Alaves vs Malaga Preview: Hosts Seek Revival Against La Liga's Bottom Club. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Alaves' home strength and Malaga's defensive frailty support a home win with both teams scoring. Despite Alaves' recent goal drought, Angel Perez's return and Malaga's consistent scoring in recent matches make this combined market plausible and tactically justified.
A 3-1 scoreline fits Malaga's defensive frailty and their ability to score occasionally, while Alaves' home attack and Angel Perez's return support a multi-goal performance.
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REGISTER FREE & UNLOCK TIP →Already registered? Log in18+ · Historical results only. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Betting involves risk.Compare form, H2H, goals trends and key data for Alaves v Malaga.
Alaves welcome Malaga to the Estadio de Mendizorroza on Friday, 23 October 2026, with both sides desperate to halt worrying runs of form in La Liga.
Alaves vs Malaga — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Alaves and Malaga arrive with similar form, leaving fine margins likely to decide the result.
Malaga hold the stronger winning edge, while Alaves still offer enough threat for BTTS.
Alaves carry the stronger defensive profile, while Malaga remain vulnerable in the likely scoreline.
Alaves create more chances, leaving Malaga under pressure to match their attacking tempo.
Three Punchy Stats
- Five without victory: Alaves have collected just one point from their last five La Liga matches.
- 18 goals conceded: Malaga have the joint-second worst defensive record in the division after nine fixtures.
- Home advantage: Alaves have recorded all three of their league victories this season at Mendizorroza.
Scoring in Recent Matches
Recent attacking records for Alaves and Malaga are shown below.
Defensive Records in Recent Matches
Recent defensive records for Alaves and Malaga are shown below.
Quique Sanchez Flores' side have slipped to seventh after five matches without a victory, while Malaga remain rooted to the bottom of the table, still searching for their first league win of the campaign.
Despite their recent struggles, Alaves have a significant home advantage against opponents whose defensive weaknesses have repeatedly undermined their performances.
Alaves Looking to Rediscover Early-Season Momentum
Alaves began the 2026-27 campaign impressively, collecting 10 points from their opening four matches through three victories and a draw.
However, their fortunes have deteriorated dramatically. Four defeats and one draw across their subsequent five fixtures have left them with 11 points from nine matches.
Successive defeats against Atletico Madrid and Celta Vigo have further exposed their difficulties, with the Basque outfit conceding four goals across those encounters.
Their attacking output has also declined, producing just three goals in their previous five league matches.
Nevertheless, home performances offer encouragement. All three of Alaves' victories this season have come at Mendizorroza, where they have won three of their five league fixtures.
With 13 goals scored and 10 conceded overall, their underlying scoring record remains considerably stronger than Malaga's.
Lucas Boye has been particularly influential, contributing five goals in eight league appearances. His finishing could prove decisive against a defence struggling to contain opposition forwards.
Malaga's Defensive Problems Continue
Malaga arrive in the Basque Country without a victory from their opening nine league fixtures, having registered four draws and five defeats.
Juan Francisco Funes' side have collected just four points from a possible 27, leaving them 20th in the standings.
Their latest setback was particularly damaging, suffering a 5-2 home defeat against Real Sociedad.
That result extended their difficult sequence to three defeats in four matches and highlighted the defensive problems that have defined their campaign.
Malaga have conceded 18 goals, giving them the joint-second worst defensive record in La Liga, while scoring only six themselves.
Their away performances offer little reassurance either, with three defeats in four league trips.
There are occasional signs of attacking promise, however. Four of their previous five matches featured goals at both ends, suggesting Malaga can still create opportunities despite their overall struggles.
Adrian Nino represents their clearest attacking threat, having scored three times in five appearances, including goals in successive league outings.
His partnership with Chupe could provide the visitors with a route towards troubling Alaves' backline.
Team News and Tactical Outlook
Alaves receive a welcome boost with Angel Perez returning from suspension.
The 24-year-old has supplied three assists in eight league appearances and should restore creativity and attacking width to the starting lineup.
Facundo Garces and Mikel Rodriguez remain sidelined with cruciate ligament injuries.
Malaga face their own selection difficulties, with Diego Murillo and Julen Lobete unavailable through injury.
Aaron Ochoa and Juan Cruz also face fitness concerns, while Joaquin Munoz is another reported absentee.
Tactically, Alaves should look to exploit Malaga's vulnerable defence through Boye's movement and Perez's delivery.
Malaga, meanwhile, need greater defensive discipline without sacrificing the attacking threat provided by Nino.
Alaves vs Malaga Prediction
Recent meetings favour the hosts, who have won four of the previous five encounters between these clubs.
Alaves also recorded a 3-0 victory in their most recent La Liga meeting in May 2018.
Although their current form raises concerns, home advantage, greater attacking productivity and Malaga's defensive frailties make Alaves the stronger candidates.
Malaga's recent scoring record suggests they could respond, but their inability to protect their own goal remains a major obstacle.
Prediction: Alaves 3-1 Malaga.
How The Main Pick Settles
This combined market requires two distinct conditions to win together. First, Alaves must win the match after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Second, Malaga must score at least one goal. If Alaves win 1-0 or 2-0, the bet loses because Malaga failed to score. If the match ends in a draw or a Malaga victory, the bet loses regardless of how many goals are scored.
Other Opportunities In This Market
Backing the standard Match Result (Alaves to win) requires only a home victory in 90 minutes plus stoppage time, removing the need for an away goal, but this trades the higher price of the combined market for a safer settlement condition. Alternatively, standard Both Teams to Score (BTTS) wins if both sides register a goal, ignoring the final match outcome entirely.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Alaves to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Alaves vs Malaga 3-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Alaves to win and both teams to score @ 11/4
Alaves return to the Estadio de Mendizorroza seeking to re-establish their early-season momentum, and combining a home victory with both teams to score fits the contrasting patterns of these two sides. All three of Alaves’ victories this season have arrived on their own pitch. They have scored 13 goals across nine fixtures, establishing a reliable attacking platform against a travelling side that has suffered three defeats in four away league trips and collected just four points all season.
The interaction between Malaga’s defensive vulnerability and their recent attacking consistency makes the combined market particularly relevant. Malaga possess the joint-second worst defensive record in La Liga, conceding 18 goals in nine matches, a frailty exposed during their recent 5-2 defeat to Real Sociedad. Alaves forward Lucas Boye, with five goals in eight appearances, is well-placed to exploit those gaps. Yet Malaga still pose a threat. Four of their previous five fixtures have seen both teams score, and forward Adrian Nino has found the net three times in his last five outings, proving they can breach defences despite poor overall results.
The main complication for the home side is their recent five-match winless sequence, which has yielded just one point and three goals. That drop in attacking output provides a legitimate risk to the selection. However, the return of Angel Perez, who has supplied three assists, should help restore their creative edge. Facing the division’s bottom club offers Alaves an ideal opportunity to convert home advantage into three points, while Malaga’s ongoing ability to register goals against vulnerable backlines provides the required evidence for the away consolation.
This exact-score market wins only if the match finishes exactly 3-1 to Alaves after 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If Alaves win 2-1, 3-0, or 4-1, the selection loses. Every goal scored or conceded directly affects the settlement, demanding absolute precision from both teams’ final tallies.
Over 3.5 Goals wins if the match produces four or more total goals, regardless of the final result. This covers a 3-1 Alaves win, but also pays out on a 2-2 draw or a 4-0 victory. It lowers the odds by removing the need to predict the exact distribution of the goals between the two sides.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Alaves have won all three of their La Liga victories this season at Mendizorroza.
- Malaga have the joint-second worst defensive record in the division, conceding 18 goals in nine matches.
- Four of Malaga's previous five fixtures have seen both teams score.
Risk Factor: Alaves have scored just three goals in their last five league matches, risking a low-scoring outcome.
Key Tactical Mismatch
All three league wins this season have come at Mendizorroza.
Conceded 18 goals in nine matches, including a 5-2 loss to Real Sociedad.
⚔️ Pick 2: Alaves vs Malaga 3-1 @ 13/1
A 3-1 victory for Alaves aligns with the heavy defensive weaknesses Malaga have shown this season, alongside the visitors’ persistent ability to find a consolation goal. To justify the home side scoring three times, the primary evidence lies in Malaga’s backline. The visitors concede exactly two goals per game on average, having allowed 18 across their opening nine fixtures. Their recent 5-2 defeat to Real Sociedad demonstrates how quickly their defensive structure can concede multiple goals. With Alaves having scored 13 times overall and welcoming back chief creator Angel Perez to supply Lucas Boye, the hosts have the attacking components to register a high total at Mendizorroza.
For the away side of the scoreline, Malaga’s recent fixtures establish a clear scoring pattern. Despite remaining bottom of the table, four of their last five matches have featured goals at both ends. Adrian Nino’s three goals in five appearances, including strikes in consecutive matches, prove that Juan Francisco Funes’ side can convert chances even while suffering defeats. Alaves have conceded 10 goals this season, showing they are not impenetrable at the back.
Historical meetings offer additional precedent, with Alaves winning four of the last five encounters, including a 3-0 top-flight victory in 2018. While that past history is contextual, it supports the possibility of a comfortable home margin. The vulnerability of an exact correct-score selection is that a single missed chance or an unexpected clean sheet destroys the bet. However, balancing Malaga’s porous defence with their recent attacking contributions makes a 3-1 home victory a credible interpretation of the supplied statistics.
Risk Factor: Malaga's defensive issues may allow Alaves to score multiple goals, but conversion is uncertain.
Frequently Asked Questions
What does the 'Alaves to win and both teams to score' market require?
Alaves must win and Malaga must score at least one goal for the bet to win.
Why is Alaves' home form significant?
All three of Alaves' league wins this season have been at Mendizorroza, showing strong home advantage.
Does the match winner matter for a standard Both Teams to Score bet?
No, BTTS only requires both teams to score regardless of the match result.
How does the Correct Score market settle?
It wins only if the match finishes with the exact predicted score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time.
Why is Adrian Nino relevant to the away scoring logic?
Adrian Nino has scored three goals in five appearances, showing Malaga's ability to score despite struggles.
What happens if Malaga draw 1-1 in Pick 1?
The bet loses because Alaves must win for the combined market to succeed.
