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New boss, bruised pride: can Real Madrid reset at the Bernabéu, or do Levante sniff a lifeline? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Madrid possess the league's most potent attack, led by Mbappé, facing a Levante defense that struggles with wing play. However, Madrid's defensive injuries and recent form suggest they will concede.
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Madrid's high shot volume (19.4/gm) typically translates to 3+ goals at home, while Levante's proficiency with through-balls should exploit a weakened Madrid backline once.
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Real Madrid vs Levante Predictions and Best Bets
Real Madrid vs Levante — bet365 Market Snapshot
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Madrid have won 8 of 9 home league matches, making them heavy favorites at the Bernabéu against 19th-placed Levante.
With Madrid’s offensive volume and Levante’s defensive struggles, markets heavily anticipate multiple goals.
- Home power, relentless volume: Real Madrid have won eight of their nine home league matches, averaging 19.4 shots per game in La Liga with 59.1% possession.
- Mbappé is the headline act: Kylian Mbappé has 18 La Liga goals in 18 appearances, averaging 4.9 shots per game and posting a standout 8.04 rating.
- Levante living on the edge: Levante sit 19th with 14 points, concede 1.62 goals per game (all competitions), and struggle badly down the wings and at set pieces.
Offensive Volume: Shots per League Game
Madrid’s high-shot strategy at the Bernabéu creates sustained pressure compared to Levante’s more limited opportunities.
Madrid dominate territory, averaging nearly 20 shots per game while maintaining 59.1% possession.
Levante struggle for volume, recording roughly half the shot count of their weekend opponents.
Defensive Stability: Goals Conceded
A snapshot of defensive vulnerability across all competitions for the visiting side.
With only 4 clean sheets this season, Levante find it difficult to keep opponents out consistently.
Despite recent cup setbacks, Madrid have maintained double-digit clean sheets throughout the campaign.
It’s been a turbulent start to 2026 in the Spanish capital. Real Madrid come into Saturday’s 13:00 kick-off off the back of two gut-punch defeats — a 3-2 Super Cup final loss to Barcelona that sparked Xabi Alonso’s exit, then a Copa del Rey elimination at Albacete by the same scoreline. Enter Álvaro Arbeloa, now tasked with steadying the ship with La Liga still very much alive.
The mission is clear: stay in touch with Barcelona. Madrid are second, four points off the leaders, and the Bernabéu has largely been a points factory. Levante arrive in 19th, short on confidence and battling a brutal set of weaknesses — especially when asked to defend wide areas and dead balls. This has the feel of a response game… but the noise around Madrid makes it anything but calm.
Team News & Lineups
Real Madrid absences (injured/suspended):
- Trent Alexander-Arnold (muscle tear, out until 02.02.2026)
- Éder Gabriel Militão (muscle injury, out until 01.04.2026)
- Dani Carvajal Ramos (knee injury, out until 27.01.2026)
- B. Abdelkader Diaz (called up to national team, out until 19.01.2026)
Levante absences (injured/suspended):
- None listed
Real Madrid possible starting XI:
Courtois; Carvajal, Asencio, Huijsen, Carreras; Valverde, Tchouaméni, Bellingham; Rodrygo, Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior
Levante possible starting XI:
Ryan; Toljan, De la Fuente, Moreno, Pampin; Martinez, Arriaga; Eyong, Alvarez, Losada; Romero
What it means
Madrid’s defensive options are squeezed, and the suggested XI still includes Carvajal despite a listed knee injury — that’s a red flag for stability at the back. Up top, though, there’s no hiding: Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior and Bellingham give Arbeloa a front end built to overwhelm.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Real Madrid | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd | 19th |
| Points | 45 | 14 |
| League goals scored | 41 | 21 |
| Shots per game (league) | 19.4 | 10.1 |
| Possession (league) | 59.1% | 41.4% |
| Pass accuracy (league) | 89.4% | 78.1 |
| Clean sheets (all comps) | 10 | 4 |
This looks like territory and pressure versus survival and sacrifice. Madrid pile on shots, passes and possession; Levante spend long spells in their own half and try to nick moments through direct play.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Madrid’s blueprint: camp in Levante’s half
Real Madrid control games high up the pitch. Short passes, heavy possession, and constant movement down the left are the core themes — backed up by a simple truth: they take a lot of shots, and they create chances through individual skill. With Valverde and Güler both on six assists in La Liga, the supply lines are real, not theoretical.
The focus will be on stretching Levante wide, then striking through the gaps. Levante are very weak defending attacks down the wings and very weak defending set pieces — that’s a dangerous combination at the Bernabéu, where pressure comes in waves and corners pile up (Madrid average 6.41 corners per game across the overall sample shown).
Levante’s hope: survive the storm, then go direct
Levante don’t want the ball. Their possession is low (41.4%) and their style leans into long balls and through balls, attacking through the middle when they do break. Karl Etta Eyong (5 goals) and Iván Romero (4) are the most obvious outlets, with Carlos Álvarez (3) offering a threat from the right.
But the risk is brutal: Levante are weak at stopping opponents creating chances and very weak at protecting a lead. Even if they land an early punch, the game can swing back quickly if they can’t hold shape under sustained pressure.
The pressure point: Madrid’s defensive vulnerabilities
Madrid are strong defending set pieces, but they’re also weak defending against through-ball attacks and weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. That opens a narrow door for Levante: one clean release, one well-timed run, and suddenly the Bernabéu gets edgy — especially after recent defeats.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early tempo: Madrid have been winning HT/FT in their last three league matches — a fast start can snap this into a one-way pattern.
- Wide areas: Levante’s wing defending is labelled very weak; Madrid’s left-sided focus looks primed to test that all afternoon.
- Set pieces: Levante’s set-piece defending is very weak, while Madrid are very strong attacking dead balls — a classic swing factor.
- Levante’s through balls: Levante’s strength is creating chances through through balls; Madrid’s weakness is defending against them.
What could go wrong?
Madrid’s recent chaos can turn dominance into impatience. If Levante survive the early wave and nick a transition moment, the fixture can tighten fast — and Madrid’s own weakness in stopping chances could make it uncomfortable longer than planned.
Best Bet for Real Madrid vs Levante
Will Arbeloa’s Debut Spark a Goal Fest at the Bernabéu?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Attack vs Defense | Madrid 41 goals; Levante concede 1.62/gm | Real Madrid Over 2.5 Goals |
| Shot Volume | Madrid 19.4 shots/gm; Levante 10.1 shots/gm | Over 3.5 Total Goals |
| Defensive Shape | Madrid 10 clean sheets; Levante 4 clean sheets | BTTS: Yes |
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Real Madrid to Win & Both Teams to Score
Real Madrid enter this fixture under the new leadership of Álvaro Arbeloa following a chaotic period that saw them exit two cup competitions in a single week. While their league form remains strong—sitting second in the table—their defensive stability is currently compromised. The absence of key personnel like Trent Alexander-Arnold and Éder Militão has left the backline vulnerable, evidenced by the five goals conceded across their last two matches.
Despite these defensive jitters, Madrid’s attacking output at the Bernabéu is relentless. They average 19.4 shots per game and have won eight of their nine home league matches. Kylian Mbappé is in elite form with 18 goals in 18 appearances, and with Vinícius Júnior and Jude Bellingham flanking him, the home side has the firepower to overwhelm a Levante side that is very weak at defending the wings and set pieces.
Levante sit 19th and are desperate for points, but they possess a specific tactical edge that could exploit Madrid’s current state. Levante are proficient at creating chances through through-balls, which is a designated weakness for this Madrid defense. With Madrid likely to commit bodies forward to make a statement for their new manager, the visitors will find space on the counter-attack.
Given that Madrid have been winning at both Half Time and Full Time in their last three league outings, expect them to dominate the scoring, but their inability to stop opponents from creating chances makes a clean sheet unlikely. The combination of Madrid’s high shot volume and Levante’s defensive fragility points toward a high-scoring home win where both sides find the net.
What could go wrong? Madrid’s recent losses to Barcelona and Albacete have dented their confidence. If Levante scores first and retreats into a deep block, Madrid’s high shot volume could turn into speculative, low-quality efforts, potentially leading to a frustrated draw or a narrow 1-0 result if the visitors fail to capitalize on their counter-attacking opportunities.
Correct Score Lean
Real Madrid 3-1 Levante
This scoreline aligns with Madrid’s average of over two goals per game and Levante’s defensive record of conceding 1.62 goals per match. Madrid’s dominance at the Bernabéu and Levante’s “very weak” rating in defending the wings suggests the hosts will score multiple times. However, Madrid’s injury-hit defense and Levante’s strength in through-ball attacks make a consolation goal for the 19th-placed side a high probability.
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