide price · model 71%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBetMGM guide price · model 58%
2.1
Check odds @ 2.1
Over 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 46%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Montenegro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
The 56.1% for Montenegro to Win sits against roughly 57.1% implied by the current price (-1 pts). Montenegro have the stronger recent points return, taking 6 points from the sample compared with 1 for Latvia. Montenegro’s away transformation could be decisive
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Latvia

DL
Last 50W 1D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 100W 1D 1L
28 Sep 2026H Cyprus0-0
25 Sep 2026A Armenia0-2

Montenegro

WW
Last 52W 0D 0L
Last 5 record
Last 102W 0D 0L
28 Sep 2026A Armenia3-2
25 Sep 2026H Cyprus2-1
Market aligned with main pickMontenegro to WinBetfred guide price · Model 56% vs implied 57% · edge -1 pts
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 80%
1.14
Check odds @ 1.14
Montenegro Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 64%
1.38
Check odds @ 1.38
Montenegro's recent form is strong, securing 6 points with an average of 2.5 goals scored and only 1.5 conceded, demonstrating both attacking efficiency and defensive solidity. Latvia's form is weaker, with just 1 point and no goals scored, indicating offensive struggles and difficulty in breaking down opponents' defenses.
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

0%Latvia Over 2.5
100%Montenegro Over 2.5
1.67H2H avg goals
Over the last five matches, Montenegro has a 100% rate of games exceeding 2.5 goals, indicating a high-tempo, attacking style that often results in multiple goals. Latvia's matches have not reached this threshold, but Montenegro's offensive approach suggests a likely continuation of high-scoring encounters in this fixture.

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