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Croatia crestCroatia
v
England crestEngland

UEFA Nations League | Sat 03 Oct, 17:00

Croatia v England Stats

Data last updated: Sat 24 Oct 2026, 08:18 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Croatia face England in UEFA Nations League on Sat 03 Oct, 17:00. England travel to Rijeka with renewed momentum but little room for complacency against a Croatia side whose recent defensive record sits awkwardly alongside formidable competitive home form. Croatia and England arrive with similar form, leaving fine margins likely to decide the result.

BT4Y best bet

Match and Both Teams to Score - England

  • At 5/2, Match and Both Teams to Score - England implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 44%.
  • Croatia’s reliable scoring ensures both teams will likely score, making an England win with both teams scoring a credible prediction despite Croatia’s strong home.
  • Croatia show a 100% BTTS rate and England show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.
  • Croatia average 1.5 goals scored and England average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 44% for Match and Both Teams to Score - England sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Croatia show a 100% BTTS rate and England show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market. Croatia’s reliable scoring ensures both teams will likely score, making an England win with both teams scoring a credible prediction despite Croatia’s strong home.

Model chance vs price44% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Strong positive
Croatia show a 100% BTTS rate and England show a.Visible data support
Positive
Croatia average 1.5 goals scored and England average 2, so.Visible data support
Positive
Croatia’s reliable scoring ensures both teams will likely score.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Both Teams To Score is the preferred angle because croatia’s reliable scoring ensures both teams will likely score, making an England win with both teams scoring a credible prediction despite Croatia’s strong home record. Croatia show a that shared-scoring rate rate and England show a that shared-scoring rate rate, which is the right starting point for this market. England therefore face a side whose broader defensive numbers look vulnerable but whose home results demand considerably more respect.

Main risk

England therefore face a side whose broader defensive numbers look vulnerable but whose home results demand considerably more respect.

Key Data Signals

Match and Both Teams to Score - England evidence

Croatia’s reliable scoring ensures both teams will likely score, making an England win with both teams scoring a.

Croatia show a 100% BTTS rate and England show a 50% BTTS rate, which is the right starting point for this market.

Croatia average 1.5 goals scored and England average 2, so both attacking contributions need separating.

What To Watch In The Data

Match and Both Teams to Score - England notes

  • Use shots on target to decide whether attacking involvement is shared or one-sided.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Croatia1.5
Avg goals scored
England2
Croatia2.5
Avg goals conceded
England1.5
Croatia100%
BTTS rate
England50%
Croatia100%
Over 2.5 goals
England50%
Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 1.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 88%
1.18
Check odds @ 1.18
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 52%
2.5
Check odds @ 2.5
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 34%
2.25
Check odds @ 2.25
BTTS NoBetMGM guide price · model 28%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickBTTS YesBetMGM guide price · Model 76% vs implied 62% · edge +14.3 pts
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
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Over 3.5 CardsBet365 guide price · model 61%
2.2
Check odds @ 2.2
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 70%
1.62
Check odds @ 1.62
Croatia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 45%
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
England to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Croatia to WinBetfred guide price · model 24%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
England Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
BTTS Yes is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Croatia

LW
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
29 Sep 2026A Spain1-4
26 Sep 2026A Czechia2-1

England

WL
Last 51W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 101W 0D 1L
29 Sep 2026A Czechia2-0
26 Sep 2026H Spain2-3
Best odds for this sectionCroatia Draw No BetBet365 guide price · Model 45% vs implied 35% · edge +9.9 pts
2.85
Check odds @ 2.85
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Away / DrawBetMGM guide price · model 76%
1.2
Check odds @ 1.2
Home / DrawBet365 guide price · model 49%
2
Check odds @ 2
England to WinBetMGM guide price · model 51%
1.73
Check odds @ 1.73
Croatia to WinBetfred guide price · model 24%
4.5
Check odds @ 4.5
England Draw No BetBetfred guide price · model 60%
1.4
Check odds @ 1.4
DrawBet365 guide price · model 24%
3.9
Check odds @ 3.9
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

100%Croatia Over 2.5
50%England Over 2.5
2.6H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Croatia sit at 100% and England sit at 50% with the H2H average at 2.6 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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