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Can Alavés survive Atlético’s home squeeze and turn this into a street fight? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Atlético are unbeaten at home and score 2+ goals regularly, while Alavés have lost three straight away games by 2+ goals.
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Alavés struggle away from home and Atlético's high shot volume and set-piece strength favor a clean, multi-goal victory.
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Atletico Madrid vs Alaves Predictions and Best Bets
Atletico Madrid vs Alaves — bet365 Market Snapshot
Informational layout. Any probabilities shown are implied from the listed odds (where available). Prices can change. 18+ GambleAware.
Atlético’s unbeaten home streak and Alavés’ poor away form create a clear tilt toward the hosts in the standard 1X2 market.
Atlético’s scoring rate at home suggests potential for a high-event clash at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
- Home fortress energy: Atlético are unbeaten at home in La Liga with eight wins and one draw from nine, and they’ve hit 2+ goals in 83% of their last six home matches.
- Alavés’ away alarm bells: They’ve lost six straight away league games, and their last three La Liga away defeats have all been by 2+ goals.
- Control vs chaos profile: Atlético average 53% possession, 86% pass accuracy and 13.39 shots per game, while Alavés bring 2.3 yellows per game and 15.35 fouls — a feisty recipe.
Attacking Volume: Average Shots per Match
Atlético’s home dominance is fueled by consistent pressure, creating a significant gap in offensive intent compared to Alavés’ league average.
Diego Simeone’s side maintain high pressure, with a specific focus on attacking down the right side and set-piece efficiency.
Alavés rely more on aerial duels and counter-attacks, often seeing lower possession but high defensive involvement.
Physicality: Fouls Committed per Match
Alavés’ survival strategy relies on disrupting play, which is reflected in one of the higher foul rates in the division.
With 2.3 yellows per game, Alavés use physicality to break opposition rhythm, particularly against high-possession teams.
Despite their reputation for grit, Atlético have been more disciplined this season, averaging significantly fewer fouls than their opponents.
Atlético Madrid are back on home turf with a point to prove. Sunday’s La Liga return comes after a spell away from league action, and Diego Simeone’s side want a response — fast, sharp, and ruthless — in front of their own fans at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano.
The table context is clean and cold. Atlético are fourth on 38 points, with daylight on the chasing pack, while Alavés sit 16th and only two points above the relegation zone. It’s a clash of pressures: Champions League places on one side, survival air on the other. Kick-off is 15:15, and with temperatures around 6°C, this has the feel of a winter grind where the first big moment could shape everything.
Team News & Lineups
Atlético Madrid absences
- Nico González – muscle injury (out until 25/01/2026)
- Clément Lenglet – inner ligament injury (out until 01/03/2026)
Alavés absences
- No injuries or suspensions listed.
Atlético Madrid probable XI
Jan Oblak; Marcos Llorente, Dávid Hancko, Pubill, Ruggeri; Giuliano Simeone, Koke, Barrios, Álex Baena; Alexander Sørloth, Julián Alvarez
Alavés probable XI
Sivera; Jonny, Tenaglia, Pacheco, Parada; Ibanez, Antonio Blanco; Vicente, Suárez, Carles Aleñá; Martínez
Lineup implications (quick hit)
- With Lenglet and Nico González out, Atlético’s balance leans even harder on Koke for control and Alvarez/Sørloth for cutting edge.
- Alavés look set for a compact base through Blanco and Ibáñez, but their weaknesses defending counter attacks and down the wings could get tested early and often.
The Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Atlético Madrid | Alavés |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th | 16th |
| Points | 38 | 19 |
| Record (La Liga) | 11W-5D-3L | 5W-4D-10L |
| Goals scored (La Liga) | 34 (19) | 16 (19) |
| Shots per game | 12.8 (La Liga) / 13.39 (overall log) | 11.91 |
| Possession | 53% | 52% (overall log) / 49.9% (season) |
| Pass accuracy | 86% | 81% |
| Clean sheets | 8 | 7 |
| Corners per game | 6.68 | 5.17 |
| Discipline | 1.61 yellows / 11.32 fouls | 2.3 yellows / 15.35 fouls |
This reads like a familiar script: Atlético with the ball, the territory and the shot volume; Alavés with the edge, the tackles, and the need to turn it into a battle. The key detail is efficiency: Atlético’s 34 goals across 19 league matches dwarfs Alavés’ 16, and that gap shapes how brave each side can afford to be.
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Tactical Battle: How the Match Plays Out
Atlético’s plan: possession with teeth, then a fast twist of the knife
Atlético are built to control matches without looking frantic. Their style leans into possession football, attacking down the right, and a calm, non-aggressive rhythm — but don’t confuse that with soft. They’re strong in finishing chances, they love counter attacks, and they’re very strong from direct free kicks.
Expect Simeone’s side to push the pitch up and keep Alavés penned in with repeat waves: short passes, quick switches, then a final surge into the box. The numbers back it: 53% possession, 86% pass accuracy, and nearly 13.4 shots per game in the match logs. Once Atlético start stacking corners — 6.68 per match — it becomes a pressure cooker where defenders are constantly turning to face their own goal.
The focal point is the front two. Julián Alvarez brings goals (7) and creativity (3 assists) with a 7.05 rating, while Alexander Sørloth offers a direct target (5 goals, 2.9 aerials won per game) that changes how Alavés can defend the box. One drags you short, the other pins you long.
Alavés’ plan: survive the first wave, then hit wide and hit hard
Eduardo Coudet’s Alavés don’t hide from a scrap. They play with width, take long shots, and they’re aggressive — which you can see in the foul count (15.35 per game) and yellows (2.3 per game). The aim is simple: disrupt Atlético’s rhythm, stop clean build-up, and turn possession into broken play.
Alavés also carry a real aerial threat. Toni Martínez wins 4.4 aerials per match and has 3 goals and 1 assist; that’s a classic outlet when you’re under siege and need to breathe. If Carlos Vicente (4 goals) can get service on the right, Alavés can at least ask questions.
But the matchup problem is obvious: Alavés are very weak defending down the wings, and Atlético are strong attacking down the wings. If Alavés over-commit to blocking central spaces, the wide channels start to burn.
The hidden tension: lead management and late-game nerves
Atlético’s one glaring flaw is protecting the lead — marked as very weak — and that’s where Alavés have to keep themselves alive. Alavés are strong at protecting the lead, but they need to be in front for that to matter. If they’re chasing late, that aggression can turn into cheap fouls in dangerous areas… exactly where Atlético thrive.
Key Moments to Watch
- Direct free kicks: Atlético are very strong here, and Alavés are very weak at avoiding fouls in dangerous areas — a volatile combo.
- Right-side pressure: Both sides lean to attacking down the right, but Atlético’s ball security and shot volume can trap Alavés deep and force repeated defending.
- Discipline and fatigue: Alavés rack up 353 fouls and 53 yellows across the campaign. If the referee’s whistle gets busy, Atlético’s territory advantage grows.
- First-half resilience: Atlético haven’t lost at half time in 21 straight La Liga matches. Alavés can’t afford a slow start in this stadium.
What could go wrong?
If Atlético dominate without landing the knockout, the match can turn edgy. Their struggle to protect leads invites late drama, and Alavés have the aggression — and the aerial outlet — to make the final stretch uncomfortable. One loose pass, one set-piece swing, and a controlled afternoon can suddenly feel like a fire drill.
Best Bet for Atlético Madrid vs Alavés
Can Atlético’s Home Dominance Overpower the Alavés Grind?
The Punter’s Cheat Sheet
| Factor | The Numbers | Betting Signal |
| Home Form | Atléti 8W-1D at home; Alavés 6 straight away losses | Back Home Win |
| Goal Margin | Atléti 2+ goals in 83% of home games; Alavés last 3 away losses by 2+ | Atlético -1 Handicap |
| Discipline | Alavés 15.35 fouls/gm; Atléti very strong at direct free kicks | Alavés Over 2.5 Cards |
| Volume | Atléti 13.39 shots/gm; Alavés 11.91 shots/gm | Over 2.5 Goals |
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Atlético Madrid to Win -1 (Handicap)
Atlético Madrid enter this fixture as a dominant force at the Riyadh Air Metropolitano. They are currently unbeaten at home in La Liga, boasting a record of eight wins and just one draw from nine matches. Their ability to find the net in front of their own fans is a key factor, as they have scored two or more goals in 83% of their last six home outings.
The contrast with Alavés’ travel form is stark. The visitors have lost six consecutive away league matches. More importantly for the handicap market, their last three defeats on the road have all been by a margin of two or more goals. This suggests that once Alavés fall behind away from home, they struggle to keep the scoreline competitive.
Tactically, Atlético are set to control 53% of possession and sustain pressure through high shot volumes, averaging over 13 attempts per game. Alavés, while aggressive, average 15.35 fouls per match. This high foul count against a side that is very strong at direct free kicks creates a constant threat of dead-ball goals.
With Alexander Sørloth and Julián Alvarez leading the line, Atlético have the clinical edge to exploit an Alavés defense that is statistically weak against wing attacks. Given that Atlético haven’t even trailed at half-time in 21 straight La Liga games, expect them to take control early and cover the -1 goal handicap comfortably.
What could go wrong? Atlético have a noted weakness in protecting leads, which could invite late drama if they fail to secure a multi-goal cushion early. Alavés possess a significant aerial threat through Toni Martínez, who wins 4.4 aerial duels per game; one set-piece lapse could allow the visitors to claw back into the game and ruin the handicap margin.
Correct Score Lean
Atlético Madrid 3-0 Alavés
This scoreline aligns with the statistical trend of Atlético scoring 2+ goals at home and Alavés losing their recent away games by significant margins. Atlético’s 86% pass accuracy and 6.68 corners per game will likely pin Alavés in their own third for long periods. With Alavés averaging 2.3 yellow cards per game, the resulting set-piece opportunities for Atlético—who are lethal from direct free kicks—should provide the platform for a comfortable three-goal victory.
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