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Atleti at home again — can Mallorca survive the Metropolitano squeeze? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Atletico possess the best home record in the league, winning 28 points from 10 matches at the Metropolitano. Facing a Mallorca side that has conceded 30 goals this season, Atleti’s superior possession and shot volume should secure a comfortable victory with multiple goals on the board.
Read Rationale ▾
While Atletico are dominant at home, they are weak at protecting leads and defending through balls. Mallorca’s Vedat Muriqi is a massive aerial threat who can exploit these lapses. A 2-1 result reflects Atleti’s offensive power while acknowledging their tendency to concede late against direct opponents.
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Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca Predictions and Best Bets
Atleti vs Mallorca — BetMGM Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with implied probabilities and sample BetMGM odds based on match data.
Atleti’s unbeaten home streak of 14 games translates to heavy favouritism in the 90-minute market.
Price points suggest a multi-goal victory for the hosts is the most realistic expectation at the Metropolitano.
With 35 goals scored by Atleti and 30 conceded by Mallorca, markets imply an open contest.
- Home Fortress Mode: Atlético have the best home record in La Liga this season with 28 points from 10 matches, and they’re unbeaten in 14 straight league home games.
- Muriqi Is The Entire Problem: Mallorca have scored 24 league goals, and Vedat Muriqi has 14 of them — that’s the focal point, the outlet, and the aerial threat rolled into one.
- Game-State Warning Light: Atlético’s 4-4-2 has scored 24 and conceded 9 across 12 league matches, but their weaknesses include protecting the lead (Very Weak) — the late phase matters here.
Attacking Volume: Total Goals Scored
A comparison of total league goals highlights the offensive gap between the top four and the lower half of the table.
With 1.75 goals per game, the hosts maintain high pressure through consistent shot volume and elite conversion.
Over 58% of these goals have come from a single source, reflecting a heavy reliance on direct aerial service.
Tactical Edge: Aerial Duels Won
Mallorca’s primary route to goal is built on winning physical battles in the air, a metric where they outperform the hosts.
This physical presence allows them to bypass midfield pressure and secure high-value box entries.
Atleti focus on ground-based circulation and short passing, prioritising technical control over long-ball duels.
Sunday afternoon at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano has a familiar feel: Atlético Madrid hunting another league win, Mallorca arriving with points at a premium. Diego Simeone’s side sit fourth on 41 points after 20 matches — level with Villarreal — and they’ve got enough momentum to keep the pressure on above them.
Mallorca, managed by Jagoba Arrasate, are 15th and only two points outside the relegation zone, with 21 points from 20. That’s the tension: Atlético looking up, Mallorca glancing down — and the pitch in Madrid rarely hands out favours.
Team News & Lineups
Injuries / absences
- Atlético Madrid: Clément Lenglet (inner ligament injury, out until 01.03.2026)
- Mallorca: No injuries/suspensions listed
Probable Lineups
Atlético Madrid:
Oblak; Llorente, Hancko, Pubill, Ruggeri; G. Simeone, Cardoso, Barrios, Baena; Sørloth, Julián Alvarez
Mallorca:
Román; Maffeo, Valjent, Raíllo, Mojica; Sánchez, Mascarell, Costa, Darder; Virgili, Muriqi
What it implies
Atlético’s shape looks built for control and quick punches: solid base, wide thrust, two forwards who shoot often. Lenglet’s absence narrows Simeone’s options at the back, so the balance between aggression and protection becomes even more delicate.
Mallorca’s XI screams structure first, then directness — with Muriqi as the clear end-point, and Virgili and Darder key to supplying him.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Atlético Madrid | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 15th |
| Points | 41 | 21 |
| La Liga goals scored | 35 | 24 |
| La Liga goals conceded | 17 | 30 |
| Shots per game (La Liga) | 13.4 | 10.6 |
| Possession (La Liga) | 53.3% | 44.6% |
| Pass accuracy (La Liga) | 85.8% | 79.3% |
| Aerials won (La Liga) | 15.0 | 16.1 |
What the numbers hint at
This looks like Atlético dictating territory: more of the ball, cleaner passing, more shots. Mallorca’s edge is in the air — and that’s not a side note when Muriqi averages 4.4 aerials won and Atlético lean into wing attacks that can invite clearances, set-pieces, and second balls.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Atlético’s plan: circulate, then strike
Atlético’s profile is clear. They play short passes, lean into possession football, and attack down the right — all while carrying a serious counter-attacking bite. In La Liga they’re producing 13.4 shots per game with 53.3% possession, which is exactly the platform Simeone wants: set the scene, then land the punch.
The front pairing is where it gets loud. Julián Alvarez has 7 league goals and averages 2.1 shots per game, while Alexander Sørloth has 6 and brings the aerial muscle (2.9 aerials won). If Mallorca defend deep, that’s two different problems: Alvarez can shoot early and often, and Sørloth can turn wide service into chaos.
Mallorca’s plan: survive the ball, win the moments
Mallorca sit at 44.6% possession with 79.3% pass accuracy — not numbers that suggest a day of calm build-up. Their style leans into long balls, playing in their own half, and width, attacking down the left.
That sets up a very specific route: absorb pressure, then go direct into Muriqi. He’s not just their top scorer — he’s their system. 14 league goals is a massive chunk of their 24 total, and his 2.9 shots per game tells you he gets chances even when Mallorca aren’t dominating the ball.
Where the match tilts
The most obvious clash is wide. Atlético are strong attacking down the wings; Mallorca are weak defending against attacks down the wings. That’s a flashing sign for overlaps, deliveries, and cut-backs — especially with Atlético’s passing security and sustained pressure.
But there’s a sting in the tail: Atlético are weak defending against through balls and very weak at protecting the lead. Mallorca’s strengths include coming back from losing positions. If Atlético get in front and start managing the game rather than finishing it, this can turn into a late scramble — the kind of match where one direct pass, one second ball, one set-piece changes the temperature instantly.
Key Moments to Watch
- The first wave: Atlético average 98.67 total attacks per game and 53.37 dangerous attacks — if Mallorca can’t slow that rhythm early, it becomes a siege.
- Wing deliveries vs box defending: Mallorca’s weakness against wide attacks meets Atlético’s wing strength. Watch for repeated crosses and the second-ball battle around the edge of the area.
- The Muriqi aerial duel: Mallorca win 16.1 aerials per game, and Muriqi leads the line in that department. If he pins centre-backs and wins knockdowns, Mallorca can live in Atlético’s half for spells without “having” the ball.
- Discipline and stoppages: Mallorca average 2.09 yellow cards per game (48 total), Atlético 1.67 (50 total). If it gets fractious, set-pieces and box entries multiply.
What could go wrong?
For Atlético, the danger is game-state. They’re strong at creating chances, but they’ve shown vulnerability in protecting the lead. If they dominate, don’t convert, then loosen their grip late on, Mallorca’s direct route to Muriqi can turn one moment into a problem — especially with Mallorca’s knack for responding when they’ve fallen behind.
Best Bet for Atletico Madrid vs Mallorca
Can Mallorca Survive the Metropolitano Squeeze?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Home Form | Atleti: 28 pts from 10 home games | Back Atleti Win |
| Attack | Atleti: 35 goals; Mallorca: 24 goals | Over 1.5 Goals |
| Aerials | Mallorca: 16.1 won/gm; Atleti: 15.0 | Mallorca Goals |
| Defending | Atleti: 17 conceded; Mallorca: 30 | Atleti -1 Handicap |
Atletico Madrid to Win & Over 1.5 Goals
Atletico Madrid have transformed the Riyadh Air Metropolitano into a genuine fortress. They currently hold the best home record in La Liga, accumulating 28 points from just 10 matches. This dominance is backed by an unbeaten streak of 14 straight league home games. When playing in front of their own fans, Simeone’s side dictates the rhythm, maintaining 53.3% possession and unleashing 13.4 shots per game. This high-pressure environment is exactly what a struggling Mallorca side will find difficult to withstand.
The visitors arrive in Madrid sitting 15th and precariously close to the relegation zone. Their defensive numbers are a major concern; they have conceded 30 goals in 20 matches. This means they are facing an Atletico attack that has already notched 35 goals this campaign. The tactical matchup heavily favors the hosts, particularly on the wings. Atletico are specialized in attacking down the flanks, a known area of weakness for Mallorca’s defensive structure. With Julian Alvarez (7 goals) and Alexander Sørloth (6 goals) leading the line, Atletico have the variety in attack to break down Mallorca’s low block.
Furthermore, the game-state dynamics point toward multiple goals. Mallorca’s entire offensive strategy revolves around Vedat Muriqi, who has scored 14 of the team’s 24 league goals. His aerial prowess (4.4 aerials won per game) means Mallorca are always a threat to snatch a goal, even when they aren’t dominating possession. Given that Atletico are statistically weak at protecting leads, they often need a second goal to secure the three points. This combination of Atleti’s home supremacy and Mallorca’s defensive leaks makes the “Win & Over 1.5 Goals” market the most logical play.
What could go wrong? Atletico have shown a significant “Very Weak” rating when it comes to protecting leads. If they score early and retreat into a defensive shell, they invite Mallorca to go direct to Muriqi. Mallorca’s ability to win 16.1 aerials per game means they only need one well-placed long ball or set-piece to equalize and potentially frustrate the hosts into a low-scoring draw.
Correct Score Lean
Atletico Madrid 2-1 Mallorca
This scoreline balances Atletico’s overwhelming home form with their defensive vulnerabilities. Atletico average nearly two goals per game at the Metropolitano, and with Mallorca conceding 1.5 goals per match on average, two home goals is the baseline expectation. However, Mallorca are not completely toothless. Vedat Muriqi is responsible for over half of their league goals and thrives on the direct service that often troubles Atletico’s backline. Since Atletico are weak at defending through balls and protecting leads, a late consolation or equalizer from Mallorca is highly probable, resulting in a narrow but decisive home victory.
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