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Can Alavés turn solid home form into breathing space, or will Girona’s momentum travel? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Read Rationale ▾
Alaves have been dependable at Mendizorroza, picking up 18 of their 26 points at home. Their superior aerial presence and Girona’s defensive fragility at set pieces suggest they can avoid defeat in this crucial relegation-scrap fixture on Monday night.
Read Rationale ▾
With both teams sitting just points above the relegation zone, a cautious approach is expected. Girona’s ability to control possession should lead to chances, but Alaves’ home grit and aerial threat from set plays often results in low-scoring stalemates between evenly matched sides.
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Monday night at Estadio de Mendizorroza has that sharp edge you can feel through the stands as Alavés host Girona with relegation pressure mounting.
Alaves vs Girona — Market Snapshot
Swipe for key stats and sample William Hill odds based on current match form.
Alaves have earned 18 points at home this season, making them marginal favourites in this tight Monday night encounter.
Both sides shoot less than 12 times per game, suggesting the under 2.5 goals market holds significant weight here.
Alaves have 5 home wins but Girona’s momentum from the Barcelona win makes a scoring draw highly plausible.
Alaves win 16.7 aerial duels per match compared to Girona’s 11.5, giving them a distinct tactical set-piece advantage.
Match Preview
Alavés are 14th on 26 points, just two points above the relegation zone, and every phase of play carries consequence now. They’ve steadied themselves with seven points from the last four league games, but the table doesn’t let you breathe for long.
Girona are 12th on 29 points, only three points above their hosts, yet the mood is different: they’re chasing back-to-back league wins after beating Barcelona 2-1. Add in the reverse fixture ending Girona 1-0 Alavés, and there’s a clear edge of unfinished business under the floodlights.
Tactical Profile: Aerial Dominance
The battle in the air could be decisive, especially for Alaves who rely heavily on winning headers to create territory.
Their direct approach focuses on high crossing volume and set-piece pressure.
Weakness in the air makes them vulnerable to Alaves’ physical box threat.
Discipline: Foul Count Per Game
Both teams show a high degree of defensive urgency, which often leads to interrupted play.
A high foul rate often slows the match down, suiting their cagey defensive style.
Their disciplinary record suggests a susceptibility to rash moments in transition.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Injuries and Absences
- Alavés: Antonio Sivera – unknown injury.
Probable Alavés XI
Sivera; Tenaglia, Garces, Pacheco, Otto; Calebe, Blanco, Suarez, Alena; Martinez, Boye
Probable Girona XI
Gazzaniga; Rincon, Reis, Blind, Martinez; Tsygankov, Lemar, Witsel, Martin, Gil; Vanat
If Sivera is a doubt, that uncertainty ripples through Alavés’ build-up and decision-making early on — especially with Girona happy to keep the ball and make you run. Girona’s XI looks built for control through the middle with Axel Witsel and Iván Martín, then quick connections into Viktor Tsygankov and Bryan Gil around Vladyslav Vanat.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric (La Liga) | Alavés | Girona |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th | 12th |
| Points | 26 | 29 |
| Goals scored | 21 | 24 |
| Shots per game | 11.6 | 9.8 |
| Possession | 50.8% | 48.1% |
| Pass accuracy | 80.9% | 84.7% |
| Aerials won | 16.7 | 11.5 |
Tactical Battle
Alavés: width, right-sided thrust, and a scrap for territory
Alavés lean into width and attacking down the right, and you can see why when you look at the personnel and strengths. They’re strong in aerial duels and strong from direct free kicks, which screams “get it into the mixer” whenever the game tightens. With Toni Martínez and Lucas Boyé both on 5 league goals, Alavés have two routes to goal: one that targets the box early, and one that uses Boyé’s all-action movement to disrupt centre-backs.
But there’s a clear tension in their profile. They’re very weak at finishing scoring chances. So the plan can’t just be volume for volume’s sake — they need the right shots, not just more shots. Expect Alavés to try to turn set-pieces and wide deliveries into repeatable pressure, pinning Girona back and forcing clearances that can be recycled.
Girona: controlled circulation… with a soft underbelly
Girona’s style points to short passes, a bias to attacking down the left, and spells of playing in their own half to draw teams out. That’s where the match can open up: tempt Alavés forward, then snap the ball into the spaces they leave behind. Girona also have goals spread across the side, but the headline is Vladyslav Vanat (7) as the focal point, with Tsygankov (4) adding punch from deeper areas.
The worry for Michel’s side is written all over the weaknesses: stopping opponents from creating chances and defending set pieces. That’s dangerous against an Alavés team that lives for ugly moments — throws, corners, free kicks, second balls, the lot. Girona are also weak in aerial duels, and Alavés win 16.7 aerials per match in the league. If Girona can’t turn those defensive restarts into clean exits, they’ll spend long minutes absorbing pressure.
Key Zones
Alavés have a glaring vulnerability: defending counter attacks and defending attacks down the wings are both weaknesses. That’s exactly the type of invitation Girona want. If Alavés commit numbers to wide play and set-piece pressure, Girona will look to break into the channels and force recovery runs. Those are the moments where decisions become frantic — the foul that stops a counter, the mistimed tackle, the yellow that changes how you defend.
This is also where discipline becomes part of the tactics. Alavés rack up 440 fouls across 29 matches (15.17 per game) and struggle to avoid fouling in dangerous areas. Girona, meanwhile, have 6 red cards in the league. If either side loses their head in transition, the match can flip instantly from chess to chaos.
Key Moments to Watch
- Set-pieces and direct free kicks: Alavés are strong from direct free kicks, and Girona are weak defending set pieces.
- Aerial battle in both boxes: Alavés’ 16.7 aerials won per match vs Girona’s 11.5 is a potential game plan.
- The wing traps: Alavés are weak defending counters and wide attacks; Girona attack down the left and like runners into space.
- Flashpoints and cards: Girona’s 6 reds and Alavés’ foul volume create a match where one rash moment can decide the story.
What Could Go Wrong?
If Alavés chase the game too hard, they risk feeding Girona exactly what they want: transition chances into wide areas. If Girona get cute trying to play through pressure, they can invite the kind of set-piece and aerial siege that turns Mendizorroza into a stress test. Either way, this one has the ingredients for a tight contest that hinges on a single lapse — a needless foul, a lost header, or one poorly managed counter.
Quick Hits
- Alavés have 18 points from 12 home league matches (5W-3D-4L), and they’re only two points clear of the relegation zone.
- Alavés’ last six reads W2-D1-L3, while Girona arrive W3-D2-L1 and fresh off a 2-1 win over Barcelona.
- Alavés average 15.17 fouls per match and are very weak at avoiding fouling in dangerous areas, while Girona have 6 red cards in the league compared to Alavés’ 2.
📊 Market Insights & Tactical Rationale
Double Chance Explainer
The Double Chance market allows you to cover two of the three possible match outcomes in a single selection (e.g., Home Win or Draw). This reduces risk by providing a payout if the match ends in either result, though prices are generally lower than single result markets.
Correct Score Explainer
Correct Score requires predicting the exact final scoreline of the match. Due to the high difficulty of hitting the precise result, this market offers significantly higher prices. It is best suited for matches where tactical patterns suggest a low-scoring or specific outcome.
🎯 Pick 1: Alaves or Draw (Double Chance)
Alaves have built their survival hopes on their performance at Estadio de Mendizorroza, securing 18 of their 26 total points in front of their home fans. This home edge is a critical factor when facing a Girona side that, despite recent momentum, has shown significant defensive frailties. The tactical mismatch in the air is particularly striking; Alaves win an average of 16.7 aerial duels per match, while Girona manage only 11.5. Against a team weak at defending set pieces, Alaves’ physical presence and direct free-kick strength should allow them to dominate territory and create high-pressure moments.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- Home Fortress: 69% of Alaves’ points have been earned at Mendizorroza.
- Air Supremacy: Alaves win 5.2 more aerial duels per game than Girona.
- Set-Piece Weakness: Girona struggle to defend restarts, Alaves’ primary scoring route.
Risk Factor: Alaves are very weak at finishing scoring chances, meaning they may fail to capitalise on periods of dominance.
🎯 Pick 2: Correct Score 1-1
Predicting a 1-1 stalemate aligns with the current league positions and the stakes involved for both clubs. With only three points separating the sides, a cagey encounter is anticipated where neither manager will want to leave gaps for the opposition to exploit. Girona’s superior pass accuracy (84.7%) and preference for short-pass patterns suggest they will control phases of possession and likely find a breakthrough. However, Alaves’ persistent aerial threat and Girona’s tendency to commit fouls in dangerous areas provide the hosts with clear avenues to equalise.
Girona’s record of 6 red cards this season indicates a lack of discipline under pressure, which could lead to a frantic end to the match where Alaves’ physical persistence eventually pays off. Given that the reverse fixture was a narrow 1-0, a tight, low-scoring draw is a logical progression for two teams desperate to avoid defeat.
Risk Factor: A rash moment resulting in a red card (common for Girona) could completely destabilise the defensive structure of either side.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Winning 16.7 duels/match. Direct threat from high crosses and set-piece situations.
Known vulnerability defending restarts. Likely to struggle against Alaves’ physical box presence.
🔍 Frequently Asked Questions
⊕What is a Double Chance bet?
⊕Why is Alaves vs Girona predicted to be low scoring?
⊕How does aerial dominance affect the match?
⊕What is the Correct Score market?
⊕Why do Girona have so many red cards?
⊕Is Alaves’ home form significant?
⊕What is Axel Witsel’s role for Girona?
⊕What are the main risks for these predictions?
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Last Odds Update: Feb 10, 14:20 GMT | Editorial Policy
