Alaves vs Atletico Madrid Predictions

Alavés vs Atlético Madrid Preview: Simeone's In-Form Side Face Tricky Basque Test. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Atlético Madrid will look to extend their three-match La Liga winning streak when they visit Alavés at the Estadio de Mendizorroza on Saturday, 10 October 2026.

Three Punchy Stats

• Nine goals in three games: Atlético have scored nine times during their current three-match league winning streak.
• Four unbeaten at home: Alavés have avoided defeat in their last four home league encounters against Atlético, winning two.
• Five-point difference: Atlético sit second with 16 points, while sixth-placed Alavés have accumulated 11 from seven matches.

Diego Simeone's side arrive second in the table, five points behind Barcelona, having rediscovered their attacking rhythm with impressive victories over Real Sociedad, Osasuna and Real Madrid.

However, sixth-placed Alavés have made an encouraging start under Quique Sánchez Flores and possess a formidable recent home record against Atlético. With both clubs chasing important points, this encounter presents an intriguing examination of their contrasting strengths.

Alavés Seeking to Rediscover Early Momentum

Alavés have collected 11 points from seven league matches, recording three victories, two draws and two defeats.

Their campaign began brightly, with 10 points from the opening four fixtures, including a commanding 5-2 victory over Osasuna and a narrow 1-0 success against Villarreal.

Momentum subsequently stalled following consecutive defeats to Racing de Santander and Valencia, before a goalless draw against Athletic Bilbao.

That latest performance highlighted both their defensive resilience and attacking limitations. Alavés managed just 31% possession at San Mamés and failed to register a shot on target.

Nevertheless, their overall defensive numbers remain encouraging. They have conceded only six goals in seven league matches, compared with Atlético's seven.

Lucas Boyé has been particularly influential, scoring four league goals and providing the hosts with a reliable attacking outlet.

Home advantage could prove significant. Alavés are unbeaten in their previous four home league meetings with Atlético, winning twice, despite their visitors' superior overall head-to-head record.

Atlético Madrid Building Serious Momentum

Atlético's recent resurgence has strengthened their position among La Liga's leading contenders.

Following a disappointing 3-0 defeat against Athletic Bilbao, Simeone's men responded emphatically, defeating Real Sociedad 3-0, Osasuna 4-0 and Real Madrid 2-1.

Those three victories produced nine goals, demonstrating the attacking improvement that has accompanied their climb to second place.

Atlético have scored 16 goals across seven league fixtures, five more than Alavés, while collecting 16 points from a possible 21.

Their broader attacking statistics reinforce that superiority.

Across their previous 10 league matches, Atlético have averaged 14.7 attempts, 5.7 shots on target and two goals per game.

Alavés, by comparison, have averaged 12.2 attempts, 4.6 shots on target and 1.4 goals.

Possession could also shape proceedings. Atlético's average of 54.1% contrasts with Alavés' 39.5%, suggesting the visitors may enjoy greater territorial control.

However, Atlético must balance domestic ambitions with an upcoming Champions League meeting against Manchester United, making squad management an important consideration.

Team News and Tactical Outlook

Alavés will be without Mikel Rodríguez, Facundo Garcés and Ville Koski, although Sánchez Flores otherwise has a relatively settled squad available.

Boyé should lead the attack alongside Toni Martínez, with the hosts potentially adopting a compact defensive structure designed to frustrate Atlético's attacking midfielders.

Simeone, meanwhile, is expected to have Pablo Barrios and Alexander Sørloth available following their injury recoveries.

Julián Álvarez could return to the starting lineup, while Alejandro Baena, Giuliano Simeone and Lee Kang-in are among the attacking options available.

Marcos Llorente may operate at right-back, allowing Koke to provide experience and control in central midfield.

The tactical contest should revolve around Atlético's ability to penetrate Alavés' defensive shape without leaving themselves exposed during transitions.

Match Prediction: Alavés 1-2 Atlético Madrid

Atlético enter this fixture with superior attacking numbers, stronger recent results and considerable momentum following their derby victory.

However, Alavés' defensive organisation and impressive home record against Simeone's side suggest a demanding afternoon.

The visitors' greater attacking quality could ultimately prove decisive, although a narrow victory appears more plausible than another comfortable success.

📊 Market Explainer

Main Tip

Win & Both Teams to Score

Selection: Atlético Madrid to win and both teams to score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.

Correct Score Tip

Correct Score Market

Selection: Alavés vs Atlético Madrid 1-2. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.

🎯 Pick 1: Atlético Madrid to win and both teams to score @ 5/2

Atlético Madrid arrive in formidable attacking form, making them strong candidates for the victory, while Alavés have enough quality at home to contribute to the scoresheet. Diego Simeone’s side have collected 16 points from seven league matches, driven by an attack that has produced 16 goals. Their recent sequence is striking, generating nine goals across three consecutive victories against Real Sociedad, Osasuna and Real Madrid. Across their previous 10 league fixtures, the visitors have averaged 14.7 attempts and two goals per game.

That attacking volume meets an Alavés side that started the campaign brightly but have recently shown vulnerability. While Quique Sánchez Flores’ men have conceded just six times in seven outings, they must now handle an away side enjoying significant momentum. The hosts provide credible attacking threat of their own to support the both-teams-to-score element. Lucas Boyé has already contributed four league goals, and Alavés scored five against Osasuna earlier in the campaign. The home side average 1.4 goals per game over their last 10, indicating they can test an Atlético defence that has conceded seven times in seven matches.

The primary complication is Alavés’s exceptional recent home record in this fixture, having avoided defeat in their last four Mendizorroza meetings with Atlético, winning two. Furthermore, Alavés recently recorded a goalless draw at Athletic Bilbao, highlighting their capacity for defensive containment. Nevertheless, Atlético’s current average of 5.7 shots on target per game suggests they possess the required penetration to break through, making an away victory with goals at both ends a coherent prospect.

🎯 Tactical Indicators

• Atlético Madrid have scored nine goals across their current three-match winning streak.
• Alavés average 1.4 goals per game over their last 10 league fixtures.
• The visitors average 14.7 attempts and 5.7 shots on target across their previous 10 matches.

Risk Factor: Alavés recently managed a goalless draw against Athletic Bilbao and have kept Atlético Madrid winless in their last four meetings at this stadium, which threatens the required away victory condition.

⚔️ Pick 2: Alavés vs Atlético Madrid 1-2 @ 13/2

A 2-1 victory for Atlético Madrid aligns closely with the attacking outputs and defensive records of both clubs. The visitors are averaging exactly two goals per game across their previous 10 league fixtures, providing clear evidence for the away side scoring twice. Diego Simeone’s men have struck nine times in their last three victories alone, demonstrating they have the required penetration to breach a home defence that has conceded six times in seven matches.

Alavés, however, have demonstrated enough attacking capacity to register exactly one goal. They have accumulated 11 goals in seven league fixtures and average 1.4 goals per game over a 10-match sample. With Lucas Boyé contributing four goals already this campaign, the hosts possess a reliable outlet. Atlético’s defence has conceded exactly one goal per game on average this season, shipping seven in seven matches, which supports the possibility of the home side finding the net once.

The visitors’ possession advantage, averaging 54.1% compared to Alavés’ 39.5%, suggests Atlético will control the territorial battle. This control should restrict Alavés’ opportunities to a single breakthrough rather than multiple goals. The main challenge to this exact scoreline is the home side’s recent offensive drop-off, particularly their failure to register a single shot on target during their draw at Athletic Bilbao. If Alavés replicate that blunt attacking performance, the selection will fail through a lack of home goals. However, considering Alavés’ broader scoring rate and Atlético’s firepower, a narrow away victory with a single reply remains a coherent proposition.