Greece vs Serbia Predictions

Greece vs Serbia Preview: Hosts Seek Redemption After Dutch Humiliation. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Greece will look to recover from a humiliating defeat and keep their UEFA Nations League quarter-final hopes alive when they welcome Serbia on Monday, 16 November 2026.

Three Punchy Stats

• Five straight defeats: Serbia have lost every Nations League match this campaign, conceding 11 goals.
• Eight-point advantage: Greece have collected eight group points, while Serbia remain pointless.
• Goals on both sides: Serbia have scored in four of their five group defeats, despite losing every match.

Ivan Jovanovic's side suffered a crushing 7-0 defeat against the Netherlands on Friday, leaving their qualification ambitions hanging in the balance ahead of the final Group A2 fixture.

Serbia, meanwhile, arrive without a point from five matches and already condemned to relegation from League A. Despite their contrasting positions, both teams have defensive concerns that could shape an entertaining encounter.

Greece face a test of character

Greece began their Nations League campaign with considerable promise, beating Serbia 2-1 away before securing an impressive 1-0 victory over Germany.

Those results established Jovanovic's team as genuine contenders for a quarter-final place, and subsequent home draws against the Netherlands and Germany demonstrated their ability to compete with strong opposition.

However, Friday's collapse in Amsterdam represented a dramatic reversal.

Conceding seven unanswered goals exposed defensive weaknesses that had rarely been apparent earlier in the competition. The challenge now is whether Greece can restore their organisation and confidence quickly enough to secure a crucial victory.

The hosts enter the final round second in Group A2, level with Germany on eight points. Their qualification prospects depend on their own performance and Germany's result, adding another layer of pressure to Monday's contest.

There are nevertheless encouraging signs for Greece. Before the Netherlands defeat, they had avoided defeat in their opening four group matches, including two demanding encounters against Germany.

Their earlier victory in Belgrade also provides a useful tactical reference. Greece have already demonstrated that they can exploit Serbia's defensive vulnerabilities, and home advantage offers an opportunity to repeat that success.

Serbia's defensive problems continue

Serbia's Nations League campaign has been defined by disappointing results, defensive instability and an inability to turn competitive performances into points.

Veljko Paunovic's side have lost all five group fixtures, conceding 11 goals at an average of 2.2 per match.

Their latest setback came against Germany, who established a two-goal advantage inside 14 minutes before eventually winning 3-1.

The dismissal of Vanja Dragojevic and Andrija Zivkovic compounded Serbia's difficulties, leaving Paunovic without two players for the trip to Greece.

Their wider form is equally concerning, with eight defeats in their last nine matches.

Yet Serbia have shown some attacking resilience. They have scored in four of their five Nations League defeats, while three losses have come by a single goal.

That record suggests they retain enough attacking quality to trouble Greece, particularly against opponents whose defensive confidence may have suffered considerably in Amsterdam.

Team news and tactical outlook

Greece are expected to be without Dimitrios Kourbelis because of an ankle injury, potentially leaving Nectarios Triantis and Athanasios Androutsos responsible for controlling midfield.

Christos Tzolis and Konstantinos Karetsas offer attacking options out wide, while Vangelis Pavlidis and Fotis Ioannidis could form the forward partnership.

Their movement and combination play will be important against a Serbia defence that has struggled to maintain its shape throughout the competition.

For Serbia, the suspensions of Dragojevic and Zivkovic could prompt midfield adjustments, with Stefan Dzodic, Lazar Samardzic and Sergej Milinkovic-Savic among the expected starters.

Captain Dusan Tadic and Mihajlo Cvetkovic provide the attacking threat, particularly if Greece commit additional players forward.

The central tactical question concerns Greece's response to their previous defensive collapse. An aggressive approach could expose Serbia's weaknesses, but leaving space in transition would offer the visitors opportunities.

Greece vs Serbia prediction

Greece's stronger group record, home advantage and previous success against Serbia make them favourites to respond positively.

However, Serbia's ability to score despite their poor results suggests a clean sheet could prove difficult.

Prediction: Greece 2-1 Serbia.

📊 Market Explainer

Main Tip

Handicap Market

Selection: Greece Asian Handicap -1. A virtual goal advantage or deficit is applied before settlement. The bet is decided by the adjusted score after normal time.

Correct Score Tip

Correct Score Market

Selection: Greece vs Serbia 2-0. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.

🎯 Pick 1: Greece Asian Handicap -1 @ N/A

Greece enter this final Group A2 fixture seeking immediate redemption, but their broader Nations League form provides a credible basis for an Asian Handicap -1 selection. Before Friday’s collapse in Amsterdam, Ivan Jovanovic’s side had collected eight points from four unbeaten matches. That sequence included a 1-0 victory over Germany and a 2-1 win in Belgrade against Monday’s opponents, demonstrating a team capable of executing effective tactical plans against capable opposition. Backing the hosts on a -1 handicap requires them to win by at least two clear goals for a payout, while offering the security of a void bet and returned stake if they secure a one-goal victory.

The contrast in group status and defensive reliability heavily shapes this matchup. Greece retain quarter-final ambitions and sit level on points with Germany, demanding a purposeful home performance. Serbia travel to Athens already condemned to relegation from League A, having lost all five of their group fixtures. Veljko Paunovic’s side have conceded 11 times across those five matches—an average of 2.2 goals per game. Their difficulties are compounded by the suspensions of Vanja Dragojevic and Andrija Zivkovic following their dismissals against Germany, giving the Greek attack a clear avenue to exploit based on those consistent defensive gaps.

The obvious complication is Greece’s structural recovery after conceding seven unanswered goals against the Netherlands. Such a result can severely damage defensive confidence. However, Serbia’s wider run of eight defeats in their last nine matches suggests they lack the consistent authority to capitalise on any lingering Greek anxiety. Given the visitors’ defensive frailties and depleted squad, the hosts possess the motivation and previous head-to-head success to secure a multi-goal victory, making this handicap a logical approach that manages the risk of a narrow win.

🎯 Tactical Indicators

• Serbia lost all five group matches, conceding 11 goals.
• Greece earned eight points before their defeat in Amsterdam.
• Serbia miss Vanja Dragojevic and Andrija Zivkovic due to suspension.

Risk Factor: Greece's defensive confidence may be fragile after their 7-0 loss to the Netherlands.

⚔️ Pick 2: Greece vs Serbia 2-0 @ 6/1

Selecting a 2-0 correct score requires concrete evidence that Greece can breach the Serbian defence multiple times while simultaneously restoring their own defensive solidity. The hosts’ ability to score in this specific matchup is supported by their previous meeting, where they netted twice to secure a 2-1 victory in Belgrade. Furthermore, Serbia’s defensive record throughout the Nations League campaign offers consistent encouragement for the home attack. The visitors have conceded 11 goals in five matches, including three against Germany last week, highlighting an ongoing inability to restrict opposition chances. With Dragojevic and Zivkovic suspended, Serbia face further disruption, providing the Greek forwards with the necessary environment to generate the required two goals.

The clean sheet requirement for Greece is the more demanding component of this scoreline, given they have just conceded seven times in Amsterdam. However, the hosts demonstrated excellent defensive organisation earlier in the group stage, most notably when they shut out Germany in a 1-0 victory. Returning to home soil, Jovanovic’s primary tactical objective will undoubtedly be restoring that defensive shape and preventing the transitional gaps that the Netherlands ruthlessly exploited. A disciplined, controlled performance is essential for their quarter-final hopes, making a cautious, structured approach highly probable.

While Serbia have found the net in four of their five Nations League defeats, their broader form—eight losses in nine matches—indicates a team struggling for sustained rhythm. They also sit on zero points with relegation confirmed, potentially reducing their intensity compared to a Greek side fighting for qualification. The 2-0 prediction relies on the hosts combining their proven ability to score against this opponent with a determined effort to repair their defensive reputation following Friday’s humiliation. An exact-score bet remains inherently fragile, but the contrasting motivations and Serbia’s continuous defensive struggles give this outcome genuine precedent.