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Can Rakow Czestochowa overturn their first-leg deficit and secure a historic quarter-final spot at ArcelorMittal Park? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
Rakow Czestochowa boast incredible home form with four straight Conference League wins. Their record of remaining unbeaten at half time in thirteen consecutive matches demonstrates defensive discipline. As Fiorentina struggle to protect leads, Rakow’s home advantage and superior defensive stats make them strong candidates in this market.
Read Rationale ▾
A 1-1 stalemate aligns with Rakow’s defensive strength (16 clean sheets) and Fiorentina’s attacking volume. Given Fiorentina’s lead from the first leg and their tendency to be vulnerable when defending advantages, a tight scoreline where both sides find the net but remain deadlocked is highly plausible.
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Rakow Czestochowa have work to do, but this tie is far from gone after a narrow 2-1 defeat in the first leg.
Rakow vs Fiorentina — bet365 Market Snapshot
Pricing shown below based on illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds.
Both sides are identically priced in the 1X2 market, reflecting the tension between Rakow’s home form and Fiorentina’s lead.
Rakow’s strong defensive record of 16 clean sheets suggests a tighter contest than Fiorentina’s high shot volume implies.
Rakow’s tendency to settle quickly and Fiorentina’s vulnerability when leading points toward a competitive 1-1 draw.
Rakow have 16 clean sheets in 41 games, highlighting a structure that can resist Fiorentina’s 13.8 shots per game.
Match Preview
Rakow Czestochowa have work to do, but this tie is far from gone. A 2-1 defeat in the first leg means they return to ArcelorMittal Park on Thursday evening with the task clear, the crowd primed and a quarter-final place still firmly within reach.
The mood around this fixture is sharp because both sides arrive with something to prove. Rakow have lost three of their last six in all competitions, yet their home record remains a serious weapon. Fiorentina, meanwhile, come in off a 4-1 away win over Cremonese and now have a lead to protect, but protecting leads has not looked like a strength for them.
Kick-off is 17:45, and the feel of the game should be obvious from the first whistle. Rakow need intent without recklessness. Fiorentina need control without drifting into passivity. That tension is exactly what makes this such a compelling second leg.
Attacking Volume: Shots per Game
Fiorentina generate significantly more attempts at goal, but Rakow’s dangerous attack metrics remain competitive.
Their proactive approach leads to a high frequency of tests for opposition goalkeepers.
Rakow take fewer shots overall but maintain a higher average of dangerous attacks per game.
Defensive Reliability: Season Clean Sheets
Rakow’s defensive structure has been statistically superior over the course of the campaign.
A high shutout rate underpins their strong home record in European competition.
They have found it harder to prevent opponents from scoring compared to their hosts.
Team News & Probable Lineups
Rakow Czestochowa are without T. Pieńko due to a muscle injury. E. Ouma Otieno is out with Achilles heel problems. M. Ilenič is sidelined by a leg injury. V. Kochergin is out with a cruciate ligament tear. Fiorentina have no absences listed here.
Probable Rakow Czestochowa lineup:
Zych; Tudor, Racovitan, Svarnas; Ameyaw, Repka, Struski, Carlos; Ivi, Makuch; Brunes
Probable Fiorentina lineup:
Christensen; Fortini, Comuzzo, Ranieri, Parisi; Ndour, Mandragora, Fabbian; Harrison, Piccoli, Fazzini
The Rakow absences trim their options, especially in midfield areas, so Lukasz Tomczyk may need a disciplined, compact display from the players available rather than a wild, all-out chase. The likely shape still gives Rakow enough legs in wide zones and enough support around Jonatan Braut Brunes to make the home side dangerous.
For Paolo Vanoli, the likely Fiorentina side looks balanced and mobile rather than purely physical. Rolando Mandragora and Cher Ndour can drive the middle of the pitch, while Roberto Piccoli gives them a focal point. The question is whether that group plays on the front foot or starts protecting the aggregate lead too early.
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | Rakow Czestochowa | Fiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| First-leg score | 1 | 2 |
| Last six matches | 2W, 1D, 3L | 3W, 1D, 2L |
| Home/Away last six | 4W, 1D, 1L at home | 4W, 0D, 2L away |
| Goals scored (41 games) | 61 | 54 |
| Goals conceded (41 games) | 41 | 57 |
| Shots per game | 8.61 | 13.8 |
| Possession | 53% | 52% |
| Pass accuracy | 81% | 84% |
| Dangerous attacks per game | 41.0 | 39.98 |
| Clean sheets | 16 | 9 |
Tactical Battle
Rakow do not need to tear this open from the first minute, and that is important. The one-goal deficit is awkward, but not desperate. That should stop this becoming a reckless, stretched game too early, especially with Rakow’s strong record of staying level or ahead before the break in this competition.
The likely Rakow shape gives them natural width through Michael Ameyaw and Jean Carlos, with Ivi López floating into pockets and Patryk Makuch supporting underneath Brunes. That matters because Fiorentina’s weak points are obvious. They can be vulnerable against attacks down the wings, through balls, set pieces and long shots. If Rakow move the ball quickly into wide areas, then attack the box with runners rather than just one target, they can put real stress on Fiorentina’s back line.
There is also a strong case for Rakow leaning on second balls and territory. They average fewer shots, but their overall defensive record is better and their home form is much steadier than their recent away results. At ArcelorMittal Park, they do not need to dominate every minute. They need to make the game uncomfortable, direct and emotionally loud.
Fiorentina, on the other hand, arrive with a clear attacking identity. They attempt crosses often, attempt through balls often and attack through the middle. That makes them dangerous because Rakow cannot simply sit in a low block and wait. Fiorentina have enough pass quality, with an overall 84% pass accuracy, to move defenders around and open gaps between the lines.
The key Fiorentina figures are obvious. Mandragora brings goals from midfield, Albert Gudmundsson has both goals and assists in his overall numbers, and Piccoli offers presence in the final third. Even without starting some of the bigger overall scorers in the probable lineup, the visitors still carry threat because their attack is spread across several players rather than loaded onto one.
The real tension sits in game state. Fiorentina are poor at protecting the lead and have been marked out as very weak at stopping opponents from creating chances. That is a warning sign in a second leg away from home. If they retreat too much after going ahead in the tie, Rakow will feel the door open. If they keep pushing, they risk leaving room for transitions and wide deliveries into the box.
Key Moments to Watch
- Rakow’s start: Their strong run of being unbeaten at half time in Conference League matches makes the opening phase huge. A calm, aggressive first 20 minutes would change the mood immediately.
- Wide areas against Fiorentina: Fiorentina’s issues against wing attacks are a glaring concern here. Rakow should look to drive early balls into dangerous zones and force defenders to turn.
- Midfield control: Mandragora and Ndour against Repka and Struski could shape everything. If Fiorentina play through central areas cleanly, Rakow may spend too much time retreating.
- Set pieces: Fiorentina’s weakness at defending set pieces makes every dead-ball situation dangerous. In a tie this tight, one delivery can flip the whole night.
- Shot volume versus shot value: Fiorentina take more shots, but Rakow’s defensive record suggests they do not give up everything. The question is not just how many chances appear, but who gets the cleaner looks in the box.
What could go wrong?
The danger for Rakow is obvious: emotion turns into impatience, the shape breaks, and Fiorentina pick them off through the middle. The danger for Fiorentina is just as clear: they start thinking only about defending the aggregate lead, invite pressure, and feed Rakow’s belief in front of a strong home crowd.
Match Statistics Highlights
- Rakow have won four straight home games in the Conference League and remain unbeaten at half time in their last 13 matches in the competition.
- Fiorentina average 13.8 shots per game and 92.15 attacks per game, indicating a high volume of offensive pressure.
- Rakow finished the league stage with 14 points and a +7 goal difference, while Fiorentina took nine points with a +3 goal difference.
📊 Market Explainer
Draw No Bet
This market removes the possibility of a draw. You back a team to win; if they do, the bet wins. If the match ends in a draw, the stake is returned. It is an effective way to back a home side while protecting against a stalemate.
Pros: Lower risk than Match Result. Cons: Lower odds than a straight win.
Correct Score
Correct Score requires predicting the exact final result at the end of 90 minutes. It is a high-volatility market that rewards specific tactical analysis of how teams match up defensively and offensively.
Pros: High potential returns. Cons: Very low margin for error.
🎯 Rakow Czestochowa Draw No Bet Rationale
Rakow Czestochowa enter this second leg with a formidable home record at ArcelorMittal Park, having secured four consecutive wins in the Conference League on their own turf. Their ability to start matches with discipline is evidenced by a 13-game unbeaten streak at half time in this competition. While they trail by a single goal, their defensive record is statistically superior to Fiorentina’s, keeping 16 clean sheets across 41 matches compared to the visitors’ 9.
Fiorentina generate high shot volumes but have been identified as weak at protecting leads. Away from home, this vulnerability could be exposed if Rakow utilise Michael Ameyaw and Jean Carlos to attack wide areas. Given Rakow’s consistency at home and Fiorentina’s defensive lapses, backing the hosts with the security of a draw-no-bet covers the scenario of a tight home victory or a hard-fought stalemate.
Tactical Indicators:
- Rakow: 4 consecutive Conference League home wins.
- Fiorentina: Weak at protecting leads and stopping chances.
- Defensive Split: Rakow 41 goals conceded vs Fiorentina 57.
Risk Factor: Rakow are missing four key players through injury, including Kochergin and Ouma Otieno, which may limit midfield rotation.
Key Tactical Mismatch
Unbeaten at HT in 13 straight CL games. Settles quickly at ArcelorMittal Park.
Struggle to maintain aggregate advantages. Vulnerable to sustained wide attacks.
⚔️ Rakow Czestochowa 1-1 Fiorentina Rationale
The 1-1 scoreline is a plausible outcome based on the contrasting styles of these two sides. Fiorentina bring a high offensive volume, averaging 13.8 shots per match and nearly 100 dangerous attacks per game. However, Rakow’s defensive organisation is proven, having conceded significantly fewer goals than Fiorentina over the season. The hosts do not need to chase the game recklessly, which suggests a controlled tempo initially.
Fiorentina’s lack of clean sheets away from home suggests Rakow will find opportunities, particularly through set pieces and wide deliveries where the visitors are vulnerable. Conversely, Fiorentina’s pass accuracy and attacking identity through Mandragora and Piccoli mean they are likely to contribute to the scoreline. A score draw reflects the balance between Rakow’s home resilience and Fiorentina’s attacking weight.
Risk Factor: An early goal for either side could force the game to open up, potentially exceeding the two-goal limit of a 1-1 draw.
⊕ Interactive Q&A
⊕What is a Draw No Bet?
A Draw No Bet is a wager where the draw result is excluded, and your stake is refunded if the match ends in a stalemate. It allows you to support a team while mitigating the risk of a tied scoreline.
⊕Why is Rakow’s home form significant?
Rakow have won four consecutive Conference League home games. ArcelorMittal Park provides a distinct advantage that has seen them remain unbeaten at half time in 13 straight European fixtures.
⊕How does Fiorentina’s shot volume affect the game?
Fiorentina average 13.8 shots per game, much higher than Rakow’s 8.61. This high offensive output suggests they will create numerous scoring opportunities throughout the 90 minutes.
⊕What are the risks of a Correct Score bet?
The Correct Score market is highly sensitive because a single goal at any moment can ruin the prediction. It requires the match to finish exactly on the specified numbers.
⊕Which players are missing for Rakow?
Rakow are missing Pieńko, Ouma Otieno, Ilenič, and Kochergin. These absences trim Lukasz Tomczyk’s options in both midfield and defensive areas.
⊕Does Fiorentina have a disciplinary problem?
While specific card counts aren’t noted, Fiorentina are identified as weak at stopping opponents from creating chances and defending set pieces, which leads to high-pressure defensive situations.
⊕What is the aggregate score entering this leg?
Fiorentina lead 2-1 on aggregate. Rakow need a victory by at least one goal to force extra time or two goals to win the tie outright.
⊕Is Both Teams to Score (BTTS) a good alternative?
BTTS is a viable alternative given Fiorentina’s high attacking volume and their tendency to concede, coupled with Rakow’s necessity to score to stay in the competition.
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