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Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn: BVB’s Firepower Meets a Promoted Side Searching for a Goal. Read on for all our free predictions and betting tips.
Dortmund's recent four-match winning streak and strong home record support backing them to win while conceding a goal. Their average of 2.0 goals per game and Guirassy's seven goals in ten matches underline their attacking threat. Paderborn's inability to score yet and Dortmund's defensive absences suggest a competitive but favorable outcome for the hosts.
Dortmund's strong attacking output and Paderborn's defensive record support a 3-1 home win. Dortmund average 2.0 goals per game, while Paderborn concede 1.6 goals and have defensive absences. Paderborn's recent possession and shots on target suggest they can break their goal drought, justifying the single goal in this scoreline.
Borussia Dortmund welcome SC Paderborn to Signal Iduna Park with two very different early-season pictures already emerging.
Borussia Dortmund vs SC Paderborn — bet365 Market Snapshot
Swipe through key markets with illustrative probabilities and sample bet365 odds based on our match analysis.
Dortmund's consistent victories contrast with Paderborn's early struggles, favoring the home side.
Dortmund's recent wins contrast with Paderborn's limited success, indicating home advantage.
High scoring average for Dortmund meets Paderborn's defensive concessions, suggesting goals.
Statistical averages align with the predicted 3-1 exact score outcome.
Three Punchy Stats
- Dortmund have scored five goals from their opening two Bundesliga matches; Paderborn have scored none, giving the fixture its clearest attacking contrast.
- Paderborn failed to register a shot on target against Mainz, then managed three against Freiburg, evidence of improvement without the decisive finish.
- Guirassy has seven goals across Dortmund’s last 10 league games, making his output the strongest individual scoring figure attached to either side.
Match Results
Recent attacking records for Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn are shown below.
Defensive Records
Recent defensive records for Borussia Dortmund and SC Paderborn are shown below.
Dortmund have won both Bundesliga matches, scoring five times, and arrive after a 3-2 Champions League victory over Villarreal. Paderborn, newly promoted after beating Wolfsburg 2-1 on aggregate in the playoff, have taken one point from two league games and are still waiting for their first top-flight goal of the campaign.
The obvious contrast is Dortmund’s attacking output against Paderborn’s lack of cutting edge. The more interesting question is whether the visitors can keep the game controlled for long enough to make that difference less damaging.
Dortmund are producing both volume and reward
Across their last 10 league games, Dortmund have averaged 2.0 goals from 13.3 attempts and 5.0 shots on target. That is a healthy relationship between chance volume and end product, particularly when set beside Paderborn’s defensive averages of 1.6 goals conceded from 11.9 attempts and 5.0 shots on target.
Serhou Guirassy provides the clearest individual threat. He has scored seven times across that 10-match league sample, considerably more than any other Dortmund player listed, and was also among the scorers in the 3-2 win at Hoffenheim.
There is resilience in Dortmund’s recent results too. They trailed Hoffenheim by two before scoring all three goals after the hour mark, then followed that comeback with another 3-2 victory against Villarreal. Four consecutive wins in all competitions point to a side finding ways through matches even when control is imperfect.
Their defensive figures are less overwhelming. Dortmund have conceded an average of 1.0 goal from 10.6 attempts and 4.1 shots on target across their last 10 league matches. Injuries also leave them short of several defensive options, with Emre Can, Filippo Mane and Nico Schlotterbeck unavailable.
Paderborn’s possession needs a sharper end product
Paderborn’s opening two Bundesliga matches have produced no goals. The 0-0 draw at Mainz was secured without a shot on target, while the 1-0 defeat to Freiburg brought a clear improvement: 59% possession and three efforts on goal.
That creates a useful distinction. Paderborn have not necessarily been incapable of getting on the ball; their problem has been turning possession into sufficient threat. Their longer league sample is more encouraging, with averages of 1.4 goals, 12.2 attempts and 4.7 shots on target across 10 matches, but their first two Bundesliga fixtures have offered little attacking return.
Rayan Philippe and Marvin Pieringer are expected to lead the line, with Laurin Ulrich and Gabriel Vidovic supporting them. Sven Michel and Timur Gayret are unavailable, removing further attacking options.
For Paderborn, avoiding long stretches without meaningful penetration looks as important as the amount of possession they record. Having the ball is only useful here if Dortmund are forced to defend with it.
The midfield absences add a wrinkle for Dortmund
Dortmund are also missing Samuele Inacio, Justin Lerma and Giannis Konstantelias in midfield. Jobe Bellingham and Felix Nmecha are expected to operate centrally, with Ethan Nwaneri and Marcel Sabitzer among those supporting Guirassy.
That reduced depth may matter after Tuesday’s Champions League match, although Dortmund’s recent results suggest their attacking production has survived disruption so far. Their four wins from the last five home outings strengthen that impression.
📊 Market Explainer
Win & Both Teams to Score
Selection: Dortmund to win and Both Teams to Score. The selected team must win in normal time and both teams must score. If the selected team draws or loses, or either side fails to score, the bet loses.
Correct Score Market
Selection: Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 3-1. Predict the exact score at the end of 90 minutes plus stoppage time. Extra time and penalties do not count unless the bookmaker states otherwise.
🎯 Pick 1: Dortmund to win and Both Teams to Score @ 13/10
Borussia Dortmund enter this fixture following four consecutive victories across all competitions, including two Bundesliga wins where they scored five times. Their ten-match league average of 2.0 goals from 13.3 attempts and 5.0 shots on target highlights an established forward threat, particularly with Serhou Guirassy scoring seven goals in that span. Playing at Signal Iduna Park, where BVB have claimed four victories from their last five outings, provides a strong foundation against a promoted side still adjusting to top-flight demands.
SC Paderborn have suffered a goalless start to their league campaign, but their wider ten-match league sample shows an average of 1.4 goals from 12.2 attempts and 4.7 shots on target. They controlled 59% possession against Freiburg and generated three shots on target, indicating an ability to build attacks despite failing to score. Dortmund’s defensive setup faces notable absences, with defenders Emre Can, Filippo Mane, and Nico Schlotterbeck all unavailable, which aligns with BVB conceding 1.0 goal per game across their last ten league matches.
While Paderborn failed to register a shot on target against Mainz, Dortmund’s recent matches demonstrate defensive vulnerability, having conceded twice against both Hoffenheim and Villarreal. BVB needed three late goals to overturn a two-goal deficit at Hoffenheim, showing that while their attacking volume consistently creates chances, their depleted backline gives opposition attacks opportunities to score. Combined with Paderborn’s historical ten-game goal average, backing Dortmund to claim victory while conceding a goal represents a balanced selection.
🎯 Tactical Indicators
- Dortmund have scored five goals across two league wins and average 2.0 goals per game over their last 10 league matches.
- SC Paderborn average 1.4 goals per match over their 10-game league sample and recorded 59% possession against Freiburg.
- Dortmund are missing key defensive options Emre Can, Filippo Mane, and Nico Schlotterbeck while conceding 1.0 goal per game over 10 league outings.
Risk Factor: If Paderborn fail to register a shot on target again, Dortmund could win to nil, voiding the Both Teams to Score condition.
Key Tactical Mismatch
7 goals in last 10 league matches, supported by a team average of 5.0 shots on target per game.
Conceding an average of 1.6 goals and 5.0 shots on target per match across 10 league fixtures.
⚔️ Pick 2: Dortmund vs SC Paderborn 3-1 @ 8/1
Justifying a 3-1 home victory requires examining both Dortmund’s high-volume attacking output and Paderborn’s defensive profile. Dortmund have scored at least three goals in two of their most recent fixtures, including a 3-2 victory over Villarreal and a 3-2 comeback against Hoffenheim. Across their last ten league matches, BVB average 2.0 goals per game, but facing a Paderborn side conceding an average of 1.6 goals from 11.9 attempts and 5.0 shots on target increases the likelihood of Dortmund scoring three times.
To account for Paderborn’s single goal, the evidence rests on Dortmund’s defensive absences and recent match patterns. With Emre Can, Filippo Mane, and Nico Schlotterbeck missing from the backline, Dortmund have allowed an average of 10.6 attempts per match over their last ten league games. Paderborn generated three shots on target and held 59% possession in their defeat to Freiburg, while their longer ten-game league sample averages 1.4 goals scored per match, showing they possess the baseline figures to break their current goal drought.
The primary risk to a 3-1 scoreline is Paderborn’s potential failure to score, given they were restricted to zero shots on target against Mainz. Conversely, Dortmund’s potent attack, spearheaded by Serhou Guirassy’s seven goals in ten league matches, could push BVB past three goals if Paderborn’s defence crumbles under sustained pressure. Because exact score bets are inherently sensitive to a single goal margin, this prediction balances Dortmund’s attacking strength against their current defensive vacancies.
Risk Factor: Paderborn's failure to score or Dortmund conceding fewer goals could invalidate the 3-1 exact score prediction.
Frequently Asked Questions
What needs to happen for Dortmund to win and Both Teams to Score to settle as a winning bet?
Dortmund must win and Paderborn must score at least one goal for this bet to win.
How does the Correct Score market work for Dortmund vs SC Paderborn?
You must predict the exact final score at the end of regulation time for this market.
Why is Dortmund favored heavily in this fixture?
Dortmund have won both opening league games and have strong home form with four wins in five matches.
What evidence suggests SC Paderborn can score at Signal Iduna Park?
Paderborn held 59% possession and had three shots on target against Freiburg, showing attacking potential.
Who is Dortmund's primary goal threat for this match?
Serhou Guirassy leads Dortmund's attack with seven goals in their last ten league matches.
What defensive issues are affecting Borussia Dortmund?
Dortmund are missing key defenders and have conceded two goals in consecutive recent matches.
