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Can Levante halt the slide at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia against stubborn Alavés? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Levante are in freefall after four consecutive league defeats and have the worst home record in La Liga. Alaves possess superior aerial strength and better game control, averaging 50.5% possession. Given Levante’s defensive fragility on set pieces and lack of goals, Alaves represent significant value to win.
Read Rationale ▾
Levante have failed to score in their last three league outings, while Alaves are strong at defending leads once ahead. In a high-stakes survival battle, a single goal often decides the outcome. Alaves’ aerial dominance at set pieces provides a clear route to a narrow, disciplined away victory.
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Levante chase a response after four straight losses as Alavés arrive with aerial threat and wide width. Pressure hits at both ends in this survival-grade contest.
Levante vs Alaves — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with sample BetMGM odds based on match analysis.
Levante’s worst home record in the league and four straight losses suggest Alaves have a clear tactical advantage in the win market.
Levante’s failure to score in three league games makes the Under 2.5 market highly probable for this relegation six-pointer.
Given Levante’s drought and Alaves’ physicality, a 1-0 away victory aligns with current form and tactical mismatch trends.
Alaves win 16.5 aerial duels per game, targeting Levante’s known weakness in defending set-pieces and high crosses effectively.
Key Performance Indicators
- Home form alarm bells: Levante have the worst home record in La Liga, taking 7 points from 12 matches with just one win, and they’ve lost their last two at home without scoring.
- Goal drought meets a leaky back line: Levante have failed to score in their last 3 league games, yet they’ve still conceded 44 goals in 25 — pressure hits at both ends.
- Alavés’ game control edge: Alavés average 50.5% possession to Levante’s 41.4%, and win more aerial duels (16.5 per game vs 12.9) — they can dictate where the battle happens.
Game Control: Possession & Aerial Command
Alaves hold a statistical advantage in maintaining the ball and winning high-frequency aerial duels.
Alaves find more joy in dictating the tempo compared to Levante’s lower average of 41.4%.
The visitors’ dominance in the air is a primary route to goal against a fragile defensive unit.
Defensive Metrics: Goals Conceded Comparison
Conceding 1.76 goals per match on average has been the root of Levante’s current slide.
Alaves arrive with a more disciplined defensive record, which often decides tight survival battles.
Match Preview
Levante walk into Friday night with the table screaming at them. They’re 19th on 18 points, seven behind 17th-placed Elche, and the form has turned nasty: four straight La Liga defeats since that late-January spell of beating Elche and drawing with Atlético Madrid. The last three league games have brought zero goals — and that silence in the net is now the loudest sound inside Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
Alavés arrive 14th with 27 points, only three above the relegation line, so they’re not here for sightseeing. Under Eduardo Coudet, they’ve mixed results lately, including a 2-2 draw with Girona and a road win at Espanyol. Kick-off is at 20:00, and the mood is survival-grade tense.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Levante
Out: R. Brugué Ayguadé (outer ligament tear, out until 01.03.2026)
Out: U. Elgezabal Udondo (meniscus tear)
Probable Levante XI: Ryan; Toljan, Dela, Matturro, Sanchez; Rey, Olasagasti; Tunde, Alvarez, V Garcia; Romero
What it means: Losing Elgezabal hits a back line that already looks fragile, especially on dead balls. With Brugué out too, Levante’s attacking options thin out at exactly the moment they need sharpness to end that three-game scoring blank.
Alavés
No confirmed absences were listed for Alavés.
Probable Alavés XI: Sivera; Otto, Tenaglia, Parada, Yusi; Perez, Ibanez, Blanco, Alena; Martinez, Boye
What it means: That XI leans into structure and physicality. Antonio Blanco anchors the middle, while Lucas Boyé and Toni Martínez give Alavés two proper reference points to play into — especially if the match becomes direct and scruffy.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (La Liga) | Levante | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| Position | 19th | 14th |
| Points | 18 (25 played) | 27 (25 played) |
| Goals scored | 26 | 23 |
| Goals conceded | 44 | 32 |
| Shots per game | 10.6 | 11.8 |
| Possession | 41.4% | 50.5% |
| Pass accuracy | 78.6% | 81.0% |
| Aerial duels won | 12.9 | 16.5 |
What the numbers hint at: Alavés should have more of the ball and more control of the “second ball” battles. Levante are likely to see less possession, which makes their decision-making in transition vital — but they’ve been struggling to turn moments into goals.
Tactical Battle
Levante’s problem: territory without security
Levante’s style leans towards long passes, frequent through balls, and plenty of shots — but it’s happening from a low starting point. They often play in their own half, and they’re weak at keeping possession. That combination can be poisonous: you invite pressure, you give the ball away, and suddenly you’re defending waves.
The soft spots are clear and brutal. Levante are very weak defending set pieces and very weak against attacks down the flanks, while also struggling to defend counter-attacks and through balls. If Alavés can pin the full-backs, Levante’s back line gets stretched until gaps appear in the channels. That’s where the game can unravel quickly.
The attacking question is just as sharp. With no goals in three league games, Levante need Iván Romero to turn half-chances into proper chances, and they need Carlos Álvarez to connect the midfield to the front line. If the ball keeps flying over them, Levante will feel like two separate teams.
Alavés’ route: width, aerial power, and game management
Alavés bring a clearer platform. They’re comfortable playing with width, often attacking from the right, and they’ve got a genuine edge in aerial duels. That matters against a side that struggles badly on set pieces. If Alavés turn corners and wide free kicks into repeat pressure, Levante’s nerves will be tested all night.
There’s a caveat for the visitors: Alavés are weak at defending counter-attacks and can be sloppy with fouls in dangerous zones. That’s the door Levante have to kick in. Win it, play forward early, and make Alavés run towards their own goal rather than posting up in Levante’s box.
Key Zones and Game Scenarios
If Alavés score first, they have a strength Levante don’t: they’re strong at defending the lead. Levante’s weakness defending the lead tells its own story — they can’t afford to chase this game from behind.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set pieces at both ends: Levante’s defending of dead balls is a major risk area, while Alavés are strong from set plays and strong in the air — expect repeat deliveries and chaos in the six-yard box.
- Wide overloads: Levante struggle defending attacks down the flanks; Alavés want width and often go down the right. Watch how often Levante’s full-backs get dragged into 1v2s.
- Foul management: Alavés are very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas. If Levante can win free kicks around the box, they get a rare chance to create without open-play fluency.
- First 20 minutes: Levante’s confidence is fragile after four straight losses. A fast Alavés start can turn the stadium anxious; a Levante early chance can flip the mood.
What could go wrong?
For Levante, one nervous clearance or one cheap corner can turn into a disaster — they’ve already been punished too often from set pieces and wide attacks. For Alavés, over-committing to width can open the counter lane, and a single through ball can put Romero in on goal. In a relegation-tinged fixture, control is priceless — but it’s never guaranteed.
Market Explainer
Match Result (1X2)
This market requires you to predict the outcome of the match at the end of 90 minutes. You can select a Home Win (1), a Draw (X), or an Away Win (2). It is a high-liquidity market but offers no protection if the game ends in a stalemate.
Other opportunities: Double Chance (protects against two outcomes but at lower odds) or Draw No Bet (refunds stake if the game is tied).
Correct Score
This market involves predicting the exact final scoreline of the game. Due to the high number of possible outcomes, it offers significantly higher prices but carries more volatility as a single late goal can ruin the selection.
Other opportunities: Correct Score Group Betting (covers multiple scores like 1-0, 2-0, 2-1) to reduce risk at the cost of price.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 16.5 duels per match. Alaves utilize width and high crossing volume to exploit smaller defensive units.
Levante are very weak at defending set pieces and flank attacks, conceding 44 goals so far this season.
🎯 Pick 1: Alaves to Win
Tactical Indicators:
- Levante have lost four consecutive La Liga matches.
- Alaves average significantly higher possession (50.5% vs 41.4%).
- Levante possess the worst home record in the entire division.
Alaves enter this fixture as the side with a far more stable platform. They possess a clear advantage in game control, maintaining the ball for over half the match on average, which allows them to dictate where the battle occurs. In contrast, Levante struggle with possession and frequently give the ball away, inviting sustained pressure. This is particularly dangerous given that the home side has the worst record at their own ground in La Liga, collecting just seven points from twelve matches.
The visitors’ physicality will be a deciding factor. Alaves win 16.5 aerial duels per game compared to Levante’s 12.9, providing them with a route to goal via set pieces—a known area of extreme weakness for the hosts. With Levante missing key defender Elgezabal, their back line is even more vulnerable to high crosses and corners. The lack of goal-scoring threat from Levante, who have failed to find the net in three straight games, makes the away win highly plausible.
Risk Factor: Alaves are known to be vulnerable to counter-attacks, and Levante’s use of through balls could create chances if the visitors over-commit.
🎯 Pick 2: Alaves 1-0 Correct Score
In a relegation-tinged battle at the bottom of the table, matches are frequently decided by fine margins and a single moment of quality. Levante’s offensive silence is the most telling factor here; they have failed to score in their last three league outings. While they have conceded 44 goals this season, they often remain competitive in the early stages before a defensive lapse—typically from a set piece or a cross—costs them the game.
Alaves are statistically strong at defending a lead once they have established it. Their disciplined structure under Eduardo Coudet relies on wide overloads and physicality. Given that Alaves win more aerial battles and have better pass accuracy, they are equipped to manage a narrow lead through to the final whistle. A 1-0 scoreline reflects a match where the home side’s lack of sharpness meets a visitors’ side that values structural stability over pure chaos.
Risk Factor: Levante’s fragility means they could concede multiple times if an early goal causes their confidence to collapse entirely.
⚔️ Match Q&A
⊕How does the Match Result (1X2) market work?
You select whether the home team wins, the away team wins, or the game ends in a draw. It is the most common way to back a specific winner in 90 minutes.
⊕What does ‘Correct Score’ mean in betting?
Correct score requires you to predict the exact final result of the match. It offers higher prices because it is much harder to get exactly right compared to a simple win/loss bet.
⊕Why is Alaves considered the stronger side here?
They have 27 points to Levante’s 18 and win more aerial duels and possession. They also have a sturdier defence, conceding 12 fewer goals than their opponents.
⊕How does Levante’s home form impact this match?
Levante have the worst home record in La Liga, winning only once in 12 games. This home disadvantage suggests they struggle to handle the pressure at Estadio Ciudad de Valencia.
⊕Can Alaves handle the pressure of defending a lead?
Facts show Alaves are strong at defending leads once they are ahead. Their ability to win second balls and aerial duels helps them clear their lines under pressure.
⊕Why are set pieces expected to be vital?
Levante are very weak at defending dead balls, while Alaves are strong in the air. This creates a high-probability route to goal for the visiting side.
⊕What is the significance of Levante’s goal drought?
Levante haven’t scored in three league games, which suggests their confidence in the final third is broken. This makes high-scoring outcomes less likely.
⊕Which player is the main threat for Levante?
Iván Romero is the primary focal point for Levante. They need him to connect with Carlos Álvarez to find a way through the Alaves defensive structure.
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Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT | Editorial Policy
