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Will the Turia derby tension boil over as Levante and Valencia fight for La Liga survival? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Levante’s defensive record is the joint-worst in the league, conceding 38 goals. Despite Valencia’s recent poor form, their superior possession (48.2%) and wing play should allow them to dominate territory. Levante’s struggle defending set pieces (Valencia average 5.14 corners) makes a visitors’ result highly probable in this derby.
Read Rationale ▾
Levante score more goals than Valencia (26 vs 23) but defend poorly. Valencia keep possession well but struggle for clinical finishes. With both teams fighting relegation, a cautious stalemate is likely. Valencia’s strength on the wings and Levante’s through-ball threat suggest both can find the net once.
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A derby already brings noise, but add a relegation scrap and it turns into a pressure cooker. Levante host Valencia at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia with both teams desperate for points near the drop.
Levante vs Valencia — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Explore the Turia derby betting landscape with key data points and illustrative BetMGM pricing.
Levante’s joint-worst defensive record is offset by Valencia’s recent poor form, creating a high-stakes encounter with narrow margins.
Levante have conceded 38 goals in 22 games, making defensive stability a major issue against Valencia’s high corner volume.
Given both sides sit just above the drop zone, a point apiece in a cagey derby feels statistically probable.
Valencia average 5.14 corners per match, which tests Levante’s known weakness in defending set-piece situations.
Match Preview
- Levante’s defensive headache: Levante have conceded 38 goals in 22 league matches — joint-worst in the division — and they’ve taken just seven points from 10 home games.
- Valencia’s problem isn’t scoring — it’s survival: Valencia sit 17th with 23 points, only one point above 18th, and they’ve just suffered three straight defeats in all competitions.
- Corners and pressure coming: Valencia average 5.14 corners per game (144 total), compared to Levante’s 3.56, and they also create more dangerous attacks (42.96 vs 37.44 per game).
Match Keys: Defensive Record and Corner Volume
Levante’s high concession rate meets Valencia’s consistent ability to win set pieces in the Turia derby.
This defensive total is the joint-worst in the division, highlighting significant issues protecting the box.
Valencia’s total of 144 corners creates recurring pressure, particularly against a side struggling with set-piece defence.
Territorial Control: Possession Metrics
Valencia typically keep more of the ball, which allows them to work the flanks and stretch opposition defences.
Levante spend less time in possession, preferring direct long passes and quick through-ball transitions.
A derby already brings noise. Add a relegation scrap and it turns into a pressure cooker. Levante host Valencia at the Estadio Ciudad de Valencia with the table screaming urgency: Levante are 19th with 18 points, while Valencia sit 17th with 23 — only a point above the drop. Kick-off is 17:30, and there’s no hiding from what’s at stake.
Levante have shown flashes going forward, but they keep paying for defensive lapses. Valencia arrive needing a reset after a rough run, yet their wider play and set-piece pressure can make any match feel like a long siege. The last league meeting ended Valencia 1-0 Levante in November — and with emotions high and margins tiny, this has all the ingredients for a tight, edgy Turia derby.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Levante
- R. Brugué Ayguadé (outer ligament tear, out until 01/03/2026)
Valencia
No injuries or suspensions listed.
Probable Lineups
Levante (possible XI): Ryan; Moreno, Dela, Elgezabal, Sanchez; Andres, Raghouber; Tunde, Alvarez, Romero; Eyong
Valencia (possible XI): Dimitrievski; Correia, Comert, Nunez, Gaya; Rioja, Pepelu, Ugrinic, Guerra; Duro, Beltran
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (La Liga) | Levante | Valencia |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th | 17th |
| Points | 18 | 23 |
| Games played | 22 | 23 |
| Goals scored | 26 | 23 |
| Goals conceded | 38 | 37 |
| Shots per game | 10.6 | 11.3 |
| Possession | 41.1% | 48.2% |
| Pass accuracy | 78.1% | 81.6% |
| Clean sheets (all comps) | 5 | 8 |
| Corners (total / per game) | 89 / 3.56 | 144 / 5.14 |
| Yellow cards (total / per game) | 52 / 2.08 | 55 / 1.96 |
Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Levante: Direct, Daring, and a Bit Wild
Luís Castro’s Levante can hurt you in the final third. They attempt through balls, hit long passes, and aren’t shy about shooting — it’s not a slow-build side. The problem is the flip side: they’re weak at keeping possession, weak at stopping chances, and very weak defending set pieces and wide attacks.
That creates a familiar derby pattern: Levante want to land quick punches, especially through runners like Carlos Álvarez (3 goals) and the strikers Eyong and Romero. But every misplaced pass can hand Valencia territory — and territory turns into corners, throw-ins, and pressure waves.
Valencia: Width, Structure, and Box Occupation
Carlos Corberán’s Valencia are at their best when they play with width and stretch the pitch. They keep the ball better (48.2% possession, 81.6% pass accuracy) and they work the flanks hard — which matters because Levante’s wide defending is a major issue.
Look for Valencia to funnel attacks into crossing positions and force Levante into repeated defensive actions. José Gayà on one side and the wide midfield options like Rioja can keep the ball moving until a gap opens. Inside the box, Hugo Duro gives them a proper goal threat, while Beltrán links play and pulls defenders around.
Key Moments to Watch
- Early Levante transitions: If Álvarez, Romero and Eyong can run beyond quickly, Valencia’s weakness against through balls gets tested immediately.
- Valencia’s wide pressure: Valencia attack down the wings and Levante struggle badly out wide — expect overlaps, crosses, and constant box entries.
- Set-piece sequences: Levante’s set-piece defending is a glaring issue, while Valencia generate a high corner count and keep returning to the same zones.
- Discipline in dangerous areas: Levante average 12.28 fouls and 2.08 yellows per game in the match list; cheap fouls can turn into long spells pinned back.
- Goalkeeper influence: Levante’s Mathew Ryan carries a strong rating (6.93) and could be busy if Valencia’s pressure sticks.
What Could Go Wrong?
Derbies don’t follow scripts — and both sides have a wobble in them. Levante can create chances but struggle to protect a lead, and their defensive issues can unravel quickly if Valencia score first and start racking up corners. Valencia, though, are living on fine margins in 17th and have just hit a run of defeats — one sloppy moment defending a through ball, and the whole mood flips. One goal can change everything here, because neither team has the comfort of control right now.
📊 Turia Derby Analysis: Market Insights & Tactical Rationales
Double Chance: Definition
The Double Chance market allows you to cover two of the three possible match outcomes in a single bet. For instance, “Valencia and Draw” wins if Valencia win the game OR if the match ends in a draw.
Pros: Higher probability of success as it covers 66% of outcomes. Cons: Lower odds compared to a straight win.
Correct Score: Definition
This market requires predicting the exact final scoreline after 90 minutes plus injury time. It is a high-volatility market because a single late goal can change everything.
Pros: High potential returns. Cons: High risk due to the precision required.
🎯 Pick 1: Valencia and Draw (Double Chance)
Analysing the defensive stability of both sides suggests that Valencia are better positioned to avoid defeat in this derby. Levante currently possess the joint-worst defensive record in La Liga, having conceded 38 goals in just 22 fixtures. This fragility at the back is particularly evident during set-piece situations, which aligns poorly with Valencia’s attacking strengths. Carlos Corberán’s side average 5.14 corners per game, and their ability to generate 144 corners this season indicates they will exert sustained pressure on a Levante unit that struggles to defend wide areas and crosses.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators:
- Levante have conceded 38 goals, the highest volume in the division.
- Valencia maintain superior territorial control with 48.2% possession and 81.6% pass accuracy.
- Valencia’s corner volume (5.14 per game) directly exploits Levante’s set-piece weakness.
Risk Factor: Levante’s direct through-ball transitions and quick runners like Karl Etta Eyong (5 goals) can punish Valencia’s known weakness in defending through balls if the visitors commit too many bodies forward.
🎯 Pick 2: Correct Score 1-1
The relegation context of this Turia derby points towards a high-tension stalemate where neither side can afford to lose. Statistically, Levante have actually been more prolific than Valencia this season, scoring 26 goals to Valencia’s 23. However, their defensive lapses mean they rarely keep clean sheets. Valencia, while more structured with the ball, have struggled for clinical finishes recently, suffering three straight defeats. A 1-1 draw reflects the balance between Levante’s attacking threat from through balls and Valencia’s dominance in crossing and corners.
Risk Factor: In derbies, early red cards or late lapses in discipline—given Levante average 2.08 yellow cards per match—can open up the game-state and lead to a higher scoreline than predicted.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Averaging 5.14 corners per match. Constant pressure through high-volume crossing and dead-ball situations.
Joint-worst defence with 38 goals conceded. Highly vulnerable to sustained pressure and second balls in the area.
❓ Levante vs Valencia Q&A
⊕ What is a Double Chance bet for this derby?
A Double Chance bet covers two out of three match outcomes, such as a Valencia win or a draw. By choosing Valencia and Draw, your bet wins as long as Levante do not win the game.
⊕ Why is a 1-1 correct score predicted?
This scoreline reflects the attacking capabilities of Levante (26 goals) and the territorial control of Valencia. Given both sides are struggling near the relegation zone, a draw is a frequent outcome in high-pressure matches.
⊕ How does Levante’s defence affect the betting markets?
Levante’s defence is the joint-worst in La Liga with 38 goals conceded. This vulnerability makes markets like “Both Teams to Score” or Valencia-related goals markets more appealing to analysts.
⊕ What is the significance of corner stats in this match?
Valencia average 5.14 corners per game, while Levante struggle to defend set pieces. High corner counts often lead to increased scoring chances for the attacking team.
⊕ Who are the main goal threats for Levante?
Karl Etta Eyong is the top scorer with 5 league goals, followed by Iván Romero with 4. They rely on direct through balls to exploit opposition defensive lines.
⊕ Does Valencia’s possession style help them in derbies?
Valencia’s 48.2% possession and 81.6% pass accuracy allow them to control the tempo. In a high-pressure derby, keeping the ball can help frustrate a direct team like Levante.
⊕ What happens if I bet on Draw No Bet for Valencia?
With “Draw No Bet,” your stake is returned if the match ends in a draw. You only win if Valencia win the game outright.
⊕ Are there any major injuries affecting the Turia derby?
Levante are missing Roger Brugué due to a ligament tear. Valencia have no reported injuries or suspensions, giving them a full squad to choose from.
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