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Can AZ Alkmaar turn the tie around at AFAS Stadion, or will FC Noah finish the job? Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
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Read Rationale ▾
AZ dominated the first leg with 70% possession despite the loss. At the AFAS Stadion, they are historically strong in Europe, remaining unbeaten in six home matches with three straight clean sheets. Against a Noah side that struggles away from home, AZ should secure a multi-goal margin victory.
Read Rationale ▾
AZ have kept three consecutive clean sheets at home in European competition. Noah’s strategy focuses on structure and low-scoring draws away from home. A controlled 2-0 win for the hosts aligns with their defensive solidity at home and their need to overturn the one-goal deficit efficiently.
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AFAS Stadion is set for a proper European night: AZ Alkmaar chasing a comeback, FC Noah protecting a precious lead. The first leg in Abovyan ended Noah 1-0 AZ.
AZ Alkmaar vs FC Noah — bet365 Snapshot
Key markets and implied probabilities based on match analysis.
AZ’s unbeaten run of six home UEFA Conference League matches makes them heavy favourites to win on the night.
AZ average nearly 16 shots per game, suggesting they have the firepower to cover the goal line at home.
AZ have kept three straight home clean sheets in Europe, making a shut-out victory for the hosts very plausible.
Noah have won just one of their last 10 away European matches, often struggling to breach established home defences.
Match Preview: AZ Alkmaar vs FC Noah
AFAS Stadion is set for a proper European night: AZ Alkmaar chasing a comeback, FC Noah protecting a precious lead. The first leg in Abovyan ended Noah 1-0 AZ, and it stung — AZ had 70% of the ball but couldn’t find the killer touch when the chances arrived. Now Leeroy Echteld’s side come home with momentum from a 3-1 win over Sparta Rotterdam, but also with a nagging worry: AZ haven’t kept a shutout in six matches across all competitions. Noah, led by Sandro Perković, arrive with history in their sights and a clear plan — stay compact, survive the pressure, and punish any wobble.
Match Volume: Shots Per Game
AZ Alkmaar’s offensive pressure at home is reflected in their high shot volume compared to Noah’s more conservative output.
Despite the first-leg result, the hosts consistently generate chances through central attacking routes.
Noah focus on discipline and structure, waiting for clinical counter-attacking opportunities.
Defensive Reliability: Clean Sheets
AZ have managed to shut out European opponents completely in their recent AFAS Stadion appearances.
Noah’s lack of away wins suggests they primarily focus on defensive structure to secure draws.
Key Stats Snapshot
- Home Comforts in Europe: AZ are unbeaten in their last six home UEFA Europa Conference League matches, and they’ve kept three straight clean sheets in those home European games.
- Noah’s Away Grind: Noah have won only one of their last 10 away UEFA Europa Conference League matches, and four of their last six away games across all competitions ended level.
- Shot Volume vs. Shot Quality: AZ average 15.9 shots per match across their recent sample, while Noah sit at 12.34—yet the first leg finished 1-0 with AZ owning 70% possession and still coming up empty.
Team News & Probable Lineups
AZ Alkmaar absences
- Denso Kasius (ankle injury, out until 15.03.2026)
- Kees Smit (unknown injury)
- Jordy Clasie (knee problems)
- Sven Mijnans (hamstring injury)
FC Noah absences
No Noah injuries or suspensions listed.
AZ Alkmaar probable lineup
Zoet; Dijkstra, Penetra, De Wit, Chavez; Boogaard, Koopmeiners, Smit; Jensen, Parrott, Daal
FC Noah probable lineup
Ploshchadnyi; Hambardzumyan, Muradyan, Silva, Zolotic, Sualehe; Ferreira, Eteki, Oshima, Jakolis; Mulahusejnovic
Tale of the Tape
| Metric | AZ Alkmaar | FC Noah |
|---|---|---|
| First-leg score | Lost 0-1 | Won 1-0 |
| Avg shots per game | 15.9 | 12.34 |
| Avg passes per game | 466.35 | 286 |
| Ball possession | 53% | 57% |
| Clean sheets (total) | 14 in 40 games | 10 in 29 games |
| Yellow cards (avg/game) | 2.28 | 2.48 |
Tactical Analysis
AZ’s plan: drown Noah in the middle
AZ’s tendencies point to one thing: possession with purpose. They attack through the centre, keep the ball moving with short passing, and look for those threaded, defence-splitting balls. At home, that approach should be even louder — a front three led by Troy Parrott with Isak Jensen and Ro-Zangelo Daal supplying width, runs, and disruption. The big question is efficiency. AZ created “several presentable scoring chances” in the second half of the first leg and still didn’t score. That’s the danger of a team built to dominate: if the early goal doesn’t come, frustration creeps in and the game gets messy.
Noah’s plan: block the lanes, then break
Noah don’t need pretty. They need discipline. With a five-man defensive line listed and a packed midfield, they can clog the central routes AZ love. If they can force AZ wide, they’ll back themselves to clear crosses and survive waves. Then comes the counter. Noah’s away record in this competition is thin on wins, but rich in stalemates — and that’s not an accident. It’s game management. Every stoppage, every slowed restart, every spell with the ball is a chance to steal oxygen from the crowd and tick the clock down.
Key Moments to Watch
- AZ’s first wave: If AZ start fast, the tie can turn sharp. Watch how quickly Parrott gets service and how often Jensen isolates his full-back.
- Discipline and disruption: Noah average 2.48 yellow cards per game. If they pick up early bookings, their ability to break up play safely gets harder.
- Corners and second balls: AZ average 5.53 corners per match (221 total), Noah 5.31 (154 total). Set-piece pressure can decide tight European ties.
- Game state after the first goal: The match pivots on who scores first — AZ chasing, Noah protecting, and both teams’ nerves showing in the transitions.
📊 Market Explainer
Handicap Betting (-1)
This market assigns a virtual deficit to the favourite. A -1 handicap means AZ Alkmaar start with -1 goals; they must win by two or more goals for the bet to be successful.
Correct Score
A high-volatility market requiring the exact final scoreline. It offers higher rewards because it accounts for specific defensive and offensive match patterns.
🎯 AZ Alkmaar -1 Handicap Analysis
AZ Alkmaar dominated large spells of the first leg, registering 70% possession and a high shot volume of 15.9 per game. Returning to the AFAS Stadion, their European record is formidable; they remain unbeaten in their last six home matches in this competition. The tactical imperative is clear: AZ must win by at least one goal to level the tie, but their superior passing volume (466.35 avg) and home momentum suggest they will push for a more comfortable margin to avoid the lottery of extra time.
⚔️ Tactical Indicators
- AZ are unbeaten in their last six home UEFA Conference League fixtures.
- Noah have secured only one victory in their last 10 away matches in this competition.
- The hosts average over 15 shots per game, showcasing high offensive output.
Risk Factor: AZ have failed to keep a clean sheet in their last six matches across all competitions.
🎯 Correct Score: AZ Alkmaar 2-0 Analysis
While AZ’s domestic defensive record has been shaky, their European home form tells a different story. They have kept three consecutive clean sheets in home UEFA Conference League matches. FC Noah’s away pattern is heavily geared towards defensive structure and game management, often resulting in draws or narrow defeats. A 2-0 scoreline reflects AZ’s need to overturn the deficit while maintaining the defensive discipline they have historically shown at the AFAS Stadion in continental competition.
Risk Factor: Noah’s 2.48 yellow cards per game average suggest they will use tactical fouls to disrupt AZ’s rhythm.
Key Tactical Mismatch
70% possession in first leg and 15.9 shots per match create immense sustained pressure.
Only 1 win in last 10 away European trips, showing a vulnerability when outmatched for territory.
🔍 Interactive Q&A
⊕What does -1 Handicap mean in betting?
What does -1 Handicap mean in betting?
A -1 Handicap means the chosen team starts the game with a one-goal deficit. For the bet to win, the team must win the actual match by at least two clear goals (e.g., 2-0, 3-1).
⊕Is AZ Alkmaar strong at home in Europe?
Is AZ Alkmaar strong at home in Europe?
Yes, AZ are unbeaten in their last six home matches in the UEFA Conference League. They have also kept three consecutive clean sheets in these fixtures, showing defensive reliability at the AFAS Stadion.
⊕How does FC Noah perform away from home?
How does FC Noah perform away from home?
Noah struggle on the road in European competition, winning only one of their last 10 away matches. Their approach is typically defensive, aiming for draws rather than open victories.
⊕What is a Correct Score bet?
What is a Correct Score bet?
A Correct Score bet requires you to predict the exact final score of the match at the end of regulation time. It is a precise market with higher odds due to the difficulty of getting the exact result right.
⊕Why is AZ predicted to win 2-0?
Why is AZ predicted to win 2-0?
This scoreline accounts for AZ’s strong home defensive record (3 clean sheets in a row) and Noah’s inability to win away from home. It also reflects AZ’s need to overturn a 1-0 first-leg loss.
⊕Does possession lead to more goals for AZ?
Does possession lead to more goals for AZ?
While AZ had 70% possession in the first leg without scoring, their high average of 15.9 shots per match suggests they create enough volume to eventually find a breakthrough at home.
⊕How many yellow cards do FC Noah average?
How many yellow cards do FC Noah average?
Noah average 2.48 yellow cards per game. This indicates a physical style of play that aims to break up the opponent’s rhythm, especially when under pressure.
⊕What is the main risk for an AZ win?
What is the main risk for an AZ win?
The main risk is AZ’s recent lack of clean sheets in all competitions (zero in their last six). If Noah score a single counter-attacking goal, AZ’s task becomes significantly harder.
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