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Alaves crestAlaves
v
Atletico Madrid crestAtletico Madrid

La Liga | Sat 10 Oct, 15:15

Alaves v Atletico Madrid Stats

Data last updated: Fri 06 Nov 2026, 23:38 UK time

Match Report

Fixture analysis

Alaves face Atletico Madrid in La Liga on Sat 10 Oct, 15:15. Nine goals in three games: Atlético have scored nine times during their current three-match league winning streak. Alavés vs Atlético Madrid Preview: Simeone's In-Form Side Face Tricky Basque Test.

BT4Y best bet

Atlético Madrid to win and both teams to score

  • At 5/2, Atlético Madrid to win and both teams to score implies roughly 29%, while BT4Y rates the chance closer to 39%.
  • Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
  • Atletico Madrid need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Alaves on 7 and Atletico Madrid on 12.
  • The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 40% for Alaves and 40% for Atletico Madrid.
  • Atlético Madrid to win and both teams to score needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.4 for Alaves and 2.4 for Atletico Madrid are central to the read.

Why The Model Likes This Bet

Chance, price and football numbers

The 39% for Atlético Madrid to win and both teams to score sits against roughly 29% implied by the current price. Atletico Madrid need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Alaves on 7 and Atletico Madrid on 12. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Model chance vs price39% model chance against roughly 29% implied
Positive
Atletico Madrid need the result edge to pair with scoring.Visible data support
Positive
The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg.Visible data support
Positive
Read on for all our free predictions and betting.Article support
Positive

Verdict

BT4Y analyst view

BT4Y analyst view: Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS is the preferred angle because read on for all our free predictions and betting tips. Atletico Madrid need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Alaves on 7 and Atletico Madrid on 12. Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Main risk

Late team news, price movement and market liquidity are the main cautions before kick-off.

Key Data Signals

Atlético Madrid to win and both teams to score evidence

Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Atletico Madrid need the result edge to pair with scoring at both ends; recent points show Alaves on 7 and Atletico Madrid on 12.

The BTTS leg matters as much as the result leg here, with recent BTTS rates of 40% for Alaves and 40% for Atletico Madrid.

Atletico Madrid Win & BTTS needs both attacks involved, so goals-for averages of 1.4 for Alaves and 2.4 for Atletico Madrid are central to the read.

What To Watch In The Data

Atlético Madrid to win and both teams to score notes

  • Use the article-led angle and the visible data together; the strongest signal is where both point to the same match pattern.
Goals, BTTS and over/under

Scoring profile, tempo and goal-market analysis.

Alaves1.4
Avg goals scored
Atletico Madrid2.4
Alaves1
Avg goals conceded
Atletico Madrid1
Alaves40%
BTTS rate
Atletico Madrid40%
Alaves40%
Over 2.5 goals
Atletico Madrid100%
Best odds for this sectionOver 1.5 GoalsBetfred guide price · Model 79% vs implied 80% · edge -1.1 pts
1.25
Check odds @ 1.25
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Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Over 3.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 43%
3.2
Check odds @ 3.2
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
BTTS NoBetUK guide price · model 47%
2
Check odds @ 2
Under 2.5 GoalsBetMGM guide price · model 43%
2
Check odds @ 2
Over 1.5 Goals is more of a watchlist angle than a must-bet: recent Over 2.5 rates are 40% for Alaves and 100% for Atletico Madrid, so the goals line needs support from both scoring profiles.

Continue the research

Useful next reads

more La Liga analysisAlaves v Atletico Madrid predictioncorners trends hubfootball cards anglesplayer stats betting anglesfootball stats hubfootball hubfootball predictions hubbest bets researchacca fixture filtering
Market odds

Top available prices first, with more markets available on demand.

Market aligned with main pickAtletico Madrid to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
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Atletico Madrid Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Over 2.5 GoalsBet365 guide price · model 61%
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
BTTS YesBet365 guide price · model 57%
1.75
Check odds @ 1.75
Over 8.5 CornersBetMGM guide price · model 49%
1.44
Check odds @ 1.44
Atletico Madrid to Win is positive value at the current guide price, but the price only matters if the football route is clear. Use the model-versus-implied gap as the starting point, then check whether the article context, team news and section data actually point towards the same market.
Recent form

Results, scoring balance and short-term direction.

Alaves

DLLWW
Last 52W 1D 2L
Last 5 record
Last 103W 2D 2L
19 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-0
15 Sep 2026H Valencia0-1
12 Sep 2026A Racing Santander1-2
06 Sep 2026H Osasuna5-2
28 Aug 2026H Villarreal1-0

Atletico Madrid

WWWLW
Last 54W 0D 1L
Last 5 record
Last 105W 1D 1L
20 Sep 2026H Real Madrid2-1
16 Sep 2026H Osasuna4-0
13 Sep 2026A Real Sociedad3-0
05 Sep 2026A Athletic Club0-3
29 Aug 2026A Sevilla3-1
Market aligned with main pickAtletico Madrid to WinBetMGM guide price · Model 70% vs implied 56% · edge +14 pts
1.8
Check odds @ 1.8
Load more odds for this section
Atletico Madrid Draw No BetBet365 guide price · model 66%
1.95
Check odds @ 1.95
Away / DrawBet365 guide price · model 84%
1.22
Check odds @ 1.22
Key match trends

Goal-pattern analysis from recent form and H2H samples.

40%Alaves Over 2.5
100%Atletico Madrid Over 2.5
2.1H2H avg goals
The Over 2.5 trend is mixed: Alaves sit at 40% and Atletico Madrid sit at 100% with the H2H average at 2.1 goals, so the goals line needs more than one team's recent over rate.

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