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Can Osasuna turn El Sadar into a problem again for Real Madrid’s title charge? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Real Madrid are chasing a ninth straight league win and boast superior attacking metrics, averaging 18.6 shots per game. However, Osasuna are clinical at home and strong on set pieces, making a clean sheet unlikely for the visitors despite their probable victory in this clash.
Read Rationale ▾
Osasuna are notoriously difficult to break down early, remaining unbeaten at half-time in 17 straight home matches. A narrow 2-1 win for Real Madrid aligns with Osasuna’s aerial strength and Budimir’s scoring form, while reflecting the league leaders’ relentless capacity to eventually find a winner.
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Estadio El Sadar has a way of tightening matches, raising the noise, and turning every tackle into a statement — and Osasuna arrive with enough momentum to believe they can make this awkward.
Osasuna vs Real Madrid — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Real Madrid’s 8-match win streak and superior points tally make them strong favourites despite Osasuna’s tough home defensive record.
Real Madrid’s massive shot volume of 18.6 per match suggests goals, even against Osasuna’s structured and steel-like home defence.
Osasuna’s half-time resilience and Budimir’s clinical nature suggest they can score, but Madrid’s quality often prevails 2-1 or 2-0.
Madrid’s 59.1% possession versus Osasuna’s 44.6% will define the game-state, forcing the hosts into a low-block transition strategy throughout.
Match Preview
Alessio Lisci has them moving in the right direction: three wins and two draws from their last five league outings, capped by a goalless draw at Elche last time out. But the visitors don’t do “awkward” for long. Álvaro Arbeloa’s Real Madrid are top of La Liga, two points clear of Barcelona, and they come here chasing a ninth straight league win. Kick-off is 17:30, and the mood feels simple: Osasuna want a European push, Real Madrid want to keep the title pace relentless.
Attacking Volume: Shots per League Match
The difference in offensive production highlights how Real Madrid dominate territory compared to Osasuna’s more conservative approach.
Osasuna rely on high-quality set-piece moments and Budimir’s aerial strength rather than high shot volume.
With nearly 19 shots per game, Madrid’s relentless pressure often forces opposition defences into critical errors.
Points Split: Home Strength vs Away Form
Osasuna have made El Sadar a fortress, but they face the division’s most successful side on their travels.
Their unbeaten half-time streak at home is a testament to how difficult they are to break down early.
The best away record in La Liga underlines their ability to handle hostile environments like El Sadar.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries & Absences
- Osasuna: I. Benito Sánchez (cruciate ligament tear) out until 01/07/2026.
- Real Madrid: No absences listed.
Osasuna Probable XI
Herrera; Rosier, Herrando, Catena, Galan; Torro, Moncayola; Ruben Garcia, V Munoz, Oroz; Budimir
Real Madrid Probable XI
Courtois; Alexander-Arnold, Asencio, Huijsen, Carreras; Valverde, Tchouameni, Camavinga; Guler; Mbappe, Vinicius
Tactical Implications
Osasuna’s shape looks built to spring from midfield into Ruben Garcia, V Muñoz and Aimar Oroz, with Ante Budimir as the reference point. That points to quick entries, crosses, and set-piece pressure rather than long spells on the ball. Real Madrid’s selection screams control and punch: Valverde–Tchouameni–Camavinga gives platform and power, while Arda Güler sits behind Kylian Mbappé and Vinícius Júnior to turn possession into direct threat.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (La Liga) | Osasuna | Real Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th | 1st |
| Points | 30 | 60 |
| Goals scored | 28 | 53 |
| Goals conceded | 28 | 19 |
| Shots per match | 10.8 | 18.6 |
| Possession | 44.6% | 59.1% |
| Pass accuracy | 79.1% | 89.5% |
Real Madrid’s numbers paint a match pattern: more ball, cleaner circulation, and far more shots. Osasuna’s profile is different — lower possession, lower pass accuracy, and a tighter goal difference — which often means living for moments: transitions, set pieces, and winning the physical second ball.
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
When Real Madrid have the ball: squeeze, rotate, then strike
Real Madrid’s style points to long phases camped in the opposition half: they control territory, keep the ball moving, and they take many shots. With 59.1% possession and 89.5% pass accuracy, they’re set up to probe until the first crack appears — and once it does, the pace jumps.
The big question is where the first crack comes from. Real Madrid’s attacking tendencies lean to the left, and that puts a spotlight on the channel where Vinícius Júnior likes to receive and drive. If Osasuna shuffle too slowly, the visitors can pin them back and force emergency defending in the box — exactly the kind of sequence that turns into rebounds, corners, and repeat attacks.
Arda Güler is a key connector here. With him in the line behind the strikers, Real Madrid can keep possession central and still slip runners through. Osasuna’s profile includes a weakness in keeping hold of the ball, so if they can’t clear their lines cleanly, Real Madrid can recycle and come again — and again.
When Osasuna have the ball: width, long passes, and delivery
Osasuna’s identity is clear: they play wide, use long passing, and they cross often. That immediately points to one main target: Ante Budimir, their top league scorer with 11 goals. If Osasuna are going to land a punch, it’s likely through early ball into the box, second balls around the penalty spot, and set-piece routines designed to turn El Sadar’s chaos into a clean chance.
That suits their strengths too. Osasuna are very strong in aerial duels and they’re very strong at shooting from set pieces, with a strong rating for attacking set pieces in general. Against a side that can dominate the ball, the most realistic route to danger is often dead-ball precision and ruthless timing on the leap.
The Midfield Wrestle
This is where the match can swing. Osasuna are aggressive, but Real Madrid are comfortable when opponents come at them — and they’re also strong at winning the ball back. If Osasuna press high and the first line gets played through, they risk being stretched. If they sit too deep, they invite waves of pressure and concede territory. Lisci’s best-case scenario is a middle block that blocks central access, forces play wide, and turns crosses into contests Osasuna fancy. But there’s a catch: Osasuna are rated weak at defending a lead. If they do score first, the second phase becomes mental as much as tactical — can they keep the same bravery without getting dragged into survival mode.
Quick Hits
- Home steel vs away swagger: Osasuna have taken 21 points from 11 home league matches, but Real Madrid have the division’s best away return with 27 points from 12.
- Shot volume mismatch: Osasuna average 10.8 shots per league match, while Real Madrid post 18.6 — a massive gap that shapes who spends the afternoon defending.
- Half-time trend alarm: Osasuna are unbeaten at half-time in their last 17 home matches in all competitions, while Real Madrid are also 17 straight unbeaten at half-time in league meetings with Osasuna.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces at both ends: Osasuna’s threat from dead balls is a genuine headline, while Real Madrid also rate strongly attacking set pieces and defending them. Corners and wide free-kicks could decide the “moment” game.
- Aerial battles in the box: Osasuna are very strong in the air, and Budimir gives them a constant target. If deliveries arrive early, Real Madrid’s defenders will be asked questions under pressure.
- The first 45 minutes: Osasuna’s home trend is loud — unbeaten at half-time in 17 straight home matches in all competitions. If they can keep it level early, the crowd ramps up and the fixture gets emotionally charged.
- Discipline and second balls: Both sides rack up plenty of defensive actions across the season totals, and this could turn into a stop-start scrap if Osasuna make it physical and deny rhythm.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result & Both Teams to Score (BTTS)
This market requires you to predict the winner of the match while also stating that both teams will find the net. It is a popular choice when a strong favourite is expected to win but has shown defensive vulnerability, or when the underdog has a clinical scoring record at home.
Pros: Higher odds than a simple win. Cons: A clean sheet for either side ruins the selection.
Correct Score
A high-precision market where you must predict the exact final scoreline. Because of the difficulty, the prices are significantly higher than other markets. It is often used to back a specific tactical narrative, such as a narrow win in a cagey encounter.
Pros: Large potential returns. Cons: High volatility; a single late goal can flip the result.
🎯 Real Madrid to Win & BTTS Rationale
Real Madrid arrive at El Sadar in formidable league form, seeking a ninth consecutive victory. Their statistical dominance is evident in their offensive output, where they average 18.6 shots per match compared to Osasuna’s 10.8. With the clinical finishing of Kylian Mbappé and the creative spark of Arda Güler, the league leaders possess enough individual quality to break down a resilient Osasuna block. Their 89.5% pass accuracy suggests they will control the tempo and territory for the majority of the afternoon.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Madrid average nearly 19 shots per match, creating constant pressure.
- Osasuna are clinical at home, taking 21 points from just 11 games.
- Ante Budimir provides a high-level aerial threat that tests any defensive line.
However, Osasuna are not easily brushed aside at home. They have been highly efficient at El Sadar, and the presence of Ante Budimir—who has 11 league goals—presents a specific challenge. Osasuna are exceptionally strong in aerial duels and attacking set pieces, areas where Madrid can occasionally be tested during transitions. Given Osasuna’s ability to find the net at home and Madrid’s focus on offensive pressure, a goal for both sides is a strong tactical possibility even in a Madrid victory.
Risk Factor: If Madrid establish an early two-goal lead, they may opt for defensive control, potentially stifling Osasuna’s attacking opportunities.
🎯 Real Madrid 2-1 Correct Score Rationale
A 2-1 scoreline reflects the likely competitive nature of this fixture. Osasuna’s most striking statistic is their half-time resilience; they are unbeaten at the break in their last 17 home matches. This suggests that Real Madrid will have to work hard for their goals, likely finding them in the second half or through sustained pressure. Osasuna’s capacity to stay in matches longer than most keeps scorelines respectable, even when facing the league’s top sides.
While Real Madrid have the league’s best away record, El Sadar is an environment designed to shrink margins. Osasuna’s tactical reliance on long passing and crossing plays into Budimir’s strengths, and one successful delivery is often all they need to score. Real Madrid’s quality should eventually prevail, but a single-goal margin like 2-1 captures the essence of a struggle between Madrid’s volume of chances and Osasuna’s physical and aerial defiance.
Risk Factor: A scoreless first half is statistically likely, which could lead to a lower-scoring 1-0 result if Madrid are uncharacteristically wasteful.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Strong rating for aerial duels and attacking set pieces, specifically targeting Budimir in the box.
Despite their dominance, they can be vulnerable to high-volume crossing when pinned back.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
⊕ What does ‘Real Madrid and BTTS’ mean?
This is a combination bet where you predict Real Madrid to win the match and both teams to score at least one goal. For the bet to be successful, scorelines like 2-1, 3-1, or 3-2 in favour of Madrid are required.
It is a popular way to increase the odds on a strong favourite when you expect the underdog to contribute to the scoreline.
⊕ How does the Correct Score market work?
In this market, you must predict the exact final score of the match at the end of regulation time. If you select 2-1, the game must end exactly 2-1 for the bet to win.
While difficult to predict, it offers much higher returns than standard match result betting.
⊕ Is Osasuna’s home form a factor in this game?
Yes, Osasuna have earned 21 of their 30 points at El Sadar this season. Their strength at home makes them a significantly tougher opponent than their league position suggests.
⊕ Who is Osasuna’s main goal threat?
Ante Budimir is the primary threat, having scored 11 goals in La Liga this season. His aerial ability is a central part of Osasuna’s attacking strategy.
⊕ What is Real Madrid’s current winning streak?
Real Madrid have won eight consecutive matches in La Liga. They currently sit at the top of the table with 60 points.
⊕ Why is the shot volume difference important?
Madrid average 18.6 shots per game compared to Osasuna’s 10.8. This suggests Madrid will have nearly double the opportunities to score during the match.
⊕ Does Osasuna start matches strongly at home?
Statistically, yes. Osasuna are unbeaten at half-time in their last 17 home matches across all competitions, indicating they are very difficult to break down early on.
⊕ What is a ‘Double Chance’ bet?
A Double Chance bet allows you to cover two of the three possible outcomes in a match. For example, ‘Osasuna or Draw’ would win if Osasuna either win the match or it ends in a stalemate.
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