Alaves vs Osasuna: Strong Starts Meet a Clear Home-Away Contrast. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Alaves have strong home form with four wins in six matches and three clean sheets in four at Mendizorrotza. Their defence has conceded just once in three league games, contrasting with Osasuna’s poor away record of five defeats in seven matches and seven consecutive away games without a clean sheet. This defensive edge and home momentum support an Alaves win.
Alaves have scored in 18 of their last 20 league matches and face an Osasuna side without a clean sheet in seven away games. Ante Budimir’s scoring form and recent 2-2 draw between these teams support Osasuna scoring once. This makes a 2-1 home win a credible exact scoreline despite a risk from low-scoring matches.
Alaves and Osasuna arrive at Mendizorrotza Stadium level on seven points after three La Liga matches, but their early records conceal a useful distinction.
Alaves vs Osasuna — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Alaves and Osasuna both have two wins in their last three matches, indicating competitive form.
Alaves and Osasuna arrive with similar form, leaving fine margins likely to decide the result.
Alaves have scored in all last three matches while Osasuna scored in two of their last three.
Alaves and Osasuna show similar overall levels, making execution more important than raw form.
Three Punchy Stats
- Alaves have conceded just one goal in their opening three league matches, giving them the best defensive return in the division at this stage.
- Osasuna have gone seven consecutive Primera Liga away games without keeping a clean sheet, a notable weakness against an Alaves side who have scored in 18 of their last 20 league fixtures.
- Alaves have won four of their last six home matches, while Osasuna have lost five of their last seven league away games — the clearest statistical contrast between two teams otherwise level on seven points.
Wins in Last 3 Matches
Recent attacking records for Alaves and Osasuna are shown below.
Matches Scored In Last 3
Recent defensive records for Alaves and Osasuna are shown below.
Alaves have already shown they can win with very little of the ball, while their defensive numbers at home make Osasuna’s recent struggles on the road particularly relevant.
Quique Sanchez Flores’s side have conceded only once in the league this season and followed victories over Getafe and Villarreal with a draw at Rayo Vallecano. Osasuna have been similarly effective, yet five defeats from their last seven league away matches give this fixture a different complexion from the near-identical league positions.
Alaves are proving they do not need control to win
The 1-0 victory over Villarreal was perhaps the clearest illustration of Alaves’ early resilience. They had only 24% possession but Lucas Boye’s 31st-minute goal was enough, with the hosts protecting that advantage for the remainder of the match.
That matters because Alaves’ start is not built solely on one defensive performance. They have allowed only one goal across three league games, while three clean sheets from their last four home fixtures suggest Mendizorrotza has become a difficult place to find space on the scoreboard.
Their attacking record provides some balance. Alaves have scored in 18 of their last 20 league matches and opened the campaign by putting three past Getafe. They are therefore showing two useful qualities at once: enough attacking threat to get ahead and a defence currently capable of making relatively small leads count.
Osasuna’s away record is the obvious pressure point
Osasuna have also conceded only twice in their opening three matches, taking seven points through a goalless draw with Levante and victories over Celta Vigo and Getafe. There is little in their current league position to separate them from Alaves.
The concern is what happens away from home. Five defeats in seven league trips is a substantial enough sequence to deserve attention, particularly when combined with seven consecutive Primera Liga away matches without a clean sheet.
That does not mean Osasuna have been defensively poor everywhere. Their 1-0 win over Getafe and opening 0-0 against Levante demonstrate the opposite. The issue is whether they can reproduce that resistance away against an Alaves side who have won four of their last six home matches.
Budimir and Diaz give both sides a direct scoring threat
Ante Budimir already has two goals this season and decided Osasuna’s latest victory with a penalty against Getafe. His early output is significant in a match where clear chances may be limited by Alaves’ defensive form.
Alaves could have a change in attack after Toni Martinez suffered an injury against Villarreal. Mariano Diaz is expected to come in and has scored twice in three league appearances, giving the hosts an in-form alternative rather than an obvious reduction in goal threat.
Valentin Rosier remains unavailable for Osasuna with a hamstring injury, while Ruben Garcia is expected to retain his place on the right. Alaves, meanwhile, are otherwise expected to remain close to the side that beat Villarreal, with Antonio Blanco operating in midfield.
Recent history offers less separation than the table
Osasuna hold the stronger overall record in this fixture, winning 27 of 51 previous meetings compared with 15 Alaves victories. The most recent encounter finished 2-2 in April, although current form points towards a tighter game: five of Alaves’ last seven league matches have produced fewer than three goals.
- Double Chance (Alaves or Draw): Covers two of the three possible match outcomes after 90 minutes, losing only on an Osasuna win at a shorter price.
- Both Teams to Score – YES: Settles as a win if both Alaves and Osasuna score at least once in normal time, regardless of which club wins or if the match ends in a draw.
📊 Market Explainer
Match Result Market
Selection: Alaves to Win. Choose the home win, draw or away win after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties are excluded from settlement.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Alaves vs Osasuna 2-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Alaves to Win @ 13/10
Alaves enter this fixture with strong home momentum that underpins their case for securing all three points at Mendizorrotza Stadium. Quique Sanchez Flores’s team have accumulated seven points from three matches while allowing just a single goal, establishing the best defensive return in the division at this early stage. At home, that defensive structure is supported by four victories from their last six league outings alongside three clean sheets in their last four. Their 1-0 victory against Villarreal demonstrated an ability to protect narrow leads, holding out with just 24% possession after Lucas Boye scored in the 31st minute.
This solid home record collides directly with Osasuna’s primary weakness on the road. Although Osasuna match Alaves on seven points after victories over Celta Vigo and Getafe, five defeats from their last seven league away trips highlight a distinct drop in output away from home. Furthermore, Osasuna have now gone seven consecutive Primera Liga away fixtures without maintaining a clean sheet. Facing an Alaves side that has scored in 18 of their last 20 league encounters, Osasuna’s defensive record away from home presents a clear vulnerability for the hosts to exploit.
Osasuna remain competitive through Ante Budimir, who already has two goals this season, and an overall defence that conceded only twice in three games. However, with Valentin Rosier sidelined by a hamstring injury and Mariano Diaz stepping in for the injured Toni Martinez after scoring twice in three appearances, Alaves have the scoring threat and defensive platform to earn the home win.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Alaves have conceded only one goal in three La Liga matches this season, keeping three clean sheets in their last four home games.
- Osasuna have suffered five defeats in their last seven league away matches and are on a seven-game away run without a clean sheet.
- Alaves have won four of their last six home fixtures and have scored in 18 of their last 20 league outings.
Risk Factor: Alaves won with just 24% possession; if Osasuna control midfield and force a low-volume game, a draw loses the bet.
Key Tactical Mismatch
1 goal conceded in 3 games; 3 clean sheets in last 4 home league matches and 4 wins from last 6 at Mendizorrotza.
5 defeats in last 7 away league games and 0 clean sheets across 7 consecutive Primera Liga away trips.
⚔️ Pick 2: Alaves vs Osasuna 2-1 @ 15/2
Selecting a 2-1 home victory requires clear factual evidence supporting two goals for Alaves and one for Osasuna. Alaves have demonstrated a consistent ability to find the net, scoring in 18 of their last 20 league matches and netting three goals against Getafe in their opening stretch. With Mariano Diaz scoring twice in three appearances and Lucas Boye already on the scoreline this season, the hosts possess active goalscorers. They face an Osasuna side that has failed to keep a clean sheet in seven consecutive Primera Liga away matches, providing a strong factual basis for Alaves scoring at least twice.
Conversely, justifying an Osasuna goal relies on the form of Ante Budimir and recent head-to-head precedent. Budimir has already scored twice this season, including a decisive penalty against Getafe, demonstrating his capacity to capitalise on limited opportunities. Additionally, the most recent meeting between these two clubs finished in a 2-2 draw in April, confirming that Osasuna can breach the Alaves defence even while suffering from away defensive lapses.
While five of Alaves’ last seven league fixtures have yielded under 2.5 goals, Osasuna’s sequence of seven away games without a clean sheet makes a 2-0 shutout less likely than a narrow 2-1 outcome. The main risk to this precise scoreline is a single goal in either direction, as an unexpected clean sheet for Alaves or an additional away strike would immediately void the selection.
Risk Factor: Five of Alaves' last seven league matches had under 2.5 goals, risking a 1-0 or 1-1 result for this bet.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does backing Alaves to Win mean in betting?
Your bet wins if Alaves lead after 90 minutes plus stoppage time; draws or Osasuna wins lose.
How does the Correct Score market settle for Alaves vs Osasuna?
It wins only if the final score is exactly Alaves 2, Osasuna 1 after 90 minutes plus injury time.
Why is Alaves' home form significant for this selection?
Alaves have won four of their last six home games and kept three clean sheets in their last four at Mendizorrotza.
Does Osasuna's away record support the predictions?
Yes, Osasuna have lost five of their last seven away games and failed to keep a clean sheet in seven straight away matches.
How does injury news affect the attacking options for Alaves?
Toni Martinez is injured, but Mariano Diaz is expected to start after scoring twice in three appearances.
Can Ante Budimir score for Osasuna despite Alaves' strong defence?
Ante Budimir has scored twice this season, including a decisive penalty against Getafe, providing a scoring threat.
