Croatia vs England Predictions

Croatia vs England: Three Lions face a stern Rijeka test after Czechia response. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

England travel to Rijeka with renewed momentum but little room for complacency against a Croatia side whose recent defensive record sits awkwardly alongside formidable competitive home form.

Three Punchy Stats

• Croatia have conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals, a recurring weakness England have the attacking form to examine.
• England have won four successive Nations League away matches, adding a useful travelling record to their 2-0 victory in Prague.
• Croatia are unbeaten in nine competitive home games, winning eight, which provides an important counterweight to their recent defensive difficulties.

Both teams have three points after beating Czech Republic and losing to Spain, yet their routes into Saturday’s meeting feel different. England responded to their opening defeat with a controlled 2-0 victory in Prague, while Croatia arrive after conceding four against the world champions. The question is whether Thomas Tuchel’s side can expose those defensive issues without allowing Croatia’s own attacking threat to turn the contest into something less comfortable.

England found the response Tuchel needed

England’s 3-2 defeat to Spain extended their run without a clean sheet to six matches, but the reaction against Czechia was significant.

Anthony Gordon and Harry Kane scored either side of half time in a 2-0 win, while England extended their winning sequence away from home in the Nations League to four games. Tuchel has now won 18 of his 24 matches in charge, with two draws and four defeats.

There is also recent evidence that England can hurt Croatia. Their 4-2 World Cup victory came less than four months ago, while they have won three of the last five meetings between the countries since 2018.

Kane remains particularly difficult to ignore within England’s attacking picture. His goal against Czechia extended his scoring run for club and country to five matches, while his England return stands at 18 goals across his last 20 appearances.

Croatia’s defensive numbers meet strong home form

Croatia’s problem is not finding the net. They have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches, with Dion Beljo arriving in form after five goals across his last four appearances for club and country.

The concern is what happens at the other end.

Slaven Bilic’s team have conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals, and Spain exposed that vulnerability emphatically in a 4-1 defeat. Bilic subsequently highlighted a lack of aggression and criticised his side’s defending.

That makes England’s recent scoring consistency relevant: the Three Lions have scored exactly twice in five of their last eight matches.

Yet Croatia are not returning home with a weak competitive record in their own country. They are unbeaten in nine home competitive fixtures, winning eight, since a 1-0 defeat to Turkey in October 2023. England therefore face a side whose broader defensive numbers look vulnerable but whose home results demand considerably more respect.

Selection changes could reshape the contest

Jordan Pickford is set to replace James Trafford after Tuchel confirmed that the Everton goalkeeper would start England’s next two matches. Lewis Hall is expected to continue at left-back following Nico O’Reilly’s withdrawal, while Ezri Konsa could challenge Trevoh Chalobah for a starting place.

Jude Bellingham is another possible recall, with Alex Scott and James Garner also competing for midfield involvement.

Croatia have defensive decisions of their own. Josip Juranovic and Martin Erlic have withdrawn through injury, while 19-year-old Luka Vuskovic could come in alongside Josko Gvardiol. Further forward, Martin Baturina is pushing to start and Beljo’s scoring form strengthens his case to lead the attack.

Luka Modric, meanwhile, could return after scoring on his most recent Croatia start against Czechia.

Rijeka offers a sharper test of England’s progress

England’s cleaner performance against Czechia suggested a useful response to the errors that proved costly against Spain, but Croatia should present a different challenge on home soil.

The hosts have enough attacking form to threaten, particularly with Beljo scoring regularly, yet their repeated failure to keep opponents out gives England an obvious opportunity. With Kane in sustained scoring form and Gordon having struck in Prague, Tuchel has attacking momentum to work with.

Croatia’s home resilience means this is unlikely to be defined solely by their 4-1 loss in Spain. England’s task is to make their greater recent success in this matchup count while avoiding the open, error-prone passages that undermined them against Spain.

📊 Market Explainer

Main Tip

Both Teams to Score (BTTS)

Selection: Match Odds and Both Teams to Score – England. Both teams must score at least once during normal time. The match winner does not matter; the selection is settled only by whether each side finds the net.

Correct Score Tip

Correct Score Market

Selection: Croatia vs England 1-2. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.

🎯 Pick 1: Match Odds and Both Teams to Score – England @ 5/2

England travel to Rijeka with a compelling attacking case, making the away victory a logical foundation for this combined market. Thomas Tuchel has overseen 18 victories in his 24 matches in charge, and his side arrives with the momentum of four successive Nations League away wins. The primary reason to back England is their reliable output up front, specifically led by Harry Kane. The captain has scored in five consecutive matches for club and country, while the team as a whole has scored exactly twice in five of their last eight fixtures. They face a Croatian defence that Slaven Bilic openly criticised for lacking aggression during their recent 4-1 defeat to Spain, providing a clear avenue for the visitors to secure a positive result.

To justify the second half of this market, the hosts must also contribute a goal. Croatia’s broader defensive issues, having conceded in 11 of their last 12 internationals, are masked by their consistent ability to find the net. They have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches, heavily supported by Dion Beljo’s return of five goals in his last four appearances. Furthermore, while England secured a 2-0 victory over Czechia recently, they had previously gone six consecutive matches without a clean sheet, proving they can concede even when they carry the overall quality to win fixtures.

The clearest risk comes from Croatia’s formidable domestic record. They are unbeaten in nine competitive home fixtures, winning eight, which commands significant respect. However, with Josip Juranovic and Martin Erlic withdrawn through injury, a reshuffled Croatian backline faces an England attack arriving in strong scoring form. The interaction between England’s away momentum and Croatia’s consistent capacity to score leaves the away win with both teams registering a goal as a highly credible outcome.

🎯 Tactical Indicators

• England have won four successive Nations League away matches and scored exactly twice in five of their last eight games.
• Croatia have conceded a goal in 11 of their last 12 international fixtures, including four against Spain.
• The hosts have scored in 12 of their last 13 matches, demonstrating attacking consistency despite their defensive issues.

Risk Factor: Croatia are unbeaten in nine competitive home matches, winning eight, which could negate the match-winner condition if they avoid defeat.

⚔️ Pick 2: Croatia vs England 1-2 @ 7/1

Predicting a 2-1 away victory requires specific evidence that England can score multiple times while Croatia breach the visiting defence exactly once. England’s attacking consistency provides the clearest foundation for the away side’s projected total. Tuchel’s team have scored exactly twice in five of their last eight matches, establishing a clear precedent for a two-goal return. This output is driven by Kane, who boasts 18 goals in his last 20 England appearances, and supported by Anthony Gordon, who recently struck in Prague. Against a Croatian side that conceded four against Spain and must now reorganise their defence without the injured Juranovic and Erlic, England’s established two-goal habit looks highly relevant.

The case for Croatia scoring exactly once is supported by their relentless consistency in front of goal combined with England’s slightly improved defensive application. Croatia have scored in 12 of their last 13 internationals, with Beljo arriving in sharp form and Luka Modric also finding the net in his most recent start. They rarely fail to score, especially during their nine-match unbeaten competitive run at home.

Expecting more than one Croatian goal is difficult given England’s recent reaction. Tuchel’s side secured a controlled 2-0 victory over Czechia, ending a sequence of six matches without a clean sheet. That renewed defensive focus, aided by Jordan Pickford replacing James Trafford in goal, suggests England can limit the hosts’ overall attacking volume. While an exact-score selection is inherently fragile to a single additional or missing goal, the combination of England’s recurring two-goal output and Croatia’s reliable home scoring makes a 2-1 away win a coherent reflection of the data.