Hajduk Split vs Ajax Predictions

Hajduk Split vs Ajax Preview: Dutch Giants Face Tough Conference League Opener. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.

Ajax begin their 2026-27 Conference League campaign with a challenging trip to Stadion Poljud on Thursday, October 15, as Hajduk Split look to extend their impressive home form against one of European football's most established names.

Three Punchy Stats

• Six unbeaten away: Ajax have won five and drawn one of their six competitive away matches this season.
• Home fortress: Hajduk have won four consecutive home matches and remain unbeaten at Stadion Poljud since April 21.
• Goals expected: Nine of Ajax's last 10 matches have produced at least three goals.

Both clubs are making their debuts in the competition, although their routes to the league phase have been contrasting. Hajduk needed extra time to overcome Rakow, while Ajax advanced through three qualifying rounds with considerable attacking authority.

Hajduk's home strength offers genuine hope

Gonzalo Garcia has transformed Hajduk into a competitive, confident side, with Saturday's 2-1 victory over Dinamo Zagreb providing another indication of their progress.

The Croatian outfit have won eight of their last nine matches and remain unbeaten at Stadion Poljud since April 21. Four consecutive home victories underline their consistency, while scoring at least twice in 10 of their previous 11 home fixtures highlights their attacking threat.

Their return to European group-stage football ends a 15-season absence, giving Thursday's encounter additional significance.

Hajduk's qualification was far from straightforward. After Europa League disappointment against Pafos, they survived a difficult Conference League playoff against Rakow, with Rokas Pukstas eventually delivering the decisive contribution.

Garcia will nevertheless be encouraged by his team's ability to establish early control. Hajduk have scored first in eight of their last 10 matches and led at half time in seven of their previous nine.

That tendency could prove particularly valuable against opponents whose attacking ambition has frequently left defensive vulnerabilities exposed.

Michele Sego represents another significant threat, having scored in each of Hajduk's last four European outings. His movement and finishing could test an Ajax defence struggling to produce clean sheets.

Ajax's attacking quality meets defensive concerns

Ajax arrive with substantial European pedigree, having featured in continental competition throughout the previous nine seasons.

Their first Conference League campaign follows a fifth-place Eredivisie finish, but Michel's side have already demonstrated their potential in the tournament.

Victories over Vojvodina, Shelbourne and Sion produced 22 goals across qualifying, including a remarkable 9-5 aggregate success against the Swiss opposition.

Tolu Arokodare contributed three goals and an assist during the playoffs, establishing himself as an influential attacking presence.

The Dutch visitors have also been outstanding away from home this season, recording five wins and one draw from six competitive fixtures while scoring at least twice in every match.

However, consecutive league draws against Excelsior and NEC have interrupted their momentum.

More concerning is a defence that has conceded in five successive matches. Nine of Ajax's last 10 fixtures have featured at least three goals, suggesting their attacking productivity has often come at the expense of defensive control.

With Hajduk particularly effective at Stadion Poljud, Ajax cannot assume that their superior European experience will translate into a comfortable evening.

Team news and tactical outlook

Ajax must cope without Kasper Dolberg following his serious knee injury, while Caio Henrique, Daley Blind and Steven Berghuis are also unavailable.

Simon Adingra and Aaron Bouwman have returned to action, offering Michel additional options.

Hajduk remain without Roko Brajkovic, Ivica Ivusic and Adrion Pajaziti, although Marko Livaja's return strengthens Garcia's attacking resources.

The midfield contest could be decisive. Ajax possess considerable creativity through Julian Brandt and Davy Klaassen, but Hajduk's ability to seize the initiative at home makes an open encounter plausible.

Hajduk Split vs Ajax prediction

Ajax's away scoring record and greater attacking depth give them a narrow advantage, although Hajduk's home performances suggest the visitors will face sustained resistance.

With both teams capable of creating opportunities and Ajax regularly conceding, a closely contested match featuring goals at both ends appears the most convincing outcome.

Prediction: Hajduk Split 1-2 Ajax

📊 Market Explainer

Main Tip

Handicap Market

Selection: HNK Hajduk Split Asian Handicap +1. A virtual goal advantage or deficit is applied before settlement. The bet is decided by the adjusted score after normal time.

Correct Score Tip

Correct Score Market

Selection: HNK Hajduk Split 1-1 Ajax. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.

🎯 Pick 1: HNK Hajduk Split Asian Handicap +1

Hajduk Split arrive into this European encounter carrying formidable momentum at Stadion Poljud, making them well-equipped to stay highly competitive. The Croatian side have remained unbeaten on home soil since late April and enter this fixture following four consecutive home victories. That reliability is underpinned by a consistent attacking threat, having scored at least twice in 10 of their last 11 home fixtures. With Marko Livaja returning to bolster an attack that recently secured a 2-1 domestic victory over Dinamo Zagreb, the hosts possess the necessary forward presence to threaten their visitors. Given that the Asian Handicap +1 market provides a full payout if Hajduk win or draw—and refunds the stake if they lose by exactly one goal—their proven resilience on their own pitch aligns perfectly with the required settlement conditions.

Ajax present a severe test based on their continental pedigree, yet their recent defensive sequence offers a clear avenue for the hosts to exploit. The Dutch visitors travel with a six-match unbeaten away record this season, but they have also conceded in five successive matches overall. Consecutive domestic draws against Excelsior and NEC indicate that Ajax frequently rely on their attacking output to rescue results. Crucially, Hajduk possess a strong tendency to seize early control, having scored first in eight of their last 10 matches and led at the interval in seven of their previous nine. If the Croatian side can establish an early advantage again, Ajax will be forced to chase the game, playing directly into the handicap requirement.

The clearest counter-argument to this selection lies in Ajax’s raw attacking volume. The visitors produced 22 goals during their qualifying campaign and have scored at least twice in every away fixture this season, meaning they are entirely capable of registering multiple goals. However, Ajax’s inability to secure clean sheets, combined with the absence of important personnel such as Kasper Dolberg and Steven Berghuis, suggests they may struggle to pull away with a comfortable margin. Backing Hajduk Split with a one-goal head start acknowledges the visitors’ offensive quality while firmly respecting the hosts’ impressive domestic and European stability.

🎯 Tactical Indicators

• Hajduk Split have won four consecutive home matches and remain unbeaten at Stadion Poljud since April.
• Ajax have failed to keep a clean sheet in five successive matches across all competitions.
• The hosts have established an early advantage frequently, scoring first in eight of their previous 10 fixtures.

Risk Factor: Ajax have scored at least twice in all six of their competitive away fixtures this season, risking a multi-goal win that would defeat the +1 handicap.

⚔️ Pick 2: HNK Hajduk Split 1-1 Ajax @ 15/2

Backing a 1-1 draw requires clear evidence that both sides are capable of scoring, while also identifying reasons why their respective goal tallies might be restricted to just one. For Hajduk Split, finding the net is strongly supported by their exceptional recent record at Stadion Poljud. The Croatian outfit have scored at least twice in 10 of their last 11 home fixtures, demonstrating a deeply ingrained habit of converting chances in front of their own supporters. Furthermore, forward Michele Sego carries specific continental momentum, having scored in four consecutive European outings. Ajax represent a noticeable step up in overall quality compared to Hajduk’s domestic rivals, but the Dutch side’s failure to secure a clean sheet in five successive matches provides a highly credible foundation for the hosts to register exactly one goal.

Conversely, an Ajax goal is supported by an outstanding attacking record on their travels. The visitors have scored at least twice in all six of their competitive away fixtures this season, with Tolu Arokodare proving influential during the qualifying rounds. Despite the absence of Kasper Dolberg, the return of Simon Adingra ensures they maintain significant forward threat. However, consecutive league draws against Excelsior and NEC indicate a recent dip in their ability to completely overwhelm opponents. Against a disciplined Hajduk side that has won eight of its last nine matches and frequently establishes early control, a single goal is a realistic and measured expectation for the travelling side.

The primary risk to a 1-1 correct score is the historical goal volume associated with Ajax fixtures. Nine of their last 10 matches have featured at least three total goals, highlighting their tendency to become involved in high-scoring shootouts. A single additional goal from either team would immediately defeat this selection. Nevertheless, Hajduk’s ability to manage matches—having led at half time in seven of their previous nine—suggests they possess the organisation to slow the tempo. A 1-1 final score balances both sides’ attacking capabilities while respecting the likelihood of a tightly contested opener.